PSV Eindhoven
Attack—
Defense risk—
PSV Eindhoven
1st · 59 pts · 23 played
WDWWL
First leg2–0
3–1Full time
Heerenveen
8th · 31 pts · 23 played
LDLWW
Our take
PSV Eindhoven were clear favourites.
PSV Eindhoven were the stronger side on L90 Strength (78 vs 27). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Heerenveen. PSV Eindhoven had 7.9 days of rest, Heerenveen 6.2 and had to travel 171 km.
Away travel171 kmRest days7.9 · 6.2Matches / 14d2 · 3
PSV Eindhoven77%
Draw15%
Heerenveen9%
PSV Eindhoven76%
Draw16%
Heerenveen8%
PSV Eindhoven77%
Draw15%
Heerenveen8%
PSV Eindhoven70%
Draw18%
Heerenveen12%
PSV Eindhoven75%
Draw16%
Heerenveen9%
Over 2.5 69%
Both score 54%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Eindhoven)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsRob Dieperink
- Cards per match 3.4
- Penalties per match 0.23
- Matches 30
Team strength
PSV EindhovenHeerenveen
78
L90 StrengthIn forecast
27
71
Current StrengthIn forecast
31
60
AttackIn forecast
36
64
DefenceIn forecast
40
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisHeerenveen
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
PSV EindhovenHeerenveen
2.91
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.70
1.22
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.70
1.95
xGVia Att/Def
1.59
1.05
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.20
+0.96
Goals minus xGContext
+0.11
96%
Scored inContext
78%
26%
Clean sheetsContext
9%
17.04
ShotsContext
14.96
6.91
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.50
41%
On target shareContext
35%
11.74
Shots in the boxContext
9.64
69%
Box shareContext
64%
17%
ConversionContext
11%
2.00
OffsidesContext
2.00
10.78
Shots allowedContext
10.78
3.73
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.65
3.21
BlocksContext
2.61
2.70
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.96
68%
Save rateContext
64%
61%
PossessionIn forecast
52%
552
PassesContext
437
480
Accurate passesContext
352
87%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
7.06
Team ratingContext
6.81
11.35
FoulsContext
11.22
8.52
Fouls sufferedContext
10.22
1.30
Yellow cardsContext
1.43
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
2.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.70
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.70
1.85
xGVia Att/Def
1.07
1.28
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.13
+0.35
Goals minus xGContext
+0.63
90%
Scored inContext
70%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
15.10
ShotsContext
14.30
6.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.67
40%
On target shareContext
36%
10.30
Shots in the boxContext
8.90
64%
Box shareContext
63%
15%
ConversionContext
12%
1.75
OffsidesContext
2.00
10.10
Shots allowedContext
11.70
3.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.10
2.75
BlocksContext
2.40
2.38
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.50
59%
Save rateContext
69%
60%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
533
PassesContext
450
458
Accurate passesContext
366
86%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.92
Team ratingContext
6.74
10.50
FoulsContext
11.70
8.20
Fouls sufferedContext
8.40
2.10
Yellow cardsContext
1.30
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
PSV Eindhoven
Rest7.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km663 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Heerenveen
Rest6.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel171 km371 km in 14d
Schedule load15%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| PSV Eindhoven |
Heerenveen |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 15 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.9Eredivisie 2025-2026, 13 Feb | 6.2Eredivisie 2025-2026, 15 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 171 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 663 km | 371 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 3 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 6.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
PSV Eindhoven
Confirmed XI
32M. Kovář(G)
17Mauro Júnior
3Yarek Gąsiorowski
22J. Schouten
8S. Dest
23J. Veerman
10P. Wanner
5I. Perišić
34I. Saibari
27D. Man
21M. Boadu
Heerenveen
Confirmed XI
22B. Klaverboer(G)
28H. Petrov
3M. Willemsen
4S. Kersten
45O. Braude
6J. van Overeem
16M. Linday
11L. Oyen
10R. Meerveld
20J. Trenskow
18L. Nordås
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences PSV Eindhoven
Scores -0.10 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Heerenveen
