PSV Eindhoven
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
PSV Eindhoven were clear favourites.
PSV Eindhoven were the stronger side on L90 Strength (76 vs 17). PSV Eindhoven usually keep the ball (59% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. PSV Eindhoven had 83.2 days of rest, Fortuna Sittard 83.2 and had to travel 56 km.
Away travel56 kmRest days83.2 · 83.2Matches / 14d0 · 0
PSV Eindhoven84%
Draw10%
Fortuna Sittard5%
PSV Eindhoven82%
Draw12%
Fortuna Sittard6%
PSV Eindhoven84%
Draw10%
Fortuna Sittard5%
PSV Eindhoven79%
Draw13%
Fortuna Sittard8%
PSV Eindhoven83%
Draw11%
Fortuna Sittard6%
Over 2.5 73%
Both score 48%
Likeliest score 3–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Eindhoven)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsAlex Bos
- Cards per match 3.5
- Penalties per match 0.29
- Matches 41
Team strength
PSV Eindhoven
Fortuna Sittard
76
L90 StrengthIn forecast
17
71
Current StrengthIn forecast
21
60
AttackIn forecast
19
64
DefenceIn forecast
19
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Form indexContext
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In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisFortuna Sittard
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
PSV EindhovenFortuna Sittard
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Goals scoredVia Att/Def
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—
Goals concededVia Att/Def
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xGVia Att/Def
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xG allowedVia Att/Def
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—
Goals minus xGContext
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Scored inContext
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Clean sheetsContext
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ShotsContext
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—
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
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—
On target shareContext
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—
Shots in the boxContext
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—
Box shareContext
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ConversionContext
—
—
OffsidesContext
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—
Shots allowedContext
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On target allowedVia Att/Def
—
—
BlocksContext
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—
Goalkeeper savesContext
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Save rateContext
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PossessionIn forecast
—
—
PassesContext
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Accurate passesContext
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Pass accuracyContext
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Team ratingContext
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FoulsContext
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Fouls sufferedContext
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Yellow cardsContext
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Red cardsContext
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3.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.30
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.00
2.13
xGVia Att/Def
1.36
1.34
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.97
+0.97
Goals minus xGContext
-0.06
100%
Scored inContext
80%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
16.30
ShotsContext
11.90
7.60
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.30
47%
On target shareContext
36%
11.40
Shots in the boxContext
7.50
70%
Box shareContext
63%
19%
ConversionContext
11%
1.86
OffsidesContext
2.20
12.30
Shots allowedContext
14.10
5.10
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.20
4.00
BlocksContext
3.70
3.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.33
69%
Save rateContext
60%
61%
PossessionIn forecast
43%
517
PassesContext
330
447
Accurate passesContext
246
87%
Pass accuracyContext
75%
7.15
Team ratingContext
6.88
8.90
FoulsContext
9.60
7.60
Fouls sufferedContext
10.70
1.40
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
PSV Eindhoven
Rest83.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Fortuna Sittard
Rest83.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel56 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| PSV Eindhoven |
Fortuna Sittard |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 83.2Eredivisie 2025-2026, 17 May | 83.2Eredivisie 2025-2026, 17 May |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 56 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 0 | 0 / 0 / 0 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
PSV Eindhoven
Confirmed XI
32M. Kovář(G)
17Mauro Júnior
4A. Obispo
6R. Flamingo
5I. Perišić
31N. Fernandez
10P. Wanner
7R. van Bommel
21S. Mijnans
20G. Til
9R. Pepi
Fortuna Sittard
Confirmed XI
31M. Branderhorst(G)
8J. Dahlhaus
28J. Hubner
6S. van Ottele
12Ivo Pinto
2S. Wylin
5Y. Oukili
23P. Brittijn
52M. Ihattaren
10O. Romeny
25L. Zeefuik
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences PSV Eindhoven
Absences are shown before kick-off
Fortuna Sittard
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- PSV Eindhoven+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Fortuna Sittard+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
PSV Eindhoven · Home
No home games yet this season.
Fortuna Sittard · Away
No away games yet this season.
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings
5 PSV Eindhoven wins0 draws0 Fortuna Sittard wins
Goals per game3.40 – 1.20
Over 2.5100%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 17 Jan 2026Fortuna Sittard1–2PSV Eindhoven
- 31 Oct 2025PSV Eindhoven5–2Fortuna Sittard
- 3 May 2025PSV Eindhoven4–1Fortuna Sittard
- 22 Sep 2024Fortuna Sittard1–3PSV Eindhoven
- 21 Oct 2023PSV Eindhoven3–1Fortuna Sittard
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| PSV Eindhoven | Fortuna Sittard | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | — | — | |
| Conceded per game | — | — | |
| Match goals | — | — | 3.81 |
| Over 1.5 | — | — | |
| Over 2.5 | — | — | 73% |
| Over 3.5 | — | — | |
| Both teams scored | — | — | 48% |
| Clean sheets | — | — | |
| Failed to score | — | — | |
| Games | 0 | 0 |
| PSV Eindhoven | Fortuna Sittard | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 3.10 | 1.30 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.60 | 2.00 | |
| Match goals | 4.70 | 3.30 | 3.81 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 90% | 70% | 73% |
| Over 3.5 | 80% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 90% | 80% | 48% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| PSV Eindhoven | Fortuna Sittard | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | — | — | |
| Corners conceded | — | — | |
| Match total | — | — | 12.33 |
| Over 8.5 | — | — | |
| Over 9.5 | — | — | |
| Over 10.5 | — | — | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | — | — | |
| Opponent cards | — | — | |
| Match total | — | — | 2.33 |
| Over 3.5 | — | — | |
| Over 4.5 | — | — | |
| PSV Eindhoven | Fortuna Sittard | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.50 | 4.22 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.70 | 6.22 | |
| Match total | 11.20 | 10.44 | 12.33 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 70% 7/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 60% 6/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.50 | 1.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.20 | 1.00 | |
| Match total | 2.70 | 2.70 | 2.33 |
| Over 3.5 | 10% 1/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 10% 1/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Alex Bos Netherlands · 41 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.20league 2.33
Red cards0.27league 0.00
Cards 5+22%league 0%
Fouls22.4league 21.0
Penalties0.29league 0.00
Home wins41%league 33%
PSV Eindhoven4 with this referee
Record4-0-0
Cards · opp.2.5 · 1.3
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W11 Apr 26A · Sparta Rotterdam2–06
- W4 Oct 25A · PEC Zwolle4–03
- W24 Feb 24A · PEC Zwolle7–10
- W23 Sep 23A · Almere City FC4–01
Fortuna Sittard7 with this referee
Record3-2-2
Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.4
Pens for · against0 · 1
Reds1
- D7 Feb 26H · Sparta Rotterdam2–23
- D11 Jan 26A · GO Ahead Eagles2–21
- L19 Oct 25A · Excelsior0–13
- L12 Apr 25H · Feyenoord0–22
- W22 Dec 24A · Utrecht5–23
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
PSV EindhovenFortuna SittardPSV Eindhoven10 games · scored 31 · conceded 16
5
4
0-15
2
3
16-30
6
2
31-45
6
1
46-60
3
3
61-75
9
3
76-90
Fortuna Sittard10 games · scored 13 · conceded 20
2
4
0-15
4
2
16-30
1
1
31-45
4
3
46-60
2
4
61-75
6
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
