Rayo Vallecano vs Celta Vigo – 21 Sep 2025

La Liga Gameweek 5 Sun, Sep 21 · 13:00 Estadio de Vallecas, Madrid

Rayo Vallecano 15th · 4 pts · 4 played WLDL

1–1Full time

Celta Vigo 16th · 4 pts · 5 played LDDDD

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Rayo Vallecano were slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Rayo Vallecano had 6.8 days of rest, Celta Vigo 7 and had to travel 465 km.

Away travel465 kmRest days6.8 · 7Matches / 14d1 · 1

Rayo Vallecano44%

Draw27%

Celta Vigo29%

Expected goals 1.51 – 1.18

Rayo Vallecano43%

Draw27%

Celta Vigo30%

Expected goals 1.49 – 1.20

Rayo Vallecano43%

Draw27%

Celta Vigo30%

Expected goals 1.46 – 1.17

Rayo Vallecano37%

Draw27%

Celta Vigo36%

Expected goals 1.34 – 1.32

Rayo Vallecano44%

Draw26%

Celta Vigo29%

Expected goals 1.54 – 1.21

Over 2.5 50% Both score 55% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Madrid)

No weather data yet

Referee · SpainVictor Garcia Verdura

Cards per match 4.2
Penalties per match 0.32
Matches 25

Team strength

Rayo Vallecano

Celta Vigo

53 L90 StrengthIn forecast 53

58 Current StrengthIn forecast 54

61 AttackIn forecast 36

60 DefenceIn forecast 61

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Rayo Vallecano

Attack—

Defense risk—

Celta Vigo

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Rayo Vallecano

Celta Vigo

1.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.80

1.25 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.20

1.56 xGVia Att/Def 0.99

1.43 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.88

-0.56 Goals minus xGContext -0.19

50% Scored inContext 80%

0% Clean sheetsContext 0%

12.75 ShotsContext 12.40

4.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.80

35% On target shareContext 31%

8.50 Shots in the boxContext 7.60

63% Box shareContext 58%

8% ConversionContext 7%

4.00 OffsidesContext 2.67

9.50 Shots allowedContext 10.00

4.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.00

2.75 BlocksContext 2.40

2.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.25

63% Save rateContext 72%

56% PossessionIn forecast 58%

457 PassesContext 568

382 Accurate passesContext 500

84% Pass accuracyContext 88%

6.73 Team ratingContext 6.88

13.25 FoulsContext 11.20

10.00 Fouls sufferedContext 11.00

2.75 Yellow cardsContext 1.60

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 4 and 5 games

1.40 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.30

0.80 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.40

1.44 xGVia Att/Def 1.24

1.30 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.13

-0.04 Goals minus xGContext +0.06

70% Scored inContext 90%

40% Clean sheetsContext 10%

15.00 ShotsContext 12.90

5.20 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.70

35% On target shareContext 36%

8.80 Shots in the boxContext 8.20

57% Box shareContext 63%

9% ConversionContext 10%

3.50 OffsidesContext 2.00

9.90 Shots allowedContext 11.10

3.78 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.20

3.20 BlocksContext 2.60

2.67 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.00

71% Save rateContext 76%

57% PossessionIn forecast 55%

467 PassesContext 520

389 Accurate passesContext 453

83% Pass accuracyContext 87%

6.96 Team ratingContext 6.94

11.30 FoulsContext 10.90

11.30 Fouls sufferedContext 12.40

2.10 Yellow cardsContext 1.60

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Rayo Vallecano

Rest6.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km634 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Celta Vigo

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel465 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Rayo Vallecano	Celta Vigo
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	6.8La Liga 2025-2026, 14 Sep	7La Liga 2025-2026, 14 Sep
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	465 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	634 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 1 / 3	1 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	3.3	4.3

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Rayo Vallecano Confirmed XI

4-4-2

13A. Batalla(G)

22A. Espino 6P. Ciss 24F. Lejeune 2A. Rațiu

18Álvaro García 23Óscar Valentín 4Pedro Díaz 19Jorge de Frutos

7Isi Palazón 10Sergio Camello

+5 more reported missing outside this XI

Celta Vigo Confirmed XI

3-4-3

13I. Radu(G)

