PSV Eindhoven
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
PSV Eindhoven were clear favourites.
PSV Eindhoven were the stronger side on L90 Strength (77 vs 30). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for PSV Eindhoven. PSV Eindhoven had 19.2 days of rest, Heerenveen 20.1 and had to travel 171 km.
Away travel171 kmRest days19.2 · 20.1Matches / 14d0 · 0
PSV Eindhoven81%
Draw12%
Heerenveen8%
PSV Eindhoven74%
Draw16%
Heerenveen10%
PSV Eindhoven82%
Draw11%
Heerenveen7%
PSV Eindhoven74%
Draw15%
Heerenveen11%
PSV Eindhoven79%
Draw13%
Heerenveen8%
Over 2.5 76%
Both score 57%
Likeliest score 3–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Eindhoven)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsJoey Kooij
- Cards per match 3.4
- Penalties per match 0.34
- Matches 68
Team strength
PSV Eindhoven
Heerenveen
77
L90 StrengthIn forecast
30
71
Current StrengthIn forecast
31
60
AttackIn forecast
36
64
DefenceIn forecast
40
71
Form indexContext
16
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisHeerenveen
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
PSV EindhovenHeerenveen
3.43
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.57
1.43
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.29
3.00
xGVia Att/Def
0.95
0.73
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.75
+0.43
Goals minus xGContext
+0.62
100%
Scored inContext
71%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
43%
20.86
ShotsContext
15.71
8.43
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.00
40%
On target shareContext
38%
14.43
Shots in the boxContext
9.29
72%
Box shareContext
62%
16%
ConversionContext
10%
1.60
OffsidesContext
2.00
10.00
Shots allowedContext
15.86
4.29
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.83
3.60
BlocksContext
5.14
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.50
62%
Save rateContext
72%
64%
PossessionIn forecast
54%
604
PassesContext
500
539
Accurate passesContext
428
89%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
7.06
Team ratingContext
6.96
8.57
FoulsContext
8.43
8.43
Fouls sufferedContext
9.71
1.71
Yellow cardsContext
1.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
3.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.30
1.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
2.92
xGVia Att/Def
1.10
0.87
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.76
+0.48
Goals minus xGContext
+0.20
100%
Scored inContext
60%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
19.20
ShotsContext
14.60
7.70
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.40
40%
On target shareContext
37%
13.10
Shots in the boxContext
8.90
68%
Box shareContext
64%
18%
ConversionContext
9%
1.50
OffsidesContext
1.67
10.60
Shots allowedContext
17.20
4.20
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.89
3.75
BlocksContext
5.70
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.44
66%
Save rateContext
71%
61%
PossessionIn forecast
54%
550
PassesContext
491
487
Accurate passesContext
417
89%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
7.08
Team ratingContext
6.92
8.80
FoulsContext
8.30
8.80
Fouls sufferedContext
9.50
1.60
Yellow cardsContext
0.80
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
PSV Eindhoven
WWDWL
Rest19.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 71 · 10 pts vs 7.4 for an average club · -0.6 vs expected
Heerenveen
LDLDW
Rest20.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel171 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 16 · 5 pts vs 9.7 for an average club · -2.4 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| PSV Eindhoven |
Heerenveen |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 19.2Eredivisie 2026-2027, 20 Sep | 20.1Eredivisie 2026-2027, 19 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 171 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 2 | 0 / 0 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 4 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
PSV Eindhoven
Confirmed XI
32M. Kovář(G)
17Mauro Júnior
4A. Obispo
6R. Flamingo
8S. Dest
31N. Fernandez
24K. Sano
7R. van Bommel
20G. Til
19E. Bajraktarević
21S. Mijnans
Heerenveen
Confirmed XI
22B. Klaverboer(G)
19V. Zagaritis
3M. Willemsen
4S. Kersten
45O. Braude
36N. Courtens
16M. Linday
7M. Rivera
14L. Smans
20J. Trenskow
9D. Vente
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences PSV Eindhoven
Scores -0.07 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Heerenveen
