PSV Eindhoven
Attack—
Defense risk—
PSV Eindhoven
1st · 68 pts · 26 played
WLWWW
First leg5–3
2–3Full time
NEC Nijmegen
3rd · 46 pts · 26 played
LDDLW
Our take
PSV Eindhoven were clear favourites.
PSV Eindhoven were the stronger side on L90 Strength (78 vs 38). Absences weigh more on PSV Eindhoven. PSV Eindhoven had 6.9 days of rest, NEC Nijmegen 5.9 and had to travel 52 km.
Away travel52 kmRest days6.9 · 5.9Matches / 14d2 · 2
PSV Eindhoven72%
Draw16%
NEC Nijmegen12%
PSV Eindhoven70%
Draw19%
NEC Nijmegen11%
PSV Eindhoven73%
Draw16%
NEC Nijmegen11%
PSV Eindhoven64%
Draw19%
NEC Nijmegen17%
PSV Eindhoven70%
Draw17%
NEC Nijmegen12%
Over 2.5 74%
Both score 63%
Likeliest score 2–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Eindhoven)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsJoey Kooij
- Cards per match 3.4
- Penalties per match 0.25
- Matches 55
Team strength
PSV EindhovenNEC Nijmegen
78
L90 StrengthIn forecast
38
71
Current StrengthIn forecast
30
60
AttackIn forecast
37
64
DefenceIn forecast
33
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisNEC Nijmegen
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
PSV EindhovenNEC Nijmegen
2.88
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.46
1.19
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.65
2.05
xGVia Att/Def
1.72
1.08
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.44
+0.83
Goals minus xGContext
+0.74
96%
Scored inContext
96%
23%
Clean sheetsContext
15%
17.69
ShotsContext
16.12
7.15
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.73
40%
On target shareContext
42%
12.35
Shots in the boxContext
9.88
70%
Box shareContext
62%
16%
ConversionContext
15%
2.00
OffsidesContext
2.45
11.08
Shots allowedContext
11.35
3.76
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.92
3.59
BlocksContext
2.50
2.74
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.40
69%
Save rateContext
68%
61%
PossessionIn forecast
58%
554
PassesContext
431
482
Accurate passesContext
345
87%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
7.08
Team ratingContext
6.94
11.35
FoulsContext
11.27
8.42
Fouls sufferedContext
11.65
1.35
Yellow cardsContext
1.73
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.08
1.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.30
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.60
2.00
xGVia Att/Def
1.52
1.27
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.36
-0.10
Goals minus xGContext
+0.78
90%
Scored inContext
100%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
16.80
ShotsContext
16.40
6.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.40
38%
On target shareContext
39%
11.50
Shots in the boxContext
9.30
65%
Box shareContext
59%
11%
ConversionContext
14%
1.63
OffsidesContext
2.33
10.70
Shots allowedContext
11.70
3.60
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.80
3.56
BlocksContext
3.13
2.75
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.20
67%
Save rateContext
67%
61%
PossessionIn forecast
57%
551
PassesContext
437
476
Accurate passesContext
347
86%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.99
Team ratingContext
6.87
10.30
FoulsContext
10.20
8.50
Fouls sufferedContext
11.60
1.90
Yellow cardsContext
1.70
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
PSV Eindhoven
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km261 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
NEC Nijmegen
Rest5.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel52 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| PSV Eindhoven |
NEC Nijmegen |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.9Eredivisie 2025-2026, 7 Mar | 5.9Eredivisie 2025-2026, 8 Mar |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 52 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 261 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.9 | 7.7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
PSV Eindhoven
Confirmed XI
32M. Kovář(G)
2A. Salah-Eddine
3Yarek Gąsiorowski
6R. Flamingo
25K. Sildillia
34I. Saibari
22J. Schouten
5I. Perišić
10P. Wanner
27D. Man
9R. Pepi
NEC Nijmegen
Confirmed XI
22J. Cillessen(G)
24D. Fonville
4A. Kaplan
15J. Willems
11B. Önal
23K. Sano
6D. Nejašmić
25S. Ouaissa
20N. Lebreton
10T. Chery
30B. Linssen
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences PSV Eindhoven
Scores -0.09 · concedes +0.06 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
NEC Nijmegen
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.11 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- PSV Eindhoven-0.9 pp
- Draw+0.2 pp
- NEC Nijmegen+0.8 pp
Home / Away this season
