PSV Eindhoven
Attack—
Defense risk—
PSV Eindhoven
3rd · 13 pts · 5 played
DWWWW
4–1Full time
Sparta Rotterdam
12th · 5 pts · 5 played
LWDLD
Our take
PSV Eindhoven were clear favourites.
PSV Eindhoven were the stronger side on L90 Strength (78 vs 20). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for PSV Eindhoven. PSV Eindhoven had 3.1 days of rest, Sparta Rotterdam 9 and had to travel 87 km.
Away travel87 kmRest days3.1 · 9Matches / 14d2 · 1
PSV Eindhoven87%
Draw8%
Sparta Rotterdam4%
PSV Eindhoven81%
Draw13%
Sparta Rotterdam6%
PSV Eindhoven88%
Draw8%
Sparta Rotterdam4%
PSV Eindhoven82%
Draw11%
Sparta Rotterdam7%
PSV Eindhoven86%
Draw9%
Sparta Rotterdam5%
Over 2.5 81%
Both score 53%
Likeliest score 3–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Eindhoven)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsDanny Makkelie
- Cards per match 3.4
- Penalties per match 0.33
- Matches 125
Team strength
PSV EindhovenSparta Rotterdam
78
L90 StrengthIn forecast
20
71
Current StrengthIn forecast
18
60
AttackIn forecast
32
64
DefenceIn forecast
17
87
Form indexContext
20
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisSparta Rotterdam
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
PSV EindhovenSparta Rotterdam
3.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.80
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.80
3.00
xGVia Att/Def
1.76
0.73
xG allowedVia Att/Def
2.28
+0.60
Goals minus xGContext
+0.04
100%
Scored inContext
80%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
21.60
ShotsContext
14.20
9.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.00
42%
On target shareContext
34%
15.40
Shots in the boxContext
10.00
74%
Box shareContext
69%
17%
ConversionContext
13%
1.00
OffsidesContext
3.00
8.00
Shots allowedContext
14.60
3.80
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.00
3.00
BlocksContext
4.40
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.25
67%
Save rateContext
68%
62%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
587
PassesContext
417
521
Accurate passesContext
344
89%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
7.11
Team ratingContext
6.88
8.60
FoulsContext
11.40
9.20
Fouls sufferedContext
11.60
1.80
Yellow cardsContext
1.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
3.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.40
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.40
2.61
xGVia Att/Def
1.58
0.87
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.93
+0.99
Goals minus xGContext
-0.18
100%
Scored inContext
70%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
17.80
ShotsContext
14.00
7.60
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.22
43%
On target shareContext
27%
12.00
Shots in the boxContext
9.80
67%
Box shareContext
69%
20%
ConversionContext
10%
1.29
OffsidesContext
2.50
9.50
Shots allowedContext
15.90
3.90
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.10
3.38
BlocksContext
4.20
2.89
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.63
68%
Save rateContext
63%
60%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
540
PassesContext
401
475
Accurate passesContext
330
88%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
7.13
Team ratingContext
6.82
9.50
FoulsContext
9.80
8.60
Fouls sufferedContext
11.10
1.60
Yellow cardsContext
1.30
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
PSV Eindhoven
WWWWD
Rest3.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km223 km in 14d
Schedule load8%Low
Form 87 · 13 pts vs 7.7 for an average club · +2.7 vs expected
Sparta Rotterdam
LWDLD
Rest9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel87 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 20 · 5 pts vs 8.9 for an average club · -0.8 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| PSV Eindhoven |
Sparta Rotterdam |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 8 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 3.1UEFA Champions League 2026-2027 - League phase, 10 Sep | 9Eredivisie 2026-2027, 4 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 87 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 223 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.8 | 5.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
PSV Eindhoven
Confirmed XI
32M. Kovář(G)
17Mauro Júnior
4A. Obispo
2L. Geertruida
8S. Dest
24K. Sano
10P. Wanner
20G. Til
37A. Bouhamdi
21S. Mijnans
19E. Bajraktarević
Sparta Rotterdam
Confirmed XI
1M. Brouwer(G)
4R. Martins Indi
6N. Verschuren
3M. Young
5B. Kuipers
10C. Hatenboer
8J. Baas
2Lushendry Edward Martes
11M. van Bergen
7C. Terho
9Milan Zonneveld
