Rayo Vallecano vs Espanyol – 23 Apr 2026

La Liga Gameweek 33 Thu, Apr 23 · 19:00 Estadio de Vallecas, Madrid

Rayo Vallecano 16th · 35 pts · 31 played DDLWL

1–0Full time

Espanyol 11th · 38 pts · 31 played DLLDL

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Rayo Vallecano were slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Rayo Vallecano. Rayo Vallecano had 11.2 days of rest, Espanyol 12.1 and had to travel 497 km.

Away travel497 kmRest days11.2 · 12.1Matches / 14d1 · 1

Rayo Vallecano52%

Draw25%

Espanyol23%

Expected goals 1.70 – 1.07

Rayo Vallecano46%

Draw26%

Espanyol27%

Expected goals 1.57 – 1.14

Rayo Vallecano53%

Draw25%

Espanyol22%

Expected goals 1.71 – 1.02

Rayo Vallecano44%

Draw27%

Espanyol29%

Expected goals 1.52 – 1.20

Rayo Vallecano52%

Draw24%

Espanyol24%

Expected goals 1.84 – 1.18

Over 2.5 52% Both score 54% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Madrid)

No weather data yet

Referee · SpainAdrian Cordero Vega

Cards per match 4.4
Penalties per match 0.32
Matches 19

Team strength

Rayo Vallecano

Espanyol

49 L90 StrengthIn forecast 45

58 Current StrengthIn forecast 44

61 AttackIn forecast 36

60 DefenceIn forecast 51

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Rayo Vallecano

Attack—

Defense risk—

Espanyol

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Rayo Vallecano

Espanyol

0.94 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.19

1.23 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.55

1.27 xGVia Att/Def 1.25

1.24 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.39

-0.33 Goals minus xGContext -0.06

61% Scored inContext 81%

29% Clean sheetsContext 26%

13.10 ShotsContext 12.39

4.32 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.03

33% On target shareContext 33%

7.39 Shots in the boxContext 7.83

56% Box shareContext 62%

7% ConversionContext 10%

2.50 OffsidesContext 2.26

11.71 Shots allowedContext 12.84

3.97 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.03

3.67 BlocksContext 3.47

2.76 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.66

67% Save rateContext 70%

54% PossessionIn forecast 42%

415 PassesContext 346

343 Accurate passesContext 275

83% Pass accuracyContext 79%

6.77 Team ratingContext 6.75

12.48 FoulsContext 13.61

11.26 Fouls sufferedContext 12.48

2.52 Yellow cardsContext 2.29

0.13 Red cardsContext 0.06

This league season, per match · 31 and 31 games

1.30 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.20

1.10 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.30

1.47 xGVia Att/Def 0.98

1.22 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.79

-0.17 Goals minus xGContext +0.22

70% Scored inContext 90%

30% Clean sheetsContext 10%

12.90 ShotsContext 11.30

4.20 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.30

33% On target shareContext 29%

7.60 Shots in the boxContext 6.38

59% Box shareContext 55%

10% ConversionContext 11%

2.29 OffsidesContext 2.56

12.10 Shots allowedContext 14.70

3.90 On target allowedVia Att/Def 6.80

3.78 BlocksContext 3.11

2.60 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.67

67% Save rateContext 65%

49% PossessionIn forecast 42%

340 PassesContext 348

268 Accurate passesContext 276

79% Pass accuracyContext 79%

6.80 Team ratingContext 6.62

12.40 FoulsContext 14.40

12.00 Fouls sufferedContext 12.80

2.10 Yellow cardsContext 2.80

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Rayo Vallecano

Rest11.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km1,098 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Espanyol

Rest12.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel497 km15 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Rayo Vallecano	Espanyol
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	11.2La Liga 2025-2026, 12 Apr	12.1La Liga 2025-2026, 11 Apr
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	497 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	1,098 km	15 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 2	0 / 1 / 2
Next matchdays after this one	2.8	4

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Rayo Vallecano Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1Dani Cárdenas(G)

3Pep Chavarría 33Jozhua Vertrouwd 6P. Ciss 2A. Rațiu

23Óscar Valentín 4Pedro Díaz

22A. Espino 7Isi Palazón 19Jorge de Frutos

9Alemão

+9 more reported missing outside this XI

Espanyol Confirmed XI

4-4-2

13M. Dmitrović(G)

22Carlos Romero 6L. Cabrera 5F. Calero Villa 23O. El Hilali

11Pere Milla 8Edu Expósito 10Pol Lozano 24T. Dolan

9R. Fernández Jaén 19Kike García

+2 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Rayo Vallecano Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.06 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Espanyol Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Rayo Vallecano-1.2 pp
Draw+0.1 pp
Espanyol+1.2 pp

