PSV Eindhoven
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
PSV Eindhoven84.1%fair odds 1.19
Draw10.9%fair odds 9.20
Fortuna Sittard5.0%fair odds 20.00
Expected goals3.11 – 0.70total 3.81
Likeliest score3–011.1%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Fortuna Sittard
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| PSV Eindhoven ↓ · Fortuna Sittard → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 5.1 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 10.7 | 7.5 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 11.1 | 7.8 | 2.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 8.7 | 6.0 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 5.4 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 4.7 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are PSV Eindhoven goals, columns Fortuna Sittard goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 3–011.1%8.98
- 2–010.7%9.32
- 4–08.7%11.54
- 3–17.8%12.88
- 2–17.5%13.36
- 1–06.6%15.06
- 4–16.0%16.55
- 5–05.4%18.54
- 1–15.1%19.74
- 5–13.8%26.58
Winning margin
45.8%
PSV Eindhoven by 3+
fair 2.18
20.9%
PSV Eindhoven by 2
fair 4.78
17.4%
PSV Eindhoven by 1
fair 5.75
10.9%
Draw
fair 9.20
3.7%
Fortuna Sittard by 1
fair 27.04
1.1%
Fortuna Sittard by 2
fair 95.06
0.2%
Fortuna Sittard by 3+
fair 402.81
Goal distribution
Total goals
2%0
8%1
16%2
20%3
19%4
33%5+
PSV Eindhoven goals
4%0
14%1
22%2
22%3
38%4+
Fortuna Sittard goals
50%0
35%1
12%2
3%3
1%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| PSV Eindhoven win | 84.1% | 83.2% | +0.9 pp |
| Draw | 10.9% | 11.4% | -0.6 pp |
| Fortuna Sittard win | 5.0% | 5.4% | -0.4 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 73.3% | 72.1% | +1.2 pp |
| Both teams score | 48.2% | 48.4% | -0.1 pp |
| Expected goals PSV Eindhoven | 3.11 | 3.04 | +0.08 |
| Expected goals Fortuna Sittard | 0.70 | 0.70 | -0.01 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- PSV Eindhoven win84.1%1.19
- Draw10.9%9.20
- Fortuna Sittard win5.0%20.00
- Double chance PSV Eindhoven or draw95.0%1.05
- Double chance PSV Eindhoven or Fortuna Sittard89.1%1.12
- Double chance Fortuna Sittard or draw15.9%6.30
- Draw no bet PSV Eindhoven94.4%1.06
- Draw no bet Fortuna Sittard5.6%17.83
Goals
- Over 0.597.5%1.03
- Over 1.589.6%1.12
- Over 2.573.3%1.36
- Over 3.552.8%1.89
- Over 4.533.4%3.00
- Under 1.510.4%9.61
- Under 2.526.7%3.74
- Under 3.547.2%2.12
Both teams to score
- Yes48.2%2.07
- No51.8%1.93
- Yes and over 2.543.2%2.32
- PSV Eindhoven win and yes36.8%2.72
- Draw and yes8.4%11.90
- Fortuna Sittard win and yes3.0%33.13
Team goals
- PSV Eindhoven over 0.595.5%1.05
- PSV Eindhoven over 1.581.7%1.22
- PSV Eindhoven over 2.560.1%1.66
- Fortuna Sittard over 0.550.2%1.99
- Fortuna Sittard over 1.515.5%6.45
- Fortuna Sittard over 2.53.4%29.54
- PSV Eindhoven clean sheet49.8%2.01
- Fortuna Sittard clean sheet4.5%22.47
- PSV Eindhoven win to nil47.3%2.11
- Fortuna Sittard win to nil2.0%50.49
Handicap
- PSV Eindhoven −1.566.7%1.50
- PSV Eindhoven −2.545.8%2.18
- Fortuna Sittard +1.533.3%3.01
- Fortuna Sittard +2.554.2%1.85
- Fortuna Sittard −1.51.3%76.91
- PSV Eindhoven +1.598.7%1.01
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Eredivisie 2026-2027
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored3
Favourite won33.3%
Avg chance given to result34.1%
1X2 Brier0.714
Over 2.5 called right100.0%
BTTS called right66.7%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 40–50% | 1 | 47.6% | 0.0% |
| 50–60% | 2 | 56.2% | 50.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 0 of 3 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | — | — |
| Avg chance given to result | — | — |
| Favourite won | — | — |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off.
No verified pre-match bookmaker odds are available for comparison yet.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 3 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.