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences PSV Eindhoven
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Sparta Rotterdam
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- PSV Eindhoven-0.3 pp
- Draw+0.1 pp
- Sparta Rotterdam+0.1 pp
Home / Away this season
PSV Eindhoven · Home
2.00points per game · 2 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-0
- Scored
- 3.50
- Conceded
- 1.50
Sparta Rotterdam · Away
1.50points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-1
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 1.50
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 2 this season
| Opponent | PSV Eindhoven | Sparta Rotterdam |
|---|---|---|
| Utrecht | W 6–1 A | D 3–3 H |
| Excelsior | W 2–1 A | L 1–2 A |
| Points | 6 of 6 · 3.00 per game | 1 of 6 · 0.50 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings
5 PSV Eindhoven wins0 draws0 Sparta Rotterdam wins
Goals per game3.40 – 0.60
Over 2.580%
Both scored60%
Clean sheets40% · 0%
- 11 Apr 2026Sparta Rotterdam0–2PSV Eindhoven
- 9 Aug 2025PSV Eindhoven6–1Sparta Rotterdam
- 18 May 2025Sparta Rotterdam1–3PSV Eindhoven
- 5 Oct 2024PSV Eindhoven2–1Sparta Rotterdam
- 8 Oct 2023Sparta Rotterdam0–4PSV Eindhoven
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| PSV Eindhoven | Sparta Rotterdam | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 3.60 | 1.80 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.20 | 1.80 | |
| Match goals | 4.80 | 3.60 | 4.36 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 80% | 81% |
| Over 3.5 | 80% | 60% | |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 80% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 20% | |
| Games | 5 | 5 |
| PSV Eindhoven | Sparta Rotterdam | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 3.60 | 1.40 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.20 | 2.40 | |
| Match goals | 4.80 | 3.80 | 4.36 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 90% | 80% | 81% |
| Over 3.5 | 80% | 70% | |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 70% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| PSV Eindhoven | Sparta Rotterdam | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.67 | 6.80 | |
| Corners conceded | 2.00 | 6.80 | |
| Match total | 7.67 | 13.60 | 10.55 |
| Over 8.5 | 33% 1/3 | 100% 5/5 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 1/3 | 100% 5/5 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 1/3 | 80% 4/5 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.80 | 1.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.20 | 1.00 | |
| Match total | 4.00 | 2.00 | 2.63 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 2/5 | 20% 1/5 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 2/5 | 0% 0/5 | |
| PSV Eindhoven | Sparta Rotterdam | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.38 | 5.40 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.38 | 6.30 | |
| Match total | 9.76 | 11.70 | 10.55 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 4/8 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 4/8 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 38% 3/8 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.60 | 1.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 1.80 | |
| Match total | 3.60 | 3.10 | 2.63 |
| Over 3.5 | 30% 3/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Danny Makkelie Netherlands · 125 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.26league 2.65
Red cards0.13league 0.06
Cards 5+26%league 13%
Fouls21.8league 20.8
Penalties0.33league 0.23
Home wins44%league 25%
PSV Eindhoven11 with this referee
Record10-1-0
Cards · opp.2.1 · 1.8
Pens for · against1 · 1
Reds1
- W13 Sep 25A · NEC Nijmegen5–35
- W23 Aug 25H · Groningen4–20
- W11 May 25A · Feyenoord3–23
- W24 Apr 25A · Twente3–13
- W8 Mar 25H · Heerenveen2–12
Sparta Rotterdam8 with this referee
Record2-1-5
Cards · opp.1.5 · 1.1
Pens for · against0 · 3
- W18 Jan 26A · Feyenoord4–33
- L2 Nov 25H · AZ Alkmaar0–11
- W2 Mar 25H · Willem II4–01
- L9 Nov 24A · Groningen0–12
- L5 Oct 24A · PSV Eindhoven1–22
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
PSV Eindhoven5 games · scored 18 · conceded 6
4
2
0-15
1
16-30
4
1
31-45
4
1
46-60
1
61-75
5
1
76-90
Sparta Rotterdam5 games · scored 9 · conceded 9
1
0-15
1
3
16-30
1
1
31-45
2
1
46-60
2
61-75
2
4
76-90
PSV Eindhoven10 games · scored 36 · conceded 12
7
3
0-15
1
3
16-30
6
2
31-45
8
2
46-60
4
61-75
10
2
76-90
Sparta Rotterdam10 games · scored 14 · conceded 24
1
1
0-15
1
3
16-30
3
3
31-45
4
5
46-60
2
3
61-75
3
9
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
