Rayo Vallecano
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Barcelona were clear favourites.
Barcelona were the stronger side on L90 Strength (91 vs 53). Rayo Vallecano had 6.1 days of rest, Barcelona 8 and had to travel 504 km.
Away travel504 kmRest days6.1 · 8Matches / 14d1 · 1
Rayo Vallecano16%
Draw22%
Barcelona62%
Rayo Vallecano17%
Draw23%
Barcelona61%
Rayo Vallecano16%
Draw22%
Barcelona62%
Rayo Vallecano12%
Draw19%
Barcelona69%
Rayo Vallecano17%
Draw23%
Barcelona61%
Over 2.5 56%
Both score 53%
Likeliest score 0–2
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Madrid)
No weather data yet
Referee · SpainMateo Busquets Ferrer
- Cards per match 5.7
- Penalties per match 0.22
- Matches 23
Team strength
Rayo Vallecano
Barcelona
53
L90 StrengthIn forecast
91
58
Current StrengthIn forecast
93
61
AttackIn forecast
97
60
DefenceIn forecast
92
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisBarcelona
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Rayo VallecanoBarcelona
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
3.00
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
1.71
xGVia Att/Def
2.03
1.10
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.17
-0.21
Goals minus xGContext
+0.97
50%
Scored inContext
100%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
10.00
ShotsContext
24.50
2.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
8.50
25%
On target shareContext
35%
6.00
Shots in the boxContext
13.50
52%
Box shareContext
55%
15%
ConversionContext
12%
4.00
OffsidesContext
—
8.50
Shots allowedContext
6.00
3.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.00
3.50
BlocksContext
1.50
2.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.00
67%
Save rateContext
67%
57%
PossessionIn forecast
77%
474
PassesContext
659
402
Accurate passesContext
597
85%
Pass accuracyContext
91%
6.80
Team ratingContext
7.04
15.00
FoulsContext
12.50
9.50
Fouls sufferedContext
9.00
2.50
Yellow cardsContext
1.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.60
0.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.60
1.33
xGVia Att/Def
2.26
1.28
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.33
+0.07
Goals minus xGContext
+0.34
70%
Scored inContext
100%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
14.30
ShotsContext
22.10
5.20
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
8.10
36%
On target shareContext
37%
7.80
Shots in the boxContext
13.10
52%
Box shareContext
59%
10%
ConversionContext
12%
3.20
OffsidesContext
1.57
10.00
Shots allowedContext
7.60
3.33
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.33
3.30
BlocksContext
1.63
2.33
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.14
70%
Save rateContext
63%
58%
PossessionIn forecast
74%
473
PassesContext
680
394
Accurate passesContext
613
83%
Pass accuracyContext
90%
6.98
Team ratingContext
7.20
11.60
FoulsContext
11.80
11.30
Fouls sufferedContext
11.40
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Rayo Vallecano
Rest6.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km646 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Barcelona
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel504 km605 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Rayo Vallecano |
Barcelona |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.1La Liga 2025-2026, 25 Aug | 8La Liga 2025-2026, 23 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 504 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 646 km | 605 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 2 | 0 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 13.9 | 14 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Rayo Vallecano
Confirmed XI
13A. Batalla(G)
3Pep Chavarría
24F. Lejeune
5Luiz Felipe
2A. Rațiu
18Álvaro García
6P. Ciss
17Unai López
19Jorge de Frutos
4Pedro Díaz
7Isi Palazón
Barcelona
Confirmed XI
13Joan García(G)
3Alejandro Balde
15A. Christensen
24Eric García
23J. Koundé
8Pedri
21F. de Jong
11Raphinha
20Dani Olmo
10Lamine Yamal
7Ferran Torres
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Rayo Vallecano
Absences are shown before kick-off
Barcelona
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Rayo Vallecano+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Barcelona+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Rayo Vallecano · Home
No home games yet this season.
Barcelona · Away
3.00points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-0-0
- Scored
- 3.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings
3 Rayo Vallecano wins2 draws3 Barcelona wins
Goals per game0.75 – 1.00
Over 2.538%
Both scored38%
Clean sheets38% · 38%
- 17 Feb 2025Barcelona1–0Rayo Vallecano
- 27 Aug 2024Rayo Vallecano1–2Barcelona
- 19 May 2024Barcelona3–0Rayo Vallecano
- 25 Nov 2023Rayo Vallecano1–1Barcelona
- 26 Apr 2023Rayo Vallecano2–1Barcelona
- 13 Aug 2022Barcelona0–0Rayo Vallecano
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Rayo Vallecano | Barcelona | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.50 | 3.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.50 | 4.00 | 2.94 |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 100% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 0% | |
| Games | 2 | 2 |
| Rayo Vallecano | Barcelona | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.50 | 3.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.50 | 4.00 | 2.94 |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 100% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 0% | |
| Games | 2 | 2 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Rayo Vallecano | Barcelona | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.00 | 6.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 2.50 | 3.00 | |
| Match total | 7.50 | 9.00 | 9.04 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 1/2 | 100% 1/1 | |
| Over 9.5 | 0% 0/2 | 0% 0/1 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/2 | 0% 0/1 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.50 | 1.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 0.50 | 4.50 | |
| Match total | 3.00 | 5.50 | 3.61 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 1/2 | 100% 2/2 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Rayo Vallecano | Barcelona | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.33 | 7.78 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.78 | 2.89 | |
| Match total | 11.11 | 10.67 | 9.04 |
| Over 8.5 | 78% 7/9 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 6/9 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 56% 5/9 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 1.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.70 | 2.60 | |
| Match total | 3.70 | 4.10 | 3.61 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Mateo Busquets Ferrer Spain · 23 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards5.30league 3.33
Red cards0.39league 0.23
Cards 5+70%league 27%
Fouls24.3league 23.5
Penalties0.22league 0.30
Home wins52%league 47%
Rayo Vallecano1 with this referee
Record0-1-0
Cards · opp.3.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 1
- D29 Oct 23H · Real Sociedad2–23
Barcelona2 with this referee
Record2-0-0
Cards · opp.3.5 · 1.5
Pens for · against1 · 0
- W30 Mar 24H · Las Palmas1–05
- W12 Nov 23H · Alaves2–12
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Rayo Vallecano2 games · scored 3 · conceded 2
0-15
2
16-30
1
31-45
1
46-60
1
61-75
76-90
Barcelona2 games · scored 6 · conceded 2
1
1
0-15
1
16-30
1
31-45
2
46-60
61-75
2
76-90
Rayo Vallecano10 games · scored 14 · conceded 8
1
2
0-15
3
16-30
4
1
31-45
2
46-60
3
2
61-75
3
1
76-90
Barcelona10 games · scored 26 · conceded 16
2
6
0-15
4
2
16-30
6
2
31-45
8
1
46-60
1
2
61-75
5
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
