Rayo Vallecano vs Atletico Madrid – 15 Feb 2026

La Liga Gameweek 24 Sun, Feb 15 · 15:15 Estadio de Vallecas, Madrid

Rayo Vallecano 18th · 22 pts · 22 played DWLLL

3–0Full time

Atletico Madrid 3rd · 45 pts · 23 played DWWDL

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Atletico Madrid were slight favourites.

Atletico Madrid were the stronger side on L90 Strength (82 vs 46). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Rayo Vallecano. Rayo Vallecano had 14.1 days of rest, Atletico Madrid 6.9 and had to travel 0 km.

Away travel0 kmRest days14.1 · 6.9Matches / 14d0 · 1

Rayo Vallecano24%

Draw27%

Atletico Madrid49%

Expected goals 1.00 – 1.52

Rayo Vallecano21%

Draw25%

Atletico Madrid54%

Expected goals 1.02 – 1.76

Rayo Vallecano25%

Draw27%

Atletico Madrid48%

Expected goals 1.00 – 1.49

Rayo Vallecano19%

Draw25%

Atletico Madrid56%

Expected goals 0.89 – 1.71

Rayo Vallecano24%

Draw27%

Atletico Madrid49%

Expected goals 1.03 – 1.57

Over 2.5 46% Both score 50% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Madrid)

No weather data yet

Referee · SpainRicardo De Burgos Bengoetxea

Cards per match 3.9
Penalties per match 0.33
Matches 45

Team strength

Rayo Vallecano

Atletico Madrid

46 L90 StrengthIn forecast 82

58 Current StrengthIn forecast 80

61 AttackIn forecast 82

60 DefenceIn forecast 87

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Rayo Vallecano

Attack—

Defense risk—

Atletico Madrid

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Rayo Vallecano

Atletico Madrid

0.82 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.65

1.36 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.78

1.21 xGVia Att/Def 1.47

1.28 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.01

-0.39 Goals minus xGContext +0.18

55% Scored inContext 87%

27% Clean sheetsContext 43%

12.77 ShotsContext 12.91

4.14 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.39

32% On target shareContext 42%

7.14 Shots in the boxContext 8.96

56% Box shareContext 69%

6% ConversionContext 13%

2.37 OffsidesContext 2.65

11.73 Shots allowedContext 10.13

4.23 On target allowedVia Att/Def 2.91

3.36 BlocksContext 2.67

2.95 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.14

66% Save rateContext 73%

54% PossessionIn forecast 55%

431 PassesContext 511

359 Accurate passesContext 439

83% Pass accuracyContext 86%

6.74 Team ratingContext 6.93

13.09 FoulsContext 11.17

10.73 Fouls sufferedContext 9.61

2.68 Yellow cardsContext 1.96

0.18 Red cardsContext 0.04

This league season, per match · 22 and 23 games

1.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.50

1.60 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.80

1.10 xGVia Att/Def 1.33

1.23 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.10

-0.10 Goals minus xGContext +0.17

60% Scored inContext 80%

20% Clean sheetsContext 40%

13.20 ShotsContext 14.80

4.10 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.70

31% On target shareContext 39%

6.70 Shots in the boxContext 10.20

51% Box shareContext 70%

8% ConversionContext 10%

2.44 OffsidesContext 3.13

11.90 Shots allowedContext 10.00

4.10 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.33

2.70 BlocksContext 2.90

2.40 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.22

59% Save rateContext 67%

58% PossessionIn forecast 55%

436 PassesContext 526

363 Accurate passesContext 454

83% Pass accuracyContext 86%

6.67 Team ratingContext 6.97

14.20 FoulsContext 11.60

12.10 Fouls sufferedContext 7.80

3.40 Yellow cardsContext 2.40

0.30 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Rayo Vallecano

Rest14.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Atletico Madrid

Rest6.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Rayo Vallecano	Atletico Madrid
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	14.1La Liga 2025-2026, 1 Feb	6.9La Liga 2025-2026, 8 Feb
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	0 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 0 / 3	1 / 1 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	6	6.2

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Rayo Vallecano Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

13A. Batalla(G)

22A. Espino 32N. Mendy 24F. Lejeune 2A. Rațiu

15Gerard Gumbau 23Óscar Valentín

21Fran Pérez 7Isi Palazón 12I. Akhomach

19Jorge de Frutos

+5 more reported missing outside this XI

Atletico Madrid Confirmed XI

4-5-1

13J. Oblak(G)

3M. Ruggeri 15C. Lenglet 2J. Giménez 16N. Molina

23N. González 10Álex Baena 5J. Cardoso 4Rodrigo Mendoza 11T. Almada

9A. Sørloth

+1 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Rayo Vallecano Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Atletico Madrid Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Rayo Vallecano-0.6 pp
Draw-0.3 pp
Atletico Madrid+1.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Rayo Vallecano · Home 1.20points per game · 10 home games