PSV Eindhoven · Home
2.46points per game · 13 home games
- W-D-L
- 10-2-1
- Scored
- 3.15
- Conceded
- 1.38
NEC Nijmegen · Away
1.54points per game · 13 away games
- W-D-L
- 5-5-3
- Scored
- 2.23
- Conceded
- 1.77
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | PSV Eindhoven | NEC Nijmegen |
|---|---|---|
| AZ Alkmaar | W 2–1 HW 5–1 A | W 3–1 AW 2–1 H |
| Heracles | W 3–1 AW 4–3 H | W 4–1 HW 4–1 A |
| Heerenveen | W 3–1 HW 2–0 A | L 2–3 A |
| FC Volendam | L 1–2 AW 3–0 H | W 3–0 HW 3–2 A |
| Groningen | W 2–1 AW 4–2 H | W 2–0 H |
| Feyenoord | W 3–0 HW 3–2 A | W 4–2 A |
| NAC Breda | D 2–2 HW 1–0 A | W 4–3 AW 3–0 H |
| Fortuna Sittard | W 2–1 AW 5–2 H | L 2–3 HL 2–3 A |
| Excelsior | W 5–1 HW 2–1 A | W 5–0 H |
| Utrecht | W 2–1 A | L 1–3 HL 0–1 A |
| GO Ahead Eagles | W 2–1 H | D 1–1 A |
| PEC Zwolle | W 4–0 A | W 2–1 HD 2–2 A |
| Ajax | D 2–2 H | D 1–1 AD 2–2 H |
| Telstar | L 0–2 H | D 2–2 A |
| Twente | W 2–0 A | D 3–3 H |
| Sparta Rotterdam | W 6–1 H | D 1–1 AW 3–1 H |
| Points | 65 of 75 · 2.60 per game | 46 of 75 · 1.84 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
3 PSV Eindhoven wins1 draws0 NEC Nijmegen wins
Goals per game3.50 – 1.50
Over 2.575%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets50% · 0%
- 13 Sep 2025NEC Nijmegen3–5PSV Eindhoven
- 1 Feb 2025NEC Nijmegen3–3PSV Eindhoven
- 14 Sep 2024PSV Eindhoven2–0NEC Nijmegen
- 16 Sep 2023PSV Eindhoven4–0NEC Nijmegen
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| PSV Eindhoven | NEC Nijmegen | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.88 | 2.46 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.19 | 1.65 | |
| Match goals | 4.08 | 4.12 | 3.88 |
| Over 1.5 | 96% | 96% | |
| Over 2.5 | 85% | 81% | 74% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 65% | |
| Both teams scored | 73% | 81% | 63% |
| Clean sheets | 23% | 15% | |
| Failed to score | 4% | 4% | |
| Games | 26 | 26 |
| PSV Eindhoven | NEC Nijmegen | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.50 | 2.30 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.10 | 1.60 | |
| Match goals | 3.60 | 3.90 | 3.88 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 80% | 74% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 60% | |
| Both teams scored | 90% | 90% | 63% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| PSV Eindhoven | NEC Nijmegen | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 7.08 | 5.60 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.19 | 4.36 | |
| Match total | 11.27 | 9.96 | 10.32 |
| Over 8.5 | 81% 21/26 | 64% 16/25 | |
| Over 9.5 | 81% 21/26 | 56% 14/25 | |
| Over 10.5 | 58% 15/26 | 52% 13/25 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.38 | 1.85 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.65 | 2.04 | |
| Match total | 3.03 | 3.89 | 3.44 |
| Over 3.5 | 31% 8/26 | 46% 12/26 | |
| Over 4.5 | 23% 6/26 | 46% 12/26 | |
| PSV Eindhoven | NEC Nijmegen | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 7.40 | 5.56 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.20 | 4.67 | |
| Match total | 11.60 | 10.23 | 10.32 |
| Over 8.5 | 80% 8/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 80% 8/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 70% 7/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 1.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.90 | 1.60 | |
| Match total | 3.90 | 3.40 | 3.44 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Joey Kooij Netherlands · 55 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.22league 3.25
Red cards0.15league 0.18
Cards 5+27%league 29%
Fouls22.1league 21.4
Penalties0.25league 0.25
Home wins51%league 44%
PSV Eindhoven6 with this referee
Record5-1-0
Cards · opp.0.5 · 1.3
Pens for · against3 · 0
- W10 Jan 26H · Excelsior5–11
- W23 Nov 24H · Groningen5–00
- W10 Aug 24H · Waalwijk5–10
- D21 Jan 24A · Utrecht1–11
- W4 Nov 23A · Heracles6–00
NEC Nijmegen4 with this referee
Record1-1-2
Cards · opp.1.8 · 2.0
Pens for · against1 · 2
- W7 Feb 26H · Heracles4–10
- L1 Dec 24H · Ajax1–21
- D11 Nov 23A · Twente3–33
- L16 Sep 23A · PSV Eindhoven0–43
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
PSV Eindhoven26 games · scored 75 · conceded 31
13
3
0-15
15
3
16-30
13
9
31-45
11
3
46-60
9
8
61-75
14
5
76-90
NEC Nijmegen26 games · scored 64 · conceded 43
8
5
0-15
6
6
16-30
9
12
31-45
14
9
46-60
12
6
61-75
15
5
76-90
PSV Eindhoven10 games · scored 19 · conceded 14
5
3
0-15
2
3
16-30
3
2
31-45
1
1
46-60
1
2
61-75
7
3
76-90
NEC Nijmegen10 games · scored 23 · conceded 16
4
2
0-15
3
2
16-30
3
6
31-45
6
3
46-60
3
2
61-75
4
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