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- PSV Eindhoven-0.9 pp
- Draw+0.4 pp
- Heerenveen+0.5 pp
Home / Away this season
PSV Eindhoven · Home
2.33points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-1-0
- Scored
- 3.67
- Conceded
- 1.33
Heerenveen · Away
1.67points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-2-0
- Scored
- 2.67
- Conceded
- 1.33
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 3 this season
| Opponent | PSV Eindhoven | Heerenveen |
|---|---|---|
| Twente | L 2–3 A | W 1–0 H |
| Sparta Rotterdam | W 4–1 H | W 4–0 A |
| Ajax | W 3–1 A | D 2–2 A |
| Points | 6 of 9 · 2.00 per game | 7 of 9 · 2.33 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings
4 PSV Eindhoven wins0 draws1 Heerenveen wins
Goals per game1.80 – 0.60
Over 2.540%
Both scored40%
Clean sheets40% · 20%
- 21 Feb 2026PSV Eindhoven3–1Heerenveen
- 6 Dec 2025Heerenveen0–2PSV Eindhoven
- 8 Mar 2025PSV Eindhoven2–1Heerenveen
- 14 Dec 2024Heerenveen1–0PSV Eindhoven
- 7 Dec 2023PSV Eindhoven2–0Heerenveen
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| PSV Eindhoven | Heerenveen | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 3.43 | 1.57 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.43 | 1.29 | |
| Match goals | 4.86 | 2.86 | 4.01 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 71% | |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 57% | 76% |
| Over 3.5 | 86% | 57% | |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 43% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 43% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 29% | |
| Games | 7 | 7 |
| PSV Eindhoven | Heerenveen | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 3.40 | 1.30 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.30 | 1.10 | |
| Match goals | 4.70 | 2.40 | 4.01 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 90% | 40% | 76% |
| Over 3.5 | 80% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 30% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| PSV Eindhoven | Heerenveen | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.20 | 5.14 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.60 | 5.57 | |
| Match total | 9.80 | 10.71 | 10.56 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 3/5 | 71% 5/7 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 3/5 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Over 10.5 | 60% 3/5 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.71 | 1.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.86 | 1.43 | |
| Match total | 3.57 | 2.43 | 2.61 |
| Over 3.5 | 29% 2/7 | 14% 1/7 | |
| Over 4.5 | 29% 2/7 | 0% 0/7 | |
| PSV Eindhoven | Heerenveen | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.13 | 5.30 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.63 | 5.90 | |
| Match total | 10.76 | 11.20 | 10.56 |
| Over 8.5 | 63% 5/8 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 63% 5/8 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 63% 5/8 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.60 | 0.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 1.40 | |
| Match total | 3.60 | 2.20 | 2.61 |
| Over 3.5 | 30% 3/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 0% 0/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Joey Kooij Netherlands · 68 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.29league 2.63
Red cards0.15league 0.05
Cards 5+28%league 11%
Fouls22.3league 20.8
Penalties0.34league 0.21
Home wins44%league 30%
PSV Eindhoven7 with this referee
Record5-1-1
Cards · opp.0.4 · 1.6
Pens for · against3 · 0
- L14 Mar 26H · NEC Nijmegen2–30
- W10 Jan 26H · Excelsior5–11
- W23 Nov 24H · Groningen5–00
- W10 Aug 24H · Waalwijk5–10
- D21 Jan 24A · Utrecht1–11
Heerenveen3 with this referee
Record0-2-1
Cards · opp.1.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D17 May 26H · Ajax0–00
- L19 Jan 25H · Ajax0–21
- D6 Oct 24H · PEC Zwolle1–12
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
PSV Eindhoven7 games · scored 24 · conceded 10
4
4
0-15
3
1
16-30
5
1
31-45
4
1
46-60
2
61-75
6
3
76-90
Heerenveen7 games · scored 11 · conceded 9
2
0-15
3
16-30
2
1
31-45
2
1
46-60
2
3
61-75
2
2
76-90
PSV Eindhoven10 games · scored 34 · conceded 13
5
4
0-15
4
3
16-30
7
2
31-45
7
1
46-60
3
61-75
8
3
76-90
Heerenveen10 games · scored 13 · conceded 14
2
0-15
3
16-30
2
2
31-45
3
4
46-60
2
4
61-75
3
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
