Rayo Vallecano vs Alaves – 26 Oct 2025

La Liga Gameweek 10 Sun, Oct 26 · 20:00 Estadio de Vallecas, Madrid

Rayo Vallecano 12th · 11 pts · 9 played DLLWW

1–0Full time

Alaves 11th · 12 pts · 9 played LDLWD

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Rayo Vallecano were slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Rayo Vallecano had 7.1 days of rest, Alaves 6 and had to travel 284 km.

Away travel284 kmRest days7.1 · 6Matches / 14d1 · 1

Rayo Vallecano47%

Draw27%

Alaves26%

Expected goals 1.53 – 1.08

Rayo Vallecano47%

Draw26%

Alaves27%

Expected goals 1.58 – 1.13

Rayo Vallecano47%

Draw27%

Alaves26%

Expected goals 1.52 – 1.08

Rayo Vallecano40%

Draw28%

Alaves33%

Expected goals 1.37 – 1.22

Rayo Vallecano47%

Draw26%

Alaves27%

Expected goals 1.59 – 1.14

Over 2.5 49% Both score 53% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Madrid)

No weather data yet

Referee · SpainVictor Garcia Verdura

Cards per match 3.9
Penalties per match 0.29
Matches 28

Team strength

Rayo Vallecano

Alaves

55 L90 StrengthIn forecast 49

58 Current StrengthIn forecast 48

61 AttackIn forecast 48

60 DefenceIn forecast 55

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Rayo Vallecano

Attack—

Defense risk—

Alaves

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Rayo Vallecano

Alaves

1.22 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.00

1.11 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.89

1.39 xGVia Att/Def 0.99

1.30 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.79

-0.17 Goals minus xGContext +0.01

67% Scored inContext 67%

22% Clean sheetsContext 22%

12.11 ShotsContext 11.44

4.33 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.56

36% On target shareContext 31%

7.89 Shots in the boxContext 7.75

64% Box shareContext 62%

10% ConversionContext 9%

2.86 OffsidesContext 2.63

10.44 Shots allowedContext 9.67

4.11 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.22

3.44 BlocksContext 3.50

3.25 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.63

72% Save rateContext 75%

53% PossessionIn forecast 52%

440 PassesContext 425

367 Accurate passesContext 343

83% Pass accuracyContext 81%

6.82 Team ratingContext 6.79

12.56 FoulsContext 15.78

10.89 Fouls sufferedContext 14.44

2.44 Yellow cardsContext 2.00

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 9 and 9 games

1.60 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.00

1.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.90

1.31 xGVia Att/Def 1.04

1.28 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.87

+0.29 Goals minus xGContext -0.04

80% Scored inContext 70%

40% Clean sheetsContext 20%

13.20 ShotsContext 11.70

5.40 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.70

41% On target shareContext 32%

8.60 Shots in the boxContext 7.56

65% Box shareContext 60%

12% ConversionContext 9%

3.13 OffsidesContext 2.67

9.10 Shots allowedContext 10.60

4.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.40

3.00 BlocksContext 3.56

3.13 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.78

71% Save rateContext 76%

56% PossessionIn forecast 52%

464 PassesContext 418

389 Accurate passesContext 336

84% Pass accuracyContext 80%

6.87 Team ratingContext 6.83

12.00 FoulsContext 15.70

10.60 Fouls sufferedContext 13.60

2.40 Yellow cardsContext 2.00

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Rayo Vallecano

Rest7.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km604 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Alaves

Rest6 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel284 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Rayo Vallecano	Alaves
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7.1La Liga 2025-2026, 19 Oct	6La Liga 2025-2026, 20 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	284 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	604 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 2	1 / 1 / 2
Next matchdays after this one	5.7	6.8

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Rayo Vallecano Confirmed XI

4-3-3

13A. Batalla(G)

3Pep Chavarría 32N. Mendy 24F. Lejeune 2A. Rațiu

4Pedro Díaz 23Óscar Valentín 17Unai López

21Fran Pérez 9Alemão 19Jorge de Frutos

+2 more reported missing outside this XI

Alaves Confirmed XI

4-4-2

1Antonio Sivera(G)