21M. Ristić 29Yoel Lago 12Manu Fernández

5Sergio Carreira 8Fran Beltrán 22Hugo Sotelo 17Javi Rueda

15Bryan Zaragoza 7Borja Iglesias 23Hugo Álvarez

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Rayo Vallecano Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Celta Vigo Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Rayo Vallecano+1.0 pp
Draw-0.4 pp
Celta Vigo-0.6 pp

Home / Away this season

Rayo Vallecano · Home 1.00points per game · 1 home games

W-D-L: 0-1-0
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 1.00

Celta Vigo · Away 1.00points per game · 1 away games

W-D-L: 0-1-0
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 1.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 1 this season

Opponent	Rayo Vallecano	Celta Vigo
Girona	W 3–1 A	D 1–1 H
Points	3 of 3 · 3.00 per game	1 of 3 · 1.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings

2 Rayo Vallecano wins4 draws2 Celta Vigo wins

Goals per game0.50 – 0.88 Over 2.538% Both scored25% Clean sheets50% · 75%

18 May 2025Celta Vigo1–2Rayo Vallecano
10 Jan 2025Rayo Vallecano2–1Celta Vigo
31 Mar 2024Celta Vigo0–0Rayo Vallecano
11 Dec 2023Rayo Vallecano0–0Celta Vigo
11 Mar 2023Celta Vigo3–0Rayo Vallecano
10 Nov 2022Rayo Vallecano0–0Celta Vigo

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Rayo Vallecano	Celta Vigo	Forecast
Scored per game	1.00	0.80
Conceded per game	1.25	1.20
Match goals	2.25	2.00	2.69
Over 1.5	75%	100%
Over 2.5	25%	0%	50%
Over 3.5	25%	0%
Both teams scored	50%	80%	55%
Clean sheets	0%	0%
Failed to score	50%	20%
Games	4	5

	Rayo Vallecano	Celta Vigo	Forecast
Scored per game	1.00	0.80
Conceded per game	1.25	1.20
Match goals	2.25	2.00	2.69
Over 1.5	75%	100%
Over 2.5	25%	0%	50%
Over 3.5	25%	0%
Both teams scored	50%	80%	55%
Clean sheets	0%	0%
Failed to score	50%	20%
Games	4	5

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Rayo Vallecano	Celta Vigo	League
Corners
Corners won	6.25	6.40
Corners conceded	3.00	3.40
Match total	9.25	9.80	9.48
Over 8.5	75% 3/4	60% 3/5
Over 9.5	25% 1/4	60% 3/5
Over 10.5	25% 1/4	40% 2/5
Cards
Cards	2.75	1.60
Opponent cards	1.25	2.20
Match total	4.00	3.80	4.25
Over 3.5	75% 3/4	40% 2/5
Over 4.5	50% 2/4	40% 2/5

	Rayo Vallecano	Celta Vigo	League
Corners
Corners won	7.00	5.70
Corners conceded	4.56	4.50
Match total	11.56	10.20	9.48
Over 8.5	89% 8/9	70% 7/10
Over 9.5	67% 6/9	60% 6/10
Over 10.5	67% 6/9	40% 4/10
Cards
Cards	2.10	1.70
Opponent cards	1.80	2.50
Match total	3.90	4.20	4.25
Over 3.5	70% 7/10	50% 5/10
Over 4.5	40% 4/10	40% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Victor Garcia Verdura Spain · 25 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.92league 3.91

Red cards0.24league 0.30

Cards 5+44%league 40%

Fouls26.9league 24.6

Penalties0.32league 0.34

Home wins36%league 49%

Rayo Vallecano3 with this referee

Record2-1-0 Cards · opp.2.7 · 2.0 Pens for · against1 · 0

W2 May 25H · Getafe1–03
D11 Dec 23H · Celta Vigo0–03
W15 Sep 23H · Alaves2–02

Celta Vigo4 with this referee

Record2-2-0 Cards · opp.1.0 · 2.5 Pens for · against0 · 0

W13 May 25A · Real Sociedad1–01
W15 May 24H · Athletic Club2–12
D13 Jan 24A · Mallorca1–11
D11 Dec 23A · Rayo Vallecano0–00

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.