PSV Eindhoven
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
PSV Eindhoven
1st · 68 pts · 26 played
WLWWW
First leg5–3
2–3Full time
NEC Nijmegen
3rd · 46 pts · 26 played
LDDLW
PSV Eindhoven72.2%fair odds 1.38
Draw15.8%fair odds 6.32
NEC Nijmegen11.9%fair odds 8.38
Expected goals2.78 – 1.09total 3.88
Likeliest score2–18.8%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
NEC Nijmegen
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| PSV Eindhoven ↓ · NEC Nijmegen → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.4 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 5.4 | 6.6 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 8.8 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 7.4 | 8.1 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 5.2 | 5.7 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 2.9 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 2.1 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are PSV Eindhoven goals, columns NEC Nijmegen goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 2–18.8%11.39
- 3–18.1%12.28
- 2–08.0%12.47
- 3–07.4%13.44
- 1–16.6%15.06
- 4–15.7%17.65
- 1–05.4%18.42
- 4–05.2%19.32
- 2–24.8%20.83
- 3–24.5%22.45
Winning margin
32.3%
PSV Eindhoven by 3+
fair 3.10
20.0%
PSV Eindhoven by 2
fair 5.01
20.0%
PSV Eindhoven by 1
fair 5.00
15.8%
Draw
fair 6.32
7.7%
NEC Nijmegen by 1
fair 13.07
3.1%
NEC Nijmegen by 2
fair 32.38
1.2%
NEC Nijmegen by 3+
fair 83.64
Goal distribution
Total goals
2%0
7%1
16%2
20%3
20%4
35%5+
PSV Eindhoven goals
6%0
17%1
24%2
22%3
30%4+
NEC Nijmegen goals
33%0
37%1
20%2
7%3
3%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| PSV Eindhoven win | 72.2% | 70.2% | +2.1 pp |
| Draw | 15.8% | 17.4% | -1.5 pp |
| NEC Nijmegen win | 11.9% | 12.5% | -0.5 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 74.3% | 68.4% | +5.9 pp |
| Both teams score | 62.7% | 58.5% | +4.2 pp |
| Expected goals PSV Eindhoven | 2.78 | 2.53 | +0.25 |
| Expected goals NEC Nijmegen | 1.09 | 1.00 | +0.10 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- PSV Eindhoven win72.2%1.38
- Draw15.8%6.32
- NEC Nijmegen win11.9%8.38
- Double chance PSV Eindhoven or draw88.1%1.14
- Double chance PSV Eindhoven or NEC Nijmegen84.2%1.19
- Double chance NEC Nijmegen or draw27.8%3.60
- Draw no bet PSV Eindhoven85.8%1.17
- Draw no bet NEC Nijmegen14.2%7.05
Goals
- Over 0.597.6%1.02
- Over 1.590.2%1.11
- Over 2.574.3%1.35
- Over 3.554.2%1.84
- Over 4.534.7%2.88
- Under 1.59.8%10.24
- Under 2.525.7%3.90
- Under 3.545.8%2.18
Both teams to score
- Yes62.7%1.59
- No37.3%2.68
- Yes and over 2.556.1%1.78
- PSV Eindhoven win and yes41.2%2.43
- Draw and yes13.4%7.45
- NEC Nijmegen win and yes8.2%12.26
Team goals
- PSV Eindhoven over 0.593.8%1.07
- PSV Eindhoven over 1.576.6%1.31
- PSV Eindhoven over 2.552.6%1.90
- NEC Nijmegen over 0.566.5%1.50
- NEC Nijmegen over 1.529.9%3.35
- NEC Nijmegen over 2.59.8%10.16
- PSV Eindhoven clean sheet33.5%2.99
- NEC Nijmegen clean sheet6.2%16.17
- PSV Eindhoven win to nil31.1%3.22
- NEC Nijmegen win to nil3.8%26.45
Handicap
- PSV Eindhoven −1.552.3%1.91
- PSV Eindhoven −2.532.3%3.10
- NEC Nijmegen +1.547.7%2.09
- NEC Nijmegen +2.567.7%1.48
- NEC Nijmegen −1.54.3%23.34
- PSV Eindhoven +1.595.7%1.04
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Eredivisie 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored236
Favourite won50.8%
Avg chance given to result40.8%
1X2 Brier0.592
Over 2.5 called right61.9%
BTTS called right64.0%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 40 | 38.0% | 35.0% |
| 40–50% | 89 | 44.9% | 47.2% |
| 50–60% | 51 | 54.9% | 43.1% |
| 60–70% | 31 | 64.3% | 64.5% |
| 70–80% | 18 | 74.3% | 88.9% |
| 80%+ | 7 | 84.7% | 85.7% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 194 of 236 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5925 | 0.5870 |
| Avg chance given to result | 40.8% | 42.1% |
| Favourite won | 50.5% | 52.6% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 194 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
Latest results
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- ✗Sparta Rotterdam 1–1 PEC Zwolle48·26·26
- ✗Excelsior 1–2 Heerenveen37·27·36
- ✓PSV Eindhoven 2–1 AZ Alkmaar66·20·14
- ✗Groningen 3–1 Ajax30·26·45
Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 236 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.