PSV Eindhoven
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
PSV Eindhoven72.0%fair odds 1.39
Draw16.6%fair odds 6.04
Groningen11.4%fair odds 8.75
Expected goals2.61 – 0.98total 3.59
Likeliest score2–09.4%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Groningen
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| PSV Eindhoven ↓ · Groningen → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 7.4 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.2 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 8.2 | 8.0 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 5.4 | 5.2 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 2.8 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 1.9 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are PSV Eindhoven goals, columns Groningen goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 2–09.4%10.59
- 2–19.2%10.86
- 3–08.2%12.17
- 3–18.0%12.47
- 1–17.4%13.47
- 1–06.9%14.59
- 4–05.4%18.63
- 4–15.2%19.10
- 2–24.5%22.27
- 3–23.9%25.58
Winning margin
30.6%
PSV Eindhoven by 3+
fair 3.27
20.5%
PSV Eindhoven by 2
fair 4.88
20.9%
PSV Eindhoven by 1
fair 4.78
16.6%
Draw
fair 6.04
7.6%
Groningen by 1
fair 13.20
2.9%
Groningen by 2
fair 34.99
1.0%
Groningen by 3+
fair 101.26
Goal distribution
Total goals
3%0
9%1
18%2
21%3
19%4
29%5+
PSV Eindhoven goals
7%0
19%1
25%2
22%3
27%4+
Groningen goals
38%0
37%1
18%2
6%3
2%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| PSV Eindhoven win | 72.0% | 70.5% | +1.5 pp |
| Draw | 16.6% | 17.5% | -0.9 pp |
| Groningen win | 11.4% | 12.0% | -0.6 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 69.5% | 66.8% | +2.7 pp |
| Both teams score | 58.1% | 56.7% | +1.4 pp |
| Expected goals PSV Eindhoven | 2.61 | 2.49 | +0.12 |
| Expected goals Groningen | 0.98 | 0.95 | +0.02 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- PSV Eindhoven win72.0%1.39
- Draw16.6%6.04
- Groningen win11.4%8.75
- Double chance PSV Eindhoven or draw88.6%1.13
- Double chance PSV Eindhoven or Groningen83.4%1.20
- Double chance Groningen or draw28.0%3.57
- Draw no bet PSV Eindhoven86.3%1.16
- Draw no bet Groningen13.7%7.30
Goals
- Over 0.596.9%1.03
- Over 1.587.7%1.14
- Over 2.569.5%1.44
- Over 3.548.2%2.07
- Over 4.529.1%3.44
- Under 1.512.3%8.12
- Under 2.530.5%3.28
- Under 3.551.8%1.93
Both teams to score
- Yes58.1%1.72
- No41.9%2.39
- Yes and over 2.550.7%1.97
- PSV Eindhoven win and yes37.5%2.67
- Draw and yes13.4%7.46
- Groningen win and yes7.2%13.84
Team goals
- PSV Eindhoven over 0.592.7%1.08
- PSV Eindhoven over 1.573.5%1.36
- PSV Eindhoven over 2.548.4%2.06
- Groningen over 0.562.3%1.61
- Groningen over 1.525.5%3.92
- Groningen over 2.57.6%13.19
- PSV Eindhoven clean sheet37.7%2.65
- Groningen clean sheet7.3%13.62
- PSV Eindhoven win to nil34.6%2.89
- Groningen win to nil4.2%23.81
Handicap
- PSV Eindhoven −1.551.1%1.96
- PSV Eindhoven −2.530.6%3.27
- Groningen +1.548.9%2.05
- Groningen +2.569.4%1.44
- Groningen −1.53.8%26.00
- PSV Eindhoven +1.596.2%1.04
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Eredivisie 2026-2027
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored22
Favourite won54.5%
Avg chance given to result40.2%
1X2 Brier0.623
Over 2.5 called right72.7%
BTTS called right63.6%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 3 | 38.9% | 33.3% |
| 40–50% | 4 | 44.4% | 50.0% |
| 50–60% | 9 | 56.4% | 66.7% |
| 60–70% | 5 | 65.5% | 60.0% |
| 80%+ | 1 | 84.4% | 0.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 0 of 22 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | — | — |
| Avg chance given to result | — | — |
| Favourite won | — | — |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off.
No verified pre-match bookmaker odds are available for comparison yet.
Latest results
- ✓GO Ahead Eagles 3–1 ADO Den Haag65·19·17
- ✗Heerenveen 0–2 PEC Zwolle61·21·17
- ✗Sparta Rotterdam 3–3 Utrecht39·25·36
- ✓Fortuna Sittard 0–2 AZ Alkmaar23·23·54
- ✗Ajax 2–2 Heerenveen60·22·19
- ✓Twente 3–1 PEC Zwolle68·19·13
- ✗Feyenoord 2–2 GO Ahead Eagles69·18·14
- ✓ADO Den Haag 1–4 Groningen33·25·42
- ✓Fortuna Sittard 3–1 Cambuur47·25·28
- ✓Excelsior 1–2 PSV Eindhoven23·22·55
Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 22 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.