Rayo Vallecano
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Rayo Vallecano were slight favourites.
Rayo Vallecano were the stronger side on L90 Strength (50 vs 38). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Rayo Vallecano. Rayo Vallecano had 12.3 days of rest, Elche 13.3 and had to travel 352 km.
Away travel352 kmRest days12.3 · 13.3Matches / 14d1 · 1
Rayo Vallecano53%
Draw26%
Elche21%
Rayo Vallecano51%
Draw25%
Elche23%
Rayo Vallecano53%
Draw26%
Elche21%
Rayo Vallecano46%
Draw27%
Elche27%
Rayo Vallecano54%
Draw25%
Elche21%
Over 2.5 49%
Both score 51%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Madrid)
No weather data yet
Referee · SpainJosé Luis Munuera Montero
- Cards per match 4.7
- Penalties per match 0.20
- Matches 40
Team strength
Rayo Vallecano
Elche
50
L90 StrengthIn forecast
38
58
Current StrengthIn forecast
44
61
AttackIn forecast
39
60
DefenceIn forecast
51
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisElche
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Rayo VallecanoElche
0.97
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.31
1.21
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.59
1.26
xGVia Att/Def
1.12
1.25
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.70
-0.29
Goals minus xGContext
+0.19
62%
Scored inContext
86%
28%
Clean sheetsContext
21%
12.83
ShotsContext
10.72
4.38
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.00
34%
On target shareContext
36%
7.28
Shots in the boxContext
7.55
56%
Box shareContext
67%
8%
ConversionContext
12%
2.36
OffsidesContext
2.20
11.79
Shots allowedContext
14.14
3.97
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.79
3.69
BlocksContext
3.83
2.78
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.21
67%
Save rateContext
66%
53%
PossessionIn forecast
58%
417
PassesContext
505
344
Accurate passesContext
435
83%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.77
Team ratingContext
6.87
12.45
FoulsContext
12.79
11.31
Fouls sufferedContext
13.79
2.55
Yellow cardsContext
2.14
0.14
Red cardsContext
0.07
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.30
0.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.20
1.27
xGVia Att/Def
1.23
1.17
xG allowedVia Att/Def
2.33
+0.13
Goals minus xGContext
+0.07
80%
Scored inContext
90%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
12.70
ShotsContext
10.70
5.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.30
39%
On target shareContext
40%
7.20
Shots in the boxContext
7.80
56%
Box shareContext
69%
11%
ConversionContext
12%
2.11
OffsidesContext
2.00
11.80
Shots allowedContext
16.50
3.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.60
3.90
BlocksContext
4.70
2.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.44
71%
Save rateContext
59%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
57%
362
PassesContext
468
287
Accurate passesContext
391
79%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.82
Team ratingContext
6.79
11.70
FoulsContext
13.00
11.90
Fouls sufferedContext
13.70
2.60
Yellow cardsContext
2.50
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Rayo Vallecano
Rest12.3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km1,008 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Elche
Rest13.3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel352 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Rayo Vallecano |
Elche |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 12.3La Liga 2025-2026, 22 Mar | 13.3La Liga 2025-2026, 21 Mar |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 352 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,008 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 8.8 | 7.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Rayo Vallecano
Confirmed XI
13A. Batalla(G)
3Pep Chavarría
5Luiz Felipe
24F. Lejeune
2A. Rațiu
17Unai López
23Óscar Valentín
7Isi Palazón
18Álvaro García
9Alemão
19Jorge de Frutos
Elche
Confirmed XI
1M. Dituro(G)
21L. Pétrot
6Bigas
22D. Affengruber
15Tete Morente
14Aleix Febas
8Marc Aguado
42Buba Sangaré
10Rafa Mir
20Á. Rodríguez
11Germán Valera
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Rayo Vallecano
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Elche
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Rayo Vallecano+0.2 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- Elche+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Rayo Vallecano · Home
1.43points per game · 14 home games
- W-D-L
- 4-8-2
- Scored
- 1.14
- Conceded
- 0.79
Elche · Away
