Belgian Pro League Knockout phase Sun, Feb 22 · 15:00 Stade Communal du Tivoli, La Louvière
RAAL La Louvière 15th · 25 pts · 25 played
First leg2–3 0–2Full time
KV Mechelen 6th · 36 pts · 25 played
Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

It was too close to call.

KV Mechelen were the stronger side on L90 Strength (32 vs 25). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for RAAL La Louvière. RAAL La Louvière had 6.9 days of rest, KV Mechelen 8.8 and had to travel 63 km.

Away travel63 kmRest days6.9 · 8.8Matches / 14d2 · 2
RAAL La Louvière39%
Draw28%
KV Mechelen33%
Expected goals 1.37 – 1.24
RAAL La Louvière39%
Draw27%
KV Mechelen34%
Expected goals 1.39 – 1.29
RAAL La Louvière39%
Draw28%
KV Mechelen33%
Expected goals 1.37 – 1.24
RAAL La Louvière32%
Draw28%
KV Mechelen40%
Expected goals 1.23 – 1.39
RAAL La Louvière41%
Draw27%
KV Mechelen33%
Expected goals 1.45 – 1.28
Over 2.5 48% Both score 54% Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (La Louvière)

No weather data yet

RefereeMichiel Allaerts
  • Cards per match 3.6
  • Penalties per match 0.07
  • Matches 14

Team strength

RAAL La LouvièreKV Mechelen
25 L90 StrengthIn forecast 32
17 Current StrengthIn forecast 23
15 AttackIn forecast 18
15 DefenceIn forecast 23
— Form indexContext —
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

RAAL La Louvière

Attack—
Defense risk—

KV Mechelen

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

RAAL La LouvièreKV Mechelen
0.84 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.28
1.12 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.16
0.86 xGVia Att/Def 1.22
1.15 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.49
-0.02 Goals minus xGContext +0.06
60% Scored inContext 84%
36% Clean sheetsContext 24%
9.08 ShotsContext 10.24
2.78 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.92
28% On target shareContext 37%
6.25 Shots in the boxContext 7.35
67% Box shareContext 69%
9% ConversionContext 13%
2.16 OffsidesContext 2.31
12.16 Shots allowedContext 14.36
4.75 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.00
3.17 BlocksContext 4.22
3.67 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.17
77% Save rateContext 85%
36% PossessionIn forecast 49%
268 PassesContext 393
192 Accurate passesContext 318
72% Pass accuracyContext 81%
6.79 Team ratingContext 6.91
11.08 FoulsContext 10.04
11.56 Fouls sufferedContext 11.28
1.92 Yellow cardsContext 2.40
0.04 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 25 and 25 games
1.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.20
1.30 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.20
1.03 xGVia Att/Def 1.20
1.13 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.39
-0.03 Goals minus xGContext +0.00
70% Scored inContext 70%
30% Clean sheetsContext 20%
9.70 ShotsContext 10.10
3.38 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.67
28% On target shareContext 33%
6.30 Shots in the boxContext 7.11
65% Box shareContext 67%
10% ConversionContext 12%
2.13 OffsidesContext 3.17
13.10 Shots allowedContext 12.00
4.80 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.33
3.33 BlocksContext 3.13
3.70 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.80
77% Save rateContext 79%
41% PossessionIn forecast 52%
304 PassesContext 411
227 Accurate passesContext 331
75% Pass accuracyContext 80%
6.86 Team ratingContext 6.89
9.90 FoulsContext 11.10
11.30 Fouls sufferedContext 12.20
1.90 Yellow cardsContext 2.40
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

RAAL La Louvière
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km168 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
No finished matches with a forecast yet.
KV Mechelen
Rest8.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel63 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
RAAL La Louvière KV Mechelen
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match6.9Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 15 Feb8.8Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 13 Feb
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km63 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways168 km0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 2 / 30 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one5.26

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

RAAL La Louvière Confirmed XI
3-4-1-2
21M. Peano(G)
13M. Maisonneuve 99Y. Okou 4Wagane Faye
3N. Gillot 18M. Ashimeru 15S. Lahssaini 11J. Liongola
23J. Ito
7P. Fall 22J. Afriyie
KV Mechelen Confirmed XI
3-4-2-1
13Nacho Mirás(G)
33T. St. Jago 8M. Konaté 2R. Halhal
17Mathis Servais 6F. Hammar 19A. Mrabti 7T. Koudou
9M. van Brederode 27K. Van Rafelghem
28B. Boersma

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
RAAL La Louvière Absences are shown before kick-off
KV Mechelen Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
  • RAAL La Louvière+0.0 pp
  • Draw+0.0 pp
  • KV Mechelen+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

RAAL La Louvière · Home 1.17points per game · 12 home games
W-D-L
3-5-4
Scored
0.58
Conceded
0.75
KV Mechelen · Away 1.50points per game · 12 away games
W-D-L
5-3-4
Scored
1.33
Conceded
1.17