W-D-L: 2-6-2
Scored: 0.80
Conceded: 0.90

Atletico Madrid · Away 1.27points per game · 11 away games

W-D-L: 3-5-3
Scored: 1.09
Conceded: 0.91

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 18 this season

Opponent	Rayo Vallecano	Atletico Madrid
Real Madrid	L 1–2 AD 0–0 H	W 5–2 H
Osasuna	L 1–3 HL 0–2 A	W 1–0 H
Celta Vigo	L 0–3 AD 1–1 H	D 1–1 A
Mallorca	W 2–1 H	W 3–0 HD 1–1 A
Getafe	D 1–1 H	W 1–0 A
Elche	L 0–4 A	D 1–1 H
Real Betis	D 0–0 H	L 0–1 HW 2–0 A
Espanyol	L 0–1 A	L 1–2 A
Valencia	D 1–1 H	W 2–1 H
Oviedo	D 0–0 A	W 2–0 H
Villarreal	L 0–4 A	W 2–0 H
Alaves	W 1–0 H	W 1–0 HD 1–1 A
Levante	W 3–0 A	D 0–0 AW 3–1 H
Real Sociedad	W 1–0 A	D 1–1 A
Sevilla	L 0–1 H	W 3–0 H
Barcelona	D 1–1 H	L 1–3 A
Athletic Club	L 0–1 A	L 0–1 A
Girona	W 3–1 A	W 3–0 A
Points	22 of 63 · 1.05 per game	42 of 66 · 1.91 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings

0 Rayo Vallecano wins2 draws7 Atletico Madrid wins

Goals per game0.67 – 2.44 Over 2.556% Both scored56% Clean sheets0% · 44%

24 Sep 2025Atletico Madrid3–2Rayo Vallecano
24 Apr 2025Atletico Madrid3–0Rayo Vallecano
22 Sep 2024Rayo Vallecano1–1Atletico Madrid
31 Jan 2024Atletico Madrid2–1Rayo Vallecano
28 Aug 2023Rayo Vallecano0–7Atletico Madrid
9 Apr 2023Rayo Vallecano1–2Atletico Madrid

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Rayo Vallecano	Atletico Madrid	Forecast
Scored per game	0.82	1.65
Conceded per game	1.36	0.78
Match goals	2.18	2.43	2.52
Over 1.5	64%	74%
Over 2.5	41%	39%	46%
Over 3.5	23%	17%
Both teams scored	41%	48%	50%
Clean sheets	27%	43%
Failed to score	45%	13%
Games	22	23

	Rayo Vallecano	Atletico Madrid	Forecast
Scored per game	0.60	1.30
Conceded per game	1.60	0.70
Match goals	2.20	2.00	2.52
Over 1.5	70%	60%
Over 2.5	50%	40%	46%
Over 3.5	20%	10%
Both teams scored	50%	30%	50%
Clean sheets	20%	50%
Failed to score	50%	30%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Rayo Vallecano	Atletico Madrid	League
Corners
Corners won	5.73	6.83
Corners conceded	5.00	3.65
Match total	10.73	10.48	9.56
Over 8.5	77% 17/22	78% 18/23
Over 9.5	59% 13/22	57% 13/23
Over 10.5	55% 12/22	52% 12/23
Cards
Cards	3.00	2.04
Opponent cards	2.05	2.09
Match total	5.05	4.13	4.41
Over 3.5	73% 16/22	61% 14/23
Over 4.5	59% 13/22	39% 9/23

	Rayo Vallecano	Atletico Madrid	League
Corners
Corners won	4.80	6.70
Corners conceded	4.20	4.40
Match total	9.00	11.10	9.56
Over 8.5	60% 6/10	90% 9/10
Over 9.5	40% 4/10	90% 9/10
Over 10.5	30% 3/10	80% 8/10
Cards
Cards	3.90	2.40
Opponent cards	2.70	2.00
Match total	6.60	4.40	4.41
Over 3.5	90% 9/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	80% 8/10	40% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Ricardo De Burgos Bengoetxea Spain · 45 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.67league 4.15

Red cards0.22league 0.27

Cards 5+31%league 45%

Fouls21.9league 24.6

Penalties0.33league 0.38

Home wins49%league 47%

Rayo Vallecano3 with this referee

Record0-2-1 Cards · opp.3.7 · 2.0 Pens for · against0 · 0 Reds1

D15 Dec 25H · Real Betis0–04
D24 May 25H · Mallorca0–02
L26 Feb 24A · Girona0–35

Atletico Madrid6 with this referee

Record4-1-1 Cards · opp.1.5 · 1.3 Pens for · against1 · 1

L2 Dec 25A · Barcelona1–31
W18 Oct 25H · Osasuna1–01
W13 Apr 24H · Girona3–13
W28 Jan 24H · Valencia2–02
W10 Dec 23H · Almeria2–11

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.