PSV Eindhoven vs Shakhtar Donetsk – 10 Sep 2026

UEFA Champions League Matchday 1 Thu, Sep 10 · 17:45 Philips Stadion, Eindhoven

PSV Eindhoven

1–1Full time

Shakhtar Donetsk

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

PSV Eindhoven were clear favourites.

PSV Eindhoven were the stronger side on L90 Strength (79 vs 55). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for PSV Eindhoven. PSV Eindhoven had 4.9 days of rest, Shakhtar Donetsk ? and had to travel 1,749 km.

Away travel1,749 kmRest days4.9 · ?Matches / 14d2 · 0

PSV Eindhoven70%

Draw17%

Shakhtar Donetsk13%

Expected goals 2.55 – 1.04

PSV Eindhoven61%

Draw22%

Shakhtar Donetsk17%

Expected goals 1.93 – 0.93

PSV Eindhoven70%

Draw17%

Shakhtar Donetsk13%

Expected goals 2.53 – 1.01

PSV Eindhoven62%

Draw19%

Shakhtar Donetsk18%

Expected goals 2.27 – 1.17

PSV Eindhoven69%

Draw17%

Shakhtar Donetsk14%

Expected goals 2.44 – 1.02

Over 2.5 70% Both score 60% Likeliest score 2–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Eindhoven)

No weather data yet

Referee · TürkiyeHalil Umut Meler

Cards per match 4.6
Penalties per match 0.33
Matches 40

Team strength

PSV Eindhoven

Shakhtar Donetsk

79 L90 StrengthIn forecast 55

71 Current StrengthIn forecast 57

60 AttackIn forecast 54

64 DefenceIn forecast 62

84 Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

PSV Eindhoven

Attack—

Defense risk—

Shakhtar Donetsk

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

PSV Eindhoven

Shakhtar Donetsk

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

3.70 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.70

1.10 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.00

2.53 xGVia Att/Def 0.98

0.91 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.29

+1.17 Goals minus xGContext +0.72

100% Scored inContext 100%

10% Clean sheetsContext 50%

18.50 ShotsContext 13.83

7.90 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.33

43% On target shareContext 31%

12.60 Shots in the boxContext 8.67

69% Box shareContext 62%

20% ConversionContext 13%

1.33 OffsidesContext 2.50

9.60 Shots allowedContext 10.00

4.10 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.50

3.13 BlocksContext 2.00

3.22 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.67

73% Save rateContext 59%

60% PossessionIn forecast 57%

553 PassesContext 468

488 Accurate passesContext 414

88% Pass accuracyContext 89%

7.18 Team ratingContext 6.83

9.30 FoulsContext 10.17

7.70 Fouls sufferedContext 10.50

1.90 Yellow cardsContext 2.20

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

PSV Eindhoven DWWWW

Rest4.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km375 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 84 · 13 pts vs 8.4 for an average club · +2.4 vs expected

W5 SepA · Ajax3–11.8 xPts
W30 AugA · Utrecht6–12.1 xPts
W23 AugH · Groningen5–12.3 xPts
W15 AugA · Excelsior2–11.8 xPts
D8 AugH · Fortuna Sittard2–22.6 xPts

Shakhtar Donetsk

Rest—since last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel1,749 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load20%Moderate

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	PSV Eindhoven	Shakhtar Donetsk
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Moderate · 20
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	4.9Eredivisie 2026-2027, 5 Sep	—
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	1,749 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	375 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 4	0 / 0 / 0
Next matchdays after this one	3.1	34.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

PSV Eindhoven Confirmed XI

4-3-3

32M. Kovář(G)

18F. Kostić 4A. Obispo 2L. Geertruida 8S. Dest

10P. Wanner 24K. Sano 20G. Til

7R. van Bommel 9R. Pepi 5I. Perišić

+9 more reported missing outside this XI

Shakhtar Donetsk Confirmed XI

4-4-2

31D. Riznyk(G)

13Pedro Henrique 22M. Matviienko 5V. Bondar 17Vinícius Tobias

77Gleiker Mendoza 27O. Ocheretko 6Marlon Gomes 30Alisson Santana

9Kauã Elias

+9 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

PSV Eindhoven Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Shakhtar Donetsk Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.06 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

PSV Eindhoven-0.3 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Shakhtar Donetsk+0.3 pp

Home / Away this season

PSV Eindhoven · Home No home games yet this season.

Shakhtar Donetsk · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings

1 PSV Eindhoven wins0 draws0 Shakhtar Donetsk wins

Goals per game3.00 – 2.00 Over 2.5100% Both scored100% Clean sheets0% · 0%

27 Nov 2024PSV Eindhoven3–2Shakhtar Donetsk

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	PSV Eindhoven	Shakhtar Donetsk	Forecast
Scored per game	—	—
Conceded per game	—	—
Match goals	—	—	3.59
Over 1.5	—	—
Over 2.5	—	—	70%
Over 3.5	—	—
Both teams scored	—	—	60%
Clean sheets	—	—
Failed to score	—	—
Games	0	0

	PSV Eindhoven	Shakhtar Donetsk	Forecast
Scored per game	3.70	—
Conceded per game	1.10	—
Match goals	4.80	—	3.59
Over 1.5	100%	—
Over 2.5	90%	—	70%
Over 3.5	80%	—
Both teams scored	90%	—	60%
Clean sheets	10%	—
Failed to score	0%	—
Games	10	0

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	PSV Eindhoven	Shakhtar Donetsk	League
Corners
Corners won	—	—
Corners conceded	—	—
Match total	—	—	9.50
Over 8.5	—	—
Over 9.5	—	—
Over 10.5	—	—
Cards
Cards	—	—
Opponent cards	—	—
Match total	—	—	3.50
Over 3.5	—	—
Over 4.5	—	—

	PSV Eindhoven	Shakhtar Donetsk	League
Corners
Corners won	5.63	5.80
Corners conceded	4.25	3.20
Match total	9.88	9.00	9.50
Over 8.5	50% 4/8	40% 2/5
Over 9.5	50% 4/8	40% 2/5
Over 10.5	38% 3/8	40% 2/5
Cards
Cards	1.90	2.20
Opponent cards	1.50	1.80
Match total	3.40	4.00	3.50
Over 3.5	30% 3/10	50% 5/10
Over 4.5	30% 3/10	40% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Halil Umut Meler Türkiye · 40 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.40league 3.42

Red cards0.23league 0.08

Cards 5+45%league 25%

Fouls23.9league 23.4

Penalties0.33league 0.25

Home wins35%league 67%

PSV Eindhoven

No previous matches with this referee.

Shakhtar Donetsk1 with this referee

Record0-0-1 Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.0 Pens for · against0 · 1

L10 Dec 24H · Bayern München1–52

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.