Belgian Pro League Knockout phase Sun, Nov 2 · 18:15 Stade Communal du Tivoli, La Louvière
RAAL La Louvière 12th · 14 pts · 12 played
2–1Full time
Cercle Brugge 13th · 12 pts · 12 played
Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

RAAL La Louvière were slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Cercle Brugge usually keep the ball (49% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. RAAL La Louvière had 7 days of rest, Cercle Brugge 7.1 and had to travel 105 km.

Away travel105 kmRest days7 · 7.1Matches / 14d1 · 1
RAAL La Louvière43%
Draw28%
Cercle Brugge30%
Expected goals 1.40 – 1.13
RAAL La Louvière44%
Draw27%
Cercle Brugge29%
Expected goals 1.52 – 1.18
RAAL La Louvière43%
Draw28%
Cercle Brugge30%
Expected goals 1.40 – 1.13
RAAL La Louvière36%
Draw28%
Cercle Brugge36%
Expected goals 1.25 – 1.26
RAAL La Louvière44%
Draw27%
Cercle Brugge29%
Expected goals 1.52 – 1.18
Over 2.5 46% Both score 52% Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (La Louvière)

No weather data yet

RefereeBert Put
  • Cards per match 3.5
  • Penalties per match 0.24
  • Matches 21

Team strength

RAAL La LouvièreCercle Brugge
27 L90 StrengthIn forecast 26
17 Current StrengthIn forecast 21
15 AttackIn forecast 24
15 DefenceIn forecast 28
— Form indexContext —
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

RAAL La Louvière

Attack—
Defense risk—

Cercle Brugge

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

RAAL La LouvièreCercle Brugge
0.67 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.33
0.83 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.42
0.81 xGVia Att/Def 1.48
1.06 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.49
-0.14 Goals minus xGContext -0.15
50% Scored inContext 67%
50% Clean sheetsContext 25%
8.92 ShotsContext 13.17
2.42 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.08
27% On target shareContext 31%
6.08 Shots in the boxContext 9.75
68% Box shareContext 73%
8% ConversionContext 10%
2.30 OffsidesContext 2.36
10.83 Shots allowedContext 14.25
4.64 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.08
2.91 BlocksContext 3.27
3.82 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.58
82% Save rateContext 71%
33% PossessionIn forecast 48%
245 PassesContext 365
169 Accurate passesContext 281
69% Pass accuracyContext 77%
6.77 Team ratingContext 6.90
11.67 FoulsContext 10.67
11.67 Fouls sufferedContext 12.25
1.75 Yellow cardsContext 1.83
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.08
This league season, per match · 12 and 12 games
0.80 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.60
0.70 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.50
0.86 xGVia Att/Def 1.58
0.95 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.51
-0.06 Goals minus xGContext +0.02
60% Scored inContext 80%
60% Clean sheetsContext 20%
8.80 ShotsContext 13.60
2.60 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.50
30% On target shareContext 33%
6.30 Shots in the boxContext 10.20
72% Box shareContext 74%
9% ConversionContext 12%
2.44 OffsidesContext 2.22
11.00 Shots allowedContext 15.10
4.56 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.30
3.11 BlocksContext 3.67
3.89 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.80
85% Save rateContext 72%
33% PossessionIn forecast 48%
241 PassesContext 361
167 Accurate passesContext 280
69% Pass accuracyContext 78%
6.80 Team ratingContext 6.89
10.60 FoulsContext 10.80
11.60 Fouls sufferedContext 11.30
1.80 Yellow cardsContext 1.80
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

RAAL La Louvière
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km213 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
No finished matches with a forecast yet.
Cercle Brugge
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel105 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
RAAL La Louvière Cercle Brugge
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match7Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 26 Oct7.1Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 26 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km105 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways213 km0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days0 / 1 / 20 / 1 / 2
Next matchdays after this one6.15.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

RAAL La Louvière Confirmed XI
5-3-2
21M. Peano(G)
5T. Lutonda 25D. Lamego 99Y. Okou 4Wagane Faye 11J. Liongola
23J. Ito 8S. Gueulette 98Owen Maes
22J. Afriyie 29O. Mendy
Cercle Brugge Confirmed XI
4-4-2
21M. Delanghe(G)
20Flávio Nazinho 3E. Utkus 5Emmanuel Kakou 15G. Magnée
11A. Minda 28H. Van der Bruggen 18P. Gerkens 37E. Diop
9S. Ngoura 10O. Diakité