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 14 this season

OpponentRAAL La LouvièreKV Mechelen
Anderlecht D 0–0 AL 0–1 H L 1–3 A
Union St. Gilloise L 1–2 AD 0–0 H L 0–1 AD 1–1 H
Gent D 1–1 HL 0–1 A D 1–1 H
St. Truiden L 1–2 HL 1–2 A L 0–1 AL 1–3 H
Club Brugge KV W 3–2 AW 1–0 H W 2–1 H
OH Leuven D 0–0 HW 2–1 A D 2–2 AD 1–1 H
KVC Westerlo L 1–2 AD 0–0 H D 1–1 HW 1–0 A
Zulte Waregem D 2–2 AD 0–0 H D 1–1 A
Dender L 1–2 HD 0–0 A D 1–1 HW 3–1 A
Charleroi D 0–0 AW 1–0 H W 1–0 HW 2–0 A
Antwerp L 1–3 A W 2–0 HL 1–2 A
Cercle Brugge W 2–1 H W 3–2 AD 0–0 H
Genk D 1–1 A L 2–3 HW 1–0 A
Standard Liege L 0–2 H L 0–1 HD 1–1 A
Points25 of 72 · 1.04 per game33 of 72 · 1.38 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings

0 RAAL La Louvière wins0 draws1 KV Mechelen wins
Goals per game2.00 – 3.00 Over 2.5100% Both scored100% Clean sheets0% · 0%
  • 30 Aug 2025KV Mechelen3–2RAAL La Louvière

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

RAAL La LouvièreKV MechelenForecast
Scored per game 0.841.28
Conceded per game 1.121.16
Match goals 1.962.44 2.61
Over 1.5 56%72%
Over 2.5 44%36% 48%
Over 3.5 16%28%
Both teams scored 52%64% 54%
Clean sheets 36%24%
Failed to score 40%16%
Games2525
RAAL La LouvièreKV MechelenForecast
Scored per game 1.001.20
Conceded per game 1.301.20
Match goals 2.302.40 2.61
Over 1.5 70%60%
Over 2.5 60%30% 48%
Over 3.5 20%30%
Both teams scored 70%50% 54%
Clean sheets 30%20%
Failed to score 30%30%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

RAAL La LouvièreKV MechelenLeague
Corners
Corners won4.284.88
Corners conceded4.245.92
Match total8.5210.809.88
Over 8.552% 13/2567% 16/24
Over 9.540% 10/2563% 15/24
Over 10.532% 8/2550% 12/24
Cards
Cards1.962.40
Opponent cards1.601.76
Match total3.564.164.11
Over 3.552% 13/2564% 16/25
Over 4.528% 7/2540% 10/25
RAAL La LouvièreKV MechelenLeague
Corners
Corners won5.105.44
Corners conceded4.904.33
Match total10.009.779.88
Over 8.580% 8/1067% 6/9
Over 9.560% 6/1056% 5/9
Over 10.550% 5/1033% 3/9
Cards
Cards1.902.40
Opponent cards1.502.30
Match total3.404.704.11
Over 3.550% 5/1060% 6/10
Over 4.520% 2/1050% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Michiel Allaerts 14 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.43league 3.89
Red cards0.14league 0.19
Cards 5+29%league 41%
Fouls23.4league 22.8
Penalties0.07league 0.30
Home wins29%league 40%
RAAL La Louvière

No previous matches with this referee.

KV Mechelen2 with this referee
Record2-0-0 Cards · opp.0.5 · 1.0 Pens for · against0 · 1
  • W19 Oct 25A · Dender3–10
  • W9 Aug 25A · KVC Westerlo1–01

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.

Goal timing

RAAL La Louvière25 games · scored 21 · conceded 28
2 4 0-15
5 4 16-30
2 4 31-45
1 3 46-60
3 3 61-75
8 10 76-90
KV Mechelen25 games · scored 32 · conceded 29
6 2 0-15
5 4 16-30
6 2 31-45
4 5 46-60
4 6 61-75
7 10 76-90
RAAL La Louvière10 games · scored 10 · conceded 13
1 2 0-15
2 16-30
2 2 31-45
1 2 46-60
1 1 61-75
5 4 76-90
KV Mechelen10 games · scored 12 · conceded 12
3 1 0-15
1 2 16-30
2 2 31-45
3 3 46-60
1 2 61-75
2 2 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Beta

Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.

Next fixtures Belgian Pro League

View all fixtures →
Gent Cercle Brugge 01 Dender St. Truiden 14 Club Brugge KV OH Leuven 21 Union St. Gilloise Antwerp 21 Genk Standard Liege 03 RAAL La Louvière KV Mechelen 02 Zulte Waregem Anderlecht 24 KVC Westerlo Charleroi 21