Rayo Vallecano vs Girona – 11 May 2026

La Liga Gameweek 35 Mon, May 11 · 20:00 Estadio de Vallecas, Madrid

Rayo Vallecano 11th · 42 pts · 34 played WLWDW

1–1Full time

Girona 17th · 38 pts · 34 played WDLLL

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Rayo Vallecano were slight favourites.

Rayo Vallecano were the stronger side on L90 Strength (56 vs 46). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Rayo Vallecano. Rayo Vallecano had 8.2 days of rest, Girona 10 and had to travel 573 km.

Away travel573 kmRest days8.2 · 10Matches / 14d1 · 1

Rayo Vallecano51%

Draw25%

Girona23%

Expected goals 1.68 – 1.05

Rayo Vallecano50%

Draw26%

Girona24%

Expected goals 1.65 – 1.08

Rayo Vallecano51%

Draw25%

Girona23%

Expected goals 1.70 – 1.07

Rayo Vallecano44%

Draw27%

Girona29%

Expected goals 1.50 – 1.18

Rayo Vallecano52%

Draw25%

Girona23%

Expected goals 1.77 – 1.10

Over 2.5 51% Both score 53% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Madrid)

No weather data yet

Referee · SpainGuillermo Cuadra Fernandez

Cards per match 4.9
Penalties per match 0.40
Matches 43

Team strength

Rayo Vallecano

Girona

56 L90 StrengthIn forecast 46

58 Current StrengthIn forecast 45

61 AttackIn forecast 49

60 DefenceIn forecast 64

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Rayo Vallecano

Attack—

Defense risk—

Girona

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Rayo Vallecano

Girona

1.03 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.06

1.21 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.50

1.29 xGVia Att/Def 1.14

1.28 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.51

-0.26 Goals minus xGContext -0.08

65% Scored inContext 74%

32% Clean sheetsContext 18%

13.41 ShotsContext 10.06

4.53 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.85

34% On target shareContext 37%

7.56 Shots in the boxContext 6.62

56% Box shareContext 65%

8% ConversionContext 11%

2.50 OffsidesContext 2.50

11.82 Shots allowedContext 14.53

4.03 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.00

3.61 BlocksContext 3.59

2.84 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.65

68% Save rateContext 72%

54% PossessionIn forecast 51%

408 PassesContext 464

336 Accurate passesContext 398

82% Pass accuracyContext 86%

6.78 Team ratingContext 6.80

12.79 FoulsContext 10.47

11.26 Fouls sufferedContext 14.50

2.65 Yellow cardsContext 2.03

0.12 Red cardsContext 0.12

This league season, per match · 34 and 34 games

1.30 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.20

1.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.30

1.62 xGVia Att/Def 1.21

1.43 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.29

-0.32 Goals minus xGContext -0.01

80% Scored inContext 80%

60% Clean sheetsContext 20%

15.60 ShotsContext 11.10

5.40 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.00

35% On target shareContext 32%

9.10 Shots in the boxContext 7.40

62% Box shareContext 66%

8% ConversionContext 11%

3.00 OffsidesContext 2.25

12.00 Shots allowedContext 13.30

4.44 On target allowedVia Att/Def 6.00

3.44 BlocksContext 3.40

3.11 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.88

70% Save rateContext 77%

50% PossessionIn forecast 55%

344 PassesContext 526

277 Accurate passesContext 461

80% Pass accuracyContext 88%

6.85 Team ratingContext 6.87

14.70 FoulsContext 8.70

11.70 Fouls sufferedContext 15.30

3.10 Yellow cardsContext 1.70

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Rayo Vallecano

Rest8.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km25 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Girona

Rest10 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel573 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Rayo Vallecano	Girona
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	8.2La Liga 2025-2026, 3 May	10La Liga 2025-2026, 1 May
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	573 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	25 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 3	0 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	2.9	3

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Rayo Vallecano Confirmed XI

4-3-3

13A. Batalla(G)

3Pep Chavarría 24F. Lejeune 6P. Ciss 2A. Rațiu

17Unai López 23Óscar Valentín 4Pedro Díaz

21Fran Pérez 10Sergio Camello 19Jorge de Frutos

+5 more reported missing outside this XI

Girona Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

13P. Gazzaniga(G)