0.29points per game · 14 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-4-10
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 2.14
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Rayo Vallecano | Elche |
|---|---|---|
| Barcelona | L 0–1 AD 1–1 H | L 1–3 HL 1–3 A |
| Levante | D 1–1 HW 3–0 A | L 2–3 AW 2–0 H |
| Sevilla | D 1–1 AL 0–1 H | D 2–2 HD 2–2 A |
| Oviedo | W 3–0 HD 0–0 A | W 1–0 H |
| Athletic Club | D 1–1 HL 0–1 A | L 1–2 AD 0–0 H |
| Real Betis | D 1–1 AD 0–0 H | D 1–1 H |
| Atletico Madrid | W 3–0 HL 2–3 A | D 1–1 A |
| Real Madrid | L 1–2 AD 0–0 H | L 1–4 AD 2–2 H |
| Osasuna | L 1–3 HL 0–2 A | D 0–0 HD 1–1 A |
| Celta Vigo | L 0–3 AD 1–1 H | W 2–1 H |
| Mallorca | W 2–1 H | W 2–1 HL 1–3 A |
| Getafe | D 1–1 H | L 0–1 A |
| Espanyol | L 0–1 A | D 2–2 HL 0–1 A |
| Valencia | D 1–1 H | D 1–1 A |
| Villarreal | L 0–4 A | L 1–2 AL 1–3 H |
| Alaves | W 1–0 H | L 1–3 A |
| Real Sociedad | W 1–0 A | L 1–3 AD 1–1 H |
| Girona | W 3–1 A | W 3–0 H |
| Points | 32 of 84 · 1.14 per game | 26 of 84 · 0.93 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings
2 Rayo Vallecano wins0 draws3 Elche wins
Goals per game1.00 – 2.40
Over 2.5100%
Both scored60%
Clean sheets0% · 40%
- 21 Dec 2025Elche4–0Rayo Vallecano
- 29 Apr 2023Elche4–0Rayo Vallecano
- 3 Oct 2022Rayo Vallecano2–1Elche
- 18 Feb 2022Elche2–1Rayo Vallecano
- 17 Oct 2021Rayo Vallecano2–1Elche
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Rayo Vallecano | Elche | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.97 | 1.31 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.21 | 1.59 | |
| Match goals | 2.17 | 2.90 | 2.65 |
| Over 1.5 | 69% | 83% | |
| Over 2.5 | 38% | 62% | 49% |
| Over 3.5 | 17% | 45% | |
| Both teams scored | 45% | 72% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 28% | 21% | |
| Failed to score | 38% | 14% | |
| Games | 29 | 29 |
| Rayo Vallecano | Elche | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.20 | 1.30 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.30 | 2.20 | |
| Match goals | 2.50 | 3.50 | 2.65 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 90% | 49% |
| Over 3.5 | 10% | 60% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 90% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Rayo Vallecano | Elche | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.79 | 3.48 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.00 | 4.34 | |
| Match total | 10.79 | 7.82 | 9.48 |
| Over 8.5 | 76% 22/29 | 41% 12/29 | |
| Over 9.5 | 59% 17/29 | 31% 9/29 | |
| Over 10.5 | 55% 16/29 | 17% 5/29 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.83 | 2.24 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.28 | 2.28 | |
| Match total | 5.11 | 4.52 | 4.47 |
| Over 3.5 | 76% 22/29 | 79% 23/29 | |
| Over 4.5 | 59% 17/29 | 52% 15/29 | |
| Rayo Vallecano | Elche | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.00 | 3.90 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.60 | 4.50 | |
| Match total | 10.60 | 8.40 | 9.48 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 60% 6/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.90 | 2.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 3.20 | 2.20 | |
| Match total | 6.10 | 4.70 | 4.47 |
| Over 3.5 | 90% 9/10 | 90% 9/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 70% 7/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · José Luis Munuera Montero Spain · 40 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.45league 4.22
Red cards0.28league 0.28
Cards 5+53%league 47%
Fouls25.1league 24.5
Penalties0.20league 0.37
Home wins38%league 48%
Rayo Vallecano5 with this referee
Record0-1-4
Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.8
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L25 May 24H · Athletic Club0–11
- L10 Mar 24A · Alaves0–12
- L11 Feb 24A · Mallorca1–20
- D25 Nov 23H · Barcelona1–13
- L28 Aug 23H · Atletico Madrid0–74
Elche2 with this referee
Record0-0-2
Cards · opp.1.5 · 2.5
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L23 Jan 26A · Levante2–33
- L13 Dec 25A · Mallorca1–30
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Rayo Vallecano29 games · scored 28 · conceded 35
2
5
0-15
3
5
16-30
10
4
31-45
4
6
46-60
4
5
61-75
5
10
76-90
Elche29 games · scored 38 · conceded 46
5
9
0-15
4
4
16-30
4
6
31-45
8
5
46-60
8
6
61-75
9
16
76-90
Rayo Vallecano10 games · scored 14 · conceded 9
1
2
0-15
3
16-30
6
1
31-45
3
1
46-60
1
1
61-75
3
1
76-90
Elche10 games · scored 13 · conceded 22
2
2
0-15
1
1
16-30
2
6
31-45
1
3
46-60
3
5
61-75
4
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