Home / Away this season

Rayo Vallecano · Home 1.53points per game · 15 home games

W-D-L: 5-8-2
Scored: 1.13
Conceded: 0.73

Espanyol · Away 1.06points per game · 16 away games

W-D-L: 4-5-7
Scored: 1.19
Conceded: 1.69

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 18 this season

Opponent	Rayo Vallecano	Espanyol
Mallorca	L 0–3 AW 2–1 H	L 1–2 AW 3–2 H
Elche	W 1–0 HL 0–4 A	D 2–2 AW 1–0 H
Barcelona	L 0–1 AD 1–1 H	L 1–4 AL 0–2 H
Levante	D 1–1 HW 3–0 A	D 1–1 A
Sevilla	D 1–1 AL 0–1 H	W 2–1 H
Oviedo	W 3–0 HD 0–0 A	D 1–1 HW 2–0 A
Athletic Club	D 1–1 HL 0–1 A	W 2–1 A
Real Betis	D 1–1 AD 0–0 H	D 0–0 AL 1–2 H
Atletico Madrid	W 3–0 HL 2–3 A	L 2–4 AW 2–1 H
Real Madrid	L 1–2 AD 0–0 H	L 0–2 A
Osasuna	L 1–3 HL 0–2 A	W 1–0 H
Celta Vigo	L 0–3 AD 1–1 H	D 2–2 HW 1–0 A
Getafe	D 1–1 H	L 1–2 HW 1–0 A
Valencia	D 1–1 H	L 2–3 AD 2–2 H
Villarreal	L 0–4 A	L 1–4 AL 0–2 H
Alaves	W 1–0 H	L 1–2 HL 1–2 A
Real Sociedad	W 1–0 A	D 2–2 A
Girona	W 3–1 A	L 0–2 HD 0–0 A
Points	35 of 90 · 1.17 per game	35 of 90 · 1.17 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings

3 Rayo Vallecano wins0 draws4 Espanyol wins

Goals per game0.86 – 1.29 Over 2.543% Both scored29% Clean sheets43% · 29%

7 Dec 2025Espanyol1–0Rayo Vallecano
4 Apr 2025Rayo Vallecano0–4Espanyol
31 Aug 2024Espanyol2–1Rayo Vallecano
21 May 2023Rayo Vallecano1–2Espanyol
19 Aug 2022Espanyol0–2Rayo Vallecano
21 Apr 2022Espanyol0–1Rayo Vallecano

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Rayo Vallecano	Espanyol	Forecast
Scored per game	0.94	1.19
Conceded per game	1.23	1.55
Match goals	2.16	2.74	2.77
Over 1.5	68%	77%
Over 2.5	39%	55%	52%
Over 3.5	16%	29%
Both teams scored	42%	61%	54%
Clean sheets	29%	26%
Failed to score	39%	19%
Games	31	31

	Rayo Vallecano	Espanyol	Forecast
Scored per game	1.20	1.20
Conceded per game	1.00	2.30
Match goals	2.20	3.50	2.77
Over 1.5	80%	90%
Over 2.5	40%	80%	52%
Over 3.5	0%	50%
Both teams scored	50%	90%	54%
Clean sheets	30%	10%
Failed to score	20%	10%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Rayo Vallecano	Espanyol	League
Corners
Corners won	5.94	4.53
Corners conceded	5.00	4.60
Match total	10.94	9.13	9.60
Over 8.5	77% 24/31	47% 14/30
Over 9.5	61% 19/31	40% 12/30
Over 10.5	58% 18/31	33% 10/30
Cards
Cards	2.77	2.42
Opponent cards	2.29	2.42
Match total	5.06	4.84	4.54
Over 3.5	77% 24/31	68% 21/31
Over 4.5	58% 18/31	58% 18/31

	Rayo Vallecano	Espanyol	League
Corners
Corners won	6.00	4.89
Corners conceded	4.60	4.56
Match total	10.60	9.45	9.60
Over 8.5	70% 7/10	44% 4/9
Over 9.5	60% 6/10	44% 4/9
Over 10.5	60% 6/10	33% 3/9
Cards
Cards	2.20	3.00
Opponent cards	3.10	2.20
Match total	5.30	5.20	4.54
Over 3.5	90% 9/10	70% 7/10
Over 4.5	70% 7/10	60% 6/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Adrian Cordero Vega Spain · 19 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.21league 4.28

Red cards0.16league 0.28

Cards 5+47%league 48%

Fouls24.5league 24.5

Penalties0.32league 0.36

Home wins79%league 49%

Rayo Vallecano2 with this referee

Record0-0-2 Cards · opp.3.5 · 2.5 Pens for · against0 · 0

L22 Mar 26A · Barcelona0–14
L21 Dec 25A · Elche0–43

Espanyol1 with this referee

Record0-0-1 Cards · opp.3.0 · 3.0 Pens for · against0 · 0

L9 Feb 26A · Villarreal1–43

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.