PSV Eindhoven
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
PSV Eindhoven were clear favourites.
PSV Eindhoven were the stronger side on L90 Strength (76 vs 30). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Groningen. PSV Eindhoven had 7.8 days of rest, Groningen 7.1 and had to travel 211 km.
Away travel211 kmRest days7.8 · 7.1Matches / 14d1 · 2
PSV Eindhoven72%
Draw16%
Groningen12%
PSV Eindhoven73%
Draw17%
Groningen10%
PSV Eindhoven72%
Draw16%
Groningen12%
PSV Eindhoven65%
Draw19%
Groningen16%
PSV Eindhoven71%
Draw17%
Groningen12%
Over 2.5 70%
Both score 58%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Eindhoven)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsAllard Lindhout
- Cards per match 3.6
- Penalties per match 0.17
- Matches 81
Team strength
PSV Eindhoven
Groningen
76
L90 StrengthIn forecast
30
71
Current StrengthIn forecast
30
60
AttackIn forecast
41
64
DefenceIn forecast
21
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisGroningen
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
PSV EindhovenGroningen
2.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
3.00
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
2.28
xGVia Att/Def
2.38
0.76
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.64
-0.28
Goals minus xGContext
+0.62
100%
Scored inContext
100%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
20.50
ShotsContext
16.50
7.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
9.50
34%
On target shareContext
58%
16.00
Shots in the boxContext
12.00
78%
Box shareContext
72%
10%
ConversionContext
18%
—
OffsidesContext
2.00
6.50
Shots allowedContext
12.00
4.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.50
—
BlocksContext
—
2.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.50
63%
Save rateContext
82%
68%
PossessionIn forecast
52%
681
PassesContext
430
597
Accurate passesContext
341
88%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
7.01
Team ratingContext
7.19
6.00
FoulsContext
11.50
7.50
Fouls sufferedContext
14.00
0.50
Yellow cardsContext
0.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
3.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.80
1.70
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
2.05
xGVia Att/Def
1.62
1.19
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.50
+0.95
Goals minus xGContext
+0.18
100%
Scored inContext
80%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
16.50
ShotsContext
14.70
7.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.90
42%
On target shareContext
40%
11.30
Shots in the boxContext
9.50
68%
Box shareContext
64%
18%
ConversionContext
12%
1.71
OffsidesContext
2.00
10.90
Shots allowedContext
12.20
5.10
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.40
3.25
BlocksContext
3.33
3.40
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
67%
Save rateContext
68%
61%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
544
PassesContext
405
470
Accurate passesContext
318
86%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
7.11
Team ratingContext
6.96
8.00
FoulsContext
10.80
7.30
Fouls sufferedContext
10.50
1.20
Yellow cardsContext
1.10
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
PSV Eindhoven
DW
Rest7.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km174 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 51 · 4 pts vs 3.9 for an average club · -0.4 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| PSV Eindhoven |
Groningen |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.8Eredivisie 2026-2027, 15 Aug | 7.1Eredivisie 2026-2027, 16 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 211 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 174 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 2 | 0 / 2 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.9 | 5.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context. Some venues have no coordinates yet.
Squad & lineups
PSV Eindhoven
Confirmed XI
32M. Kovář(G)
17Mauro Júnior
4A. Obispo
6R. Flamingo
8S. Dest
31N. Fernandez
24K. Sano
20G. Til
7R. van Bommel
9R. Pepi
5I. Perišić
Groningen
Confirmed XI
1E. Vaessen(G)
2W. Prins
4M. Csinger
3T. Blokzijl
14J. Schreuders
18T. Land
8T. de Jonge
24P. Clement
26T. van Bergen
17D. van der Werff
9B. Willumsson
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences PSV Eindhoven
Absences are shown before kick-off
Groningen
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- PSV Eindhoven+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Groningen+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
PSV Eindhoven · Home
1.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-0
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 2.00
Groningen · Away
3.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-0
- Scored
- 4.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
4 PSV Eindhoven wins0 draws0 Groningen wins
Goals per game3.50 – 1.00
Over 2.5100%
Both scored75%
Clean sheets25% · 0%
- 8 Feb 2026Groningen1–2PSV Eindhoven
- 23 Aug 2025PSV Eindhoven4–2Groningen
- 5 Apr 2025Groningen1–3PSV Eindhoven
- 23 Nov 2024PSV Eindhoven5–0Groningen
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| PSV Eindhoven | Groningen | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.00 | 3.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 3.50 | 4.00 | 3.59 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 100% | 70% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 100% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | |
| Games | 2 | 2 |
| PSV Eindhoven | Groningen | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 3.00 | 1.90 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.70 | 1.10 | |
| Match goals | 4.70 | 3.00 | 3.59 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 90% | 70% | 70% |
| Over 3.5 | 80% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 90% | 70% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| PSV Eindhoven | Groningen | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 7.00 | 3.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 1.00 | 3.00 | |
| Match total | 8.00 | 6.50 | 10.81 |
| Over 8.5 | 0% 0/1 | 0% 0/2 | |
| Over 9.5 | 0% 0/1 | 0% 0/2 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/1 | 0% 0/2 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 0.50 | 0.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Match total | 1.50 | 1.50 | 2.24 |
| Over 3.5 | 0% 0/2 | 0% 0/2 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/2 | 0% 0/2 | |
| PSV Eindhoven | Groningen | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.89 | 5.22 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.33 | 5.33 | |
| Match total | 11.22 | 10.55 | 10.81 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 6/9 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 6/9 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 56% 5/9 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.30 | 1.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.10 | 0.60 | |
| Match total | 2.40 | 1.70 | 2.24 |
| Over 3.5 | 10% 1/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 10% 1/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Allard Lindhout Netherlands · 81 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.43league 2.14
Red cards0.19league 0.09
Cards 5+31%league 9%
Fouls19.9league 20.9
Penalties0.17league 0.00
Home wins36%league 32%
PSV Eindhoven9 with this referee
Record7-2-0
Cards · opp.0.9 · 1.7
Pens for · against0 · 1
- D2 May 26A · Ajax2–22
- W1 Feb 26H · Feyenoord3–01
- W26 Oct 25A · Feyenoord3–21
- W12 Apr 25H · Almere City FC5–00
- D8 Feb 25H · Willem II1–10
Groningen3 with this referee
Record1-0-2
Cards · opp.1.0 · 2.7
Pens for · against0 · 1
- L9 Nov 25A · NEC Nijmegen0–21
- W16 Mar 25H · Fortuna Sittard1–00
- L6 Oct 24A · Ajax1–32
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
PSV Eindhoven2 games · scored 4 · conceded 3
1
0-15
16-30
1
31-45
2
1
46-60
1
61-75
1
76-90
Groningen2 games · scored 6 · conceded 2
2
0-15
1
16-30
1
31-45
1
1
46-60
61-75
1
1
76-90
PSV Eindhoven10 games · scored 30 · conceded 17
4
3
0-15
2
3
16-30
4
3
31-45
8
2
46-60
4
3
61-75
8
3
76-90
Groningen10 games · scored 18 · conceded 12
4
1
0-15
1
3
16-30
4
1
31-45
5
2
46-60
2
61-75
4
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
