Rayo Vallecano
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Rayo Vallecano were slight favourites.
Rayo Vallecano were the stronger side on L90 Strength (50 vs 44). Absences weigh more on Rayo Vallecano. Rayo Vallecano had 12.1 days of rest, Getafe 12 and had to travel 13 km.
Away travel13 kmRest days12.1 · 12Matches / 14d1 · 1
Rayo Vallecano46%
Draw28%
Getafe27%
Rayo Vallecano47%
Draw26%
Getafe26%
Rayo Vallecano47%
Draw27%
Getafe25%
Rayo Vallecano39%
Draw28%
Getafe33%
Rayo Vallecano46%
Draw27%
Getafe28%
Over 2.5 46%
Both score 51%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Madrid)
No weather data yet
Referee · SpainMiguel Angel Ortiz Arias
- Cards per match 4.0
- Penalties per match 0.24
- Matches 34
Team strength
Rayo Vallecano
Getafe
50
L90 StrengthIn forecast
44
58
Current StrengthIn forecast
48
61
AttackIn forecast
27
60
DefenceIn forecast
59
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisGetafe
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Rayo VallecanoGetafe
0.76
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.76
1.18
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.29
1.21
xGVia Att/Def
0.74
1.28
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.92
-0.45
Goals minus xGContext
+0.02
47%
Scored inContext
53%
35%
Clean sheetsContext
24%
13.00
ShotsContext
9.12
4.29
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.87
33%
On target shareContext
28%
7.29
Shots in the boxContext
4.87
56%
Box shareContext
49%
6%
ConversionContext
8%
2.43
OffsidesContext
2.60
11.59
Shots allowedContext
10.18
4.06
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.29
3.53
BlocksContext
2.33
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.29
68%
Save rateContext
77%
54%
PossessionIn forecast
41%
432
PassesContext
295
362
Accurate passesContext
209
84%
Pass accuracyContext
71%
6.77
Team ratingContext
6.69
12.88
FoulsContext
13.65
10.82
Fouls sufferedContext
15.06
2.53
Yellow cardsContext
2.76
0.06
Red cardsContext
0.12
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.50
1.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.30
1.19
xGVia Att/Def
0.75
0.89
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.05
-0.19
Goals minus xGContext
-0.25
50%
Scored inContext
40%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
15.80
ShotsContext
9.60
4.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.88
29%
On target shareContext
24%
8.00
Shots in the boxContext
5.00
50%
Box shareContext
49%
6%
ConversionContext
5%
2.00
OffsidesContext
2.67
11.30
Shots allowedContext
10.50
3.30
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.10
3.20
BlocksContext
2.50
2.11
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.00
61%
Save rateContext
78%
58%
PossessionIn forecast
43%
445
PassesContext
301
377
Accurate passesContext
212
85%
Pass accuracyContext
70%
6.80
Team ratingContext
6.65
13.90
FoulsContext
13.10
11.10
Fouls sufferedContext
15.20
3.20
Yellow cardsContext
2.90
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Rayo Vallecano
Rest12.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km704 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Getafe
Rest12 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel13 km757 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Rayo Vallecano |
Getafe |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 12.1La Liga 2025-2026, 21 Dec | 12La Liga 2025-2026, 21 Dec |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 13 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 704 km | 757 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 8.7 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Rayo Vallecano
Confirmed XI
13A. Batalla(G)
3Pep Chavarría
5Luiz Felipe
24F. Lejeune
2A. Rațiu
17Unai López
23Óscar Valentín
18Álvaro García
7Isi Palazón
19Jorge de Frutos
10Sergio Camello
Getafe
Confirmed XI
13David Soria(G)
16Diego Rico
2D. Dakonam
22Domingos Duarte
21Juan Iglesias
23Adrian Liso
8M. Arambarri
5Luis Milla
14Javi Muñoz
17Kiko Femenía
6Mario Martín
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Rayo Vallecano
Scores -0.06 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Getafe
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Rayo Vallecano-1.5 pp
- Draw+0.4 pp