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.09 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- PSV Eindhoven-0.4 pp
- Draw+0.2 pp
- Heerenveen+0.2 pp
Home / Away this season
PSV Eindhoven · Home
2.36points per game · 11 home games
- W-D-L
- 8-2-1
- Scored
- 3.27
- Conceded
- 1.45
Heerenveen · Away
1.27points per game · 11 away games
- W-D-L
- 4-2-5
- Scored
- 1.55
- Conceded
- 1.64
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | PSV Eindhoven | Heerenveen |
|---|---|---|
| FC Volendam | L 1–2 AW 3–0 H | D 1–1 H |
| Groningen | W 2–1 AW 4–2 H | L 0–2 HL 1–2 A |
| Feyenoord | W 3–0 HW 3–2 A | D 2–2 HL 0–1 A |
| NAC Breda | D 2–2 HW 1–0 A | D 3–3 H |
| Fortuna Sittard | W 2–1 AW 5–2 H | L 0–2 A |
| Excelsior | W 5–1 HW 2–1 A | W 2–1 H |
| Utrecht | W 2–1 A | D 1–1 HD 2–2 A |
| Heracles | W 4–3 H | W 3–0 A |
| AZ Alkmaar | W 5–1 A | W 3–1 H |
| GO Ahead Eagles | W 2–1 H | W 3–1 AD 2–2 H |
| PEC Zwolle | W 4–0 A | W 4–2 HL 1–2 A |
| Ajax | D 2–2 H | D 1–1 A |
| NEC Nijmegen | W 5–3 A | W 3–2 H |
| Telstar | L 0–2 H | W 3–2 A |
| Twente | W 2–0 A | L 0–5 AL 1–2 H |
| Sparta Rotterdam | W 6–1 H | W 3–0 A |
| Points | 56 of 66 · 2.55 per game | 31 of 66 · 1.41 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
3 PSV Eindhoven wins0 draws1 Heerenveen wins
Goals per game1.50 – 0.50
Over 2.525%
Both scored25%
Clean sheets50% · 25%
- 6 Dec 2025Heerenveen0–2PSV Eindhoven
- 8 Mar 2025PSV Eindhoven2–1Heerenveen
- 14 Dec 2024Heerenveen1–0PSV Eindhoven
- 7 Dec 2023PSV Eindhoven2–0Heerenveen
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| PSV Eindhoven | Heerenveen | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.91 | 1.70 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.22 | 1.70 | |
| Match goals | 4.13 | 3.39 | 3.57 |
| Over 1.5 | 96% | 96% | |
| Over 2.5 | 83% | 70% | 69% |
| Over 3.5 | 48% | 43% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 70% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 26% | 9% | |
| Failed to score | 4% | 22% | |
| Games | 23 | 23 |
| PSV Eindhoven | Heerenveen | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.60 | 1.70 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.10 | 1.70 | |
| Match goals | 3.70 | 3.40 | 3.57 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 90% | 70% | 69% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 50% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| PSV Eindhoven | Heerenveen | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 7.17 | 5.64 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.22 | 4.64 | |
| Match total | 11.39 | 10.28 | 10.29 |
| Over 8.5 | 83% 19/23 | 77% 17/22 | |
| Over 9.5 | 83% 19/23 | 55% 12/22 | |
| Over 10.5 | 57% 13/23 | 45% 10/22 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.35 | 1.52 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.70 | 1.48 | |
| Match total | 3.05 | 3.00 | 3.52 |
| Over 3.5 | 35% 8/23 | 35% 8/23 | |
| Over 4.5 | 26% 6/23 | 17% 4/23 | |
| PSV Eindhoven | Heerenveen | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 8.30 | 5.33 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.00 | 4.56 | |
| Match total | 12.30 | 9.89 | 10.29 |
| Over 8.5 | 90% 9/10 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 90% 9/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 70% 7/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.30 | 1.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.20 | 1.10 | |
| Match total | 4.50 | 2.40 | 3.52 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Rob Dieperink Netherlands · 30 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.23league 3.31
Red cards0.17league 0.20
Cards 5+30%league 31%
Fouls21.9league 21.6
Penalties0.23league 0.25
Home wins30%league 43%
PSV Eindhoven4 with this referee
Record4-0-0
Cards · opp.0.0 · 1.5
Pens for · against2 · 1
- W3 May 25H · Fortuna Sittard4–10
- W26 Oct 24H · PEC Zwolle6–00
- W27 Jan 24H · Almere City FC2–00
- W21 Oct 23H · Fortuna Sittard3–10
Heerenveen2 with this referee
Record0-0-2
Cards · opp.1.0 · 2.5
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L18 Jan 26H · Groningen0–21
- L30 Sep 23A · Twente0–11
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
PSV Eindhoven23 games · scored 67 · conceded 28
11
2
0-15
15
2
16-30
10
9
31-45
10
3
46-60
9
8
61-75
12
4
76-90
Heerenveen23 games · scored 39 · conceded 39
2
4
0-15
5
9
16-30
8
5
31-45
7
7
46-60
7
5
61-75
10
9
76-90
PSV Eindhoven10 games · scored 22 · conceded 16
4
2
0-15
4
2
16-30
3
5
31-45
1
2
46-60
3
3
61-75
7
2
76-90
Heerenveen10 games · scored 17 · conceded 17
1
0-15
3
7
16-30
2
2
31-45
4
4
46-60
3
1
61-75
5
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