3Youssef Lekhedim 5Jon Pacheco 14F. Tenaglia 17Jonny

10Carles Aleñá 4Denis Suárez 8Antonio Blanco 7Carlos Vicente

15L. Boyé 11Toni Martínez

+1 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Rayo Vallecano Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Alaves Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Rayo Vallecano+0.0 pp
Draw-0.1 pp
Alaves+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Rayo Vallecano · Home 0.67points per game · 3 home games

W-D-L: 0-2-1
Scored: 0.67
Conceded: 1.00

Alaves · Away 1.00points per game · 4 away games

W-D-L: 1-1-2
Scored: 0.50
Conceded: 0.75

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 4 this season

Opponent	Rayo Vallecano	Alaves
Levante	W 3–0 A	W 2–1 H
Sevilla	L 0–1 H	L 1–2 H
Atletico Madrid	L 2–3 A	D 1–1 H
Athletic Club	L 0–1 A	W 1–0 A
Points	3 of 12 · 0.75 per game	7 of 12 · 1.75 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings

4 Rayo Vallecano wins0 draws2 Alaves wins

Goals per game1.17 – 0.33 Over 2.50% Both scored0% Clean sheets67% · 33%

29 Mar 2025Alaves0–2Rayo Vallecano
26 Oct 2024Rayo Vallecano1–0Alaves
10 Mar 2024Alaves1–0Rayo Vallecano
15 Sep 2023Rayo Vallecano2–0Alaves
16 Apr 2022Alaves1–0Rayo Vallecano
18 Dec 2021Rayo Vallecano2–0Alaves

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Rayo Vallecano	Alaves	Forecast
Scored per game	1.22	1.00
Conceded per game	1.11	0.89
Match goals	2.33	1.89	2.62
Over 1.5	67%	56%
Over 2.5	33%	33%	49%
Over 3.5	22%	11%
Both teams scored	44%	56%	53%
Clean sheets	22%	22%
Failed to score	33%	33%
Games	9	9

	Rayo Vallecano	Alaves	Forecast
Scored per game	1.22	1.00
Conceded per game	1.11	0.89
Match goals	2.33	1.89	2.62
Over 1.5	67%	56%
Over 2.5	33%	33%	49%
Over 3.5	22%	11%
Both teams scored	44%	56%	53%
Clean sheets	22%	22%
Failed to score	33%	33%
Games	9	9

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Rayo Vallecano	Alaves	League
Corners
Corners won	6.33	6.38
Corners conceded	5.33	4.00
Match total	11.66	10.38	9.84
Over 8.5	89% 8/9	63% 5/8
Over 9.5	67% 6/9	50% 4/8
Over 10.5	67% 6/9	50% 4/8
Cards
Cards	2.56	2.00
Opponent cards	1.33	2.78
Match total	3.89	4.78	4.42
Over 3.5	56% 5/9	78% 7/9
Over 4.5	44% 4/9	67% 6/9

	Rayo Vallecano	Alaves	League
Corners
Corners won	6.50	6.22
Corners conceded	6.63	4.56
Match total	13.13	10.78	9.84
Over 8.5	100% 8/8	67% 6/9
Over 9.5	88% 7/8	56% 5/9
Over 10.5	88% 7/8	56% 5/9
Cards
Cards	2.50	2.00
Opponent cards	1.90	2.70
Match total	4.40	4.70	4.42
Over 3.5	50% 5/10	80% 8/10
Over 4.5	50% 5/10	60% 6/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Victor Garcia Verdura Spain · 28 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.71league 4.14

Red cards0.21league 0.28

Cards 5+39%league 47%

Fouls25.8league 24.8

Penalties0.29league 0.35

Home wins36%league 45%

Rayo Vallecano4 with this referee

Record2-2-0 Cards · opp.2.3 · 1.8 Pens for · against1 · 0

D21 Sep 25H · Celta Vigo1–11
W2 May 25H · Getafe1–03
D11 Dec 23H · Celta Vigo0–03
W15 Sep 23H · Alaves2–02

Alaves5 with this referee

Record0-3-2 Cards · opp.2.2 · 3.2 Pens for · against2 · 2

D30 Aug 25H · Atletico Madrid1–12
L14 Apr 24A · Granada CF0–22
D24 Feb 24H · Mallorca1–10
D2 Jan 24A · Real Sociedad1–14
L15 Sep 23A · Rayo Vallecano0–23

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.