- Getafe+1.1 pp
Home / Away this season
Rayo Vallecano · Home
1.14points per game · 7 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-5-1
- Scored
- 0.57
- Conceded
- 0.57
Getafe · Away
1.00points per game · 9 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-0-6
- Scored
- 0.67
- Conceded
- 1.78
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Rayo Vallecano | Getafe |
|---|---|---|
| Elche | L 0–4 A | W 1–0 H |
| Real Betis | D 0–0 H | L 0–4 A |
| Espanyol | L 0–1 A | L 0–1 H |
| Valencia | D 1–1 H | L 0–3 A |
| Oviedo | D 0–0 A | W 2–0 H |
| Real Madrid | D 0–0 H | L 0–1 H |
| Villarreal | L 0–4 A | L 0–2 A |
| Alaves | W 1–0 H | D 1–1 H |
| Levante | W 3–0 A | D 1–1 H |
| Sevilla | L 0–1 H | W 2–1 A |
| Atletico Madrid | L 2–3 A | L 0–1 H |
| Celta Vigo | D 1–1 H | W 2–0 A |
| Osasuna | L 0–2 A | L 1–2 A |
| Barcelona | D 1–1 H | L 0–3 A |
| Athletic Club | L 0–1 A | W 1–0 A |
| Girona | W 3–1 A | W 2–1 H |
| Points | 15 of 48 · 0.94 per game | 20 of 48 · 1.25 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings
3 Rayo Vallecano wins5 draws0 Getafe wins
Goals per game0.88 – 0.13
Over 2.513%
Both scored13%
Clean sheets88% · 50%
- 2 May 2025Rayo Vallecano1–0Getafe
- 24 Aug 2024Getafe0–0Rayo Vallecano
- 13 Apr 2024Rayo Vallecano0–0Getafe
- 2 Jan 2024Getafe0–2Rayo Vallecano
- 12 Feb 2023Getafe1–1Rayo Vallecano
- 14 Oct 2022Rayo Vallecano0–0Getafe
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Rayo Vallecano | Getafe | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.76 | 0.76 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.18 | 1.29 | |
| Match goals | 1.94 | 2.06 | 2.52 |
| Over 1.5 | 53% | 65% | |
| Over 2.5 | 29% | 35% | 46% |
| Over 3.5 | 24% | 6% | |
| Both teams scored | 29% | 29% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 35% | 24% | |
| Failed to score | 53% | 47% | |
| Games | 17 | 17 |
| Rayo Vallecano | Getafe | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.60 | 0.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.30 | |
| Match goals | 1.60 | 1.80 | 2.52 |
| Over 1.5 | 40% | 40% | |
| Over 2.5 | 30% | 30% | 46% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 10% | |
| Both teams scored | 10% | 20% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 60% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 60% | 60% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Rayo Vallecano | Getafe | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.00 | 4.59 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.06 | 4.18 | |
| Match total | 11.06 | 8.77 | 9.63 |
| Over 8.5 | 82% 14/17 | 47% 8/17 | |
| Over 9.5 | 59% 10/17 | 35% 6/17 | |
| Over 10.5 | 53% 9/17 | 24% 4/17 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.71 | 2.94 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.65 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 4.36 | 4.94 | 4.35 |
| Over 3.5 | 65% 11/17 | 76% 13/17 | |
| Over 4.5 | 53% 9/17 | 59% 10/17 | |
| Rayo Vallecano | Getafe | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.50 | 5.20 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.10 | 3.60 | |
| Match total | 10.60 | 8.80 | 9.63 |
| Over 8.5 | 80% 8/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.40 | 3.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.10 | 1.30 | |
| Match total | 5.50 | 4.50 | 4.35 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 80% 8/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Miguel Angel Ortiz Arias Spain · 34 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.74league 4.09
Red cards0.26league 0.27
Cards 5+47%league 45%
Fouls23.8league 24.5
Penalties0.24league 0.33
Home wins38%league 47%
Rayo VallecanoNo previous matches with this referee.
GetafeNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Rayo Vallecano17 games · scored 13 · conceded 20
1
3
0-15
3
1
16-30
3
2
31-45
4
46-60
3
5
61-75
3
5
76-90
Getafe17 games · scored 13 · conceded 22
1
2
0-15
1
3
16-30
2
4
31-45
4
5
46-60
4
3
61-75
1
5
76-90
Rayo Vallecano10 games · scored 10 · conceded 11
1
2
0-15
1
16-30
2
3
31-45
1
2
46-60
2
3
61-75
3
1
76-90
Getafe10 games · scored 5 · conceded 13
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
2
31-45
1
4
46-60
2
1
61-75
1
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