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
RAAL La Louvière Absences are shown before kick-off
Cercle Brugge Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
  • RAAL La Louvière+0.0 pp
  • Draw+0.0 pp
  • Cercle Brugge+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

RAAL La Louvière · Home 1.50points per game · 6 home games
W-D-L
2-3-1
Scored
0.33
Conceded
0.33
Cercle Brugge · Away 1.20points per game · 5 away games
W-D-L
1-3-1
Scored
0.80
Conceded
0.60

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 10 this season

OpponentRAAL La LouvièreCercle Brugge
Genk D 1–1 A D 2–2 H
KVC Westerlo D 0–0 H W 4–1 H
Zulte Waregem D 0–0 H D 1–1 H
Dender D 0–0 A D 0–0 A
Club Brugge KV W 1–0 H L 0–2 A
KV Mechelen L 2–3 A D 0–0 A
St. Truiden L 1–2 A D 1–1 H
Charleroi W 1–0 H L 2–3 H
Gent L 0–1 A L 2–4 H
Standard Liege L 0–2 H W 3–0 A
Points10 of 30 · 1.00 per game11 of 30 · 1.10 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

RAAL La LouvièreCercle BruggeForecast
Scored per game 0.671.33
Conceded per game 0.831.42
Match goals 1.502.75 2.53
Over 1.5 42%83%
Over 2.5 25%42% 46%
Over 3.5 8%33%
Both teams scored 33%58% 52%
Clean sheets 50%25%
Failed to score 50%33%
Games1212
RAAL La LouvièreCercle BruggeForecast
Scored per game 0.801.60
Conceded per game 0.701.50
Match goals 1.503.10 2.53
Over 1.5 40%90%
Over 2.5 30%50% 46%
Over 3.5 10%40%
Both teams scored 40%70% 52%
Clean sheets 60%20%
Failed to score 40%20%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

RAAL La LouvièreCercle BruggeLeague
Corners
Corners won4.004.27
Corners conceded3.175.36
Match total7.179.639.51
Over 8.525% 3/1255% 6/11
Over 9.525% 3/1255% 6/11
Over 10.517% 2/1255% 6/11
Cards
Cards1.751.92
Opponent cards1.421.42
Match total3.173.344.05
Over 3.542% 5/1250% 6/12
Over 4.525% 3/1225% 3/12
RAAL La LouvièreCercle BruggeLeague
Corners
Corners won4.004.33
Corners conceded3.205.89
Match total7.2010.229.51
Over 8.530% 3/1067% 6/9
Over 9.530% 3/1067% 6/9
Over 10.520% 2/1067% 6/9
Cards
Cards1.801.90
Opponent cards1.601.50
Match total3.403.404.05
Over 3.550% 5/1050% 5/10
Over 4.530% 3/1030% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Bert Put 21 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.33league 3.83
Red cards0.14league 0.21
Cards 5+38%league 42%
Fouls24.2league 23.1
Penalties0.24league 0.28
Home wins33%league 44%
RAAL La Louvière1 with this referee
Record1-0-0 Cards · opp.0.0 · 1.0 Pens for · against0 · 1
  • W13 Sep 25H · Club Brugge KV1–00
Cercle Brugge4 with this referee
Record1-0-3 Cards · opp.3.0 · 3.0 Pens for · against1 · 0
  • L28 Sep 25H · Gent2–42
  • L30 Jan 24A · KVC Westerlo2–45
  • W22 Oct 23H · Gent2–03
  • L13 Aug 23H · Genk0–12

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.

Goal timing

RAAL La Louvière12 games · scored 8 · conceded 10
1 2 0-15
4 2 16-30
2 31-45
46-60
2 61-75
1 4 76-90
Cercle Brugge12 games · scored 16 · conceded 17
1 3 0-15
2 3 16-30
8 3 31-45
1 3 46-60
2 3 61-75
2 2 76-90
RAAL La Louvière10 games · scored 8 · conceded 7
1 1 0-15
4 2 16-30
1 31-45
46-60
2 61-75
1 3 76-90
Cercle Brugge10 games · scored 16 · conceded 15
1 2 0-15
2 3 16-30
8 3 31-45
1 3 46-60
2 3 61-75
2 1 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Beta

Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.

Next fixtures Belgian Pro League

View all fixtures →
Standard Liege Charleroi 31 Zulte Waregem Union St. Gilloise 14 Club Brugge KV Dender 21 Anderlecht KV Mechelen 31 KVC Westerlo Genk 01 OH Leuven Gent 40 St. Truiden Antwerp 10 RAAL La Louvière Cercle Brugge 21