24Álex Moreno 12Vitor Reis 16Alejandro Francés 4Arnau Martínez

8Fran Beltrán 20A. Witsel

3Joel Roca 11T. Lemar 15V. Tsyhankov

18A. Ounahi

+7 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Rayo Vallecano Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Girona Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Rayo Vallecano-0.1 pp
Draw+0.2 pp
Girona-0.1 pp

Home / Away this season

Rayo Vallecano · Home 1.59points per game · 17 home games

W-D-L: 6-9-2
Scored: 1.24
Conceded: 0.82

Girona · Away 0.94points per game · 17 away games

W-D-L: 3-7-7
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 1.53

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 18 this season

Opponent	Rayo Vallecano	Girona
Getafe	W 2–0 AD 1–1 H	D 1–1 HL 1–2 A
Real Sociedad	D 3–3 HW 1–0 A	W 2–1 A
Espanyol	W 1–0 HL 0–1 A	W 2–0 AD 0–0 H
Mallorca	L 0–3 AW 2–1 H	L 0–1 HW 2–1 A
Elche	W 1–0 HL 0–4 A	L 0–3 A
Barcelona	L 0–1 AD 1–1 H	W 2–1 HL 1–2 A
Levante	D 1–1 HW 3–0 A	D 1–1 AL 0–4 H
Sevilla	D 1–1 AL 0–1 H	D 1–1 AL 0–2 H
Oviedo	W 3–0 HD 0–0 A	L 0–1 AD 3–3 H
Athletic Club	D 1–1 HL 0–1 A	W 3–0 HD 1–1 A
Real Betis	D 1–1 AD 0–0 H	L 2–3 HD 1–1 A
Atletico Madrid	W 3–0 HL 2–3 A	L 0–3 H
Real Madrid	L 1–2 AD 0–0 H	D 1–1 AD 1–1 H
Osasuna	L 1–3 HL 0–2 A	L 0–1 AW 1–0 H
Celta Vigo	L 0–3 AD 1–1 H	L 1–2 HD 1–1 A
Valencia	D 1–1 H	L 1–2 AW 2–1 H
Villarreal	L 0–4 A	W 1–0 HL 0–5 A
Alaves	W 1–0 H	D 2–2 AW 1–0 H
Points	39 of 99 · 1.18 per game	38 of 99 · 1.15 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings

2 Rayo Vallecano wins3 draws2 Girona wins

Goals per game1.43 – 1.57 Over 2.586% Both scored71% Clean sheets14% · 29%

15 Aug 2025Girona1–3Rayo Vallecano
26 Jan 2025Rayo Vallecano2–1Girona
25 Sep 2024Girona0–0Rayo Vallecano
26 Feb 2024Girona3–0Rayo Vallecano
11 Nov 2023Rayo Vallecano1–2Girona
18 Mar 2023Rayo Vallecano2–2Girona

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Rayo Vallecano	Girona	Forecast
Scored per game	1.03	1.06
Conceded per game	1.21	1.50
Match goals	2.24	2.56	2.73
Over 1.5	68%	79%
Over 2.5	38%	50%	51%
Over 3.5	18%	18%
Both teams scored	41%	59%	53%
Clean sheets	32%	18%
Failed to score	35%	26%
Games	34	34

	Rayo Vallecano	Girona	Forecast
Scored per game	1.30	1.20
Conceded per game	1.00	1.30
Match goals	2.30	2.50	2.73
Over 1.5	70%	70%
Over 2.5	30%	50%	51%
Over 3.5	10%	20%
Both teams scored	40%	60%	53%
Clean sheets	40%	20%
Failed to score	20%	20%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Rayo Vallecano	Girona	League
Corners
Corners won	5.79	4.19
Corners conceded	4.94	4.84
Match total	10.73	9.03	9.58
Over 8.5	76% 26/34	50% 16/32
Over 9.5	62% 21/34	41% 13/32
Over 10.5	56% 19/34	38% 12/32
Cards
Cards	2.91	2.21
Opponent cards	2.38	1.85
Match total	5.29	4.06	4.57
Over 3.5	79% 27/34	44% 15/34
Over 4.5	62% 21/34	29% 10/34

	Rayo Vallecano	Girona	League
Corners
Corners won	5.10	4.20
Corners conceded	4.90	5.00
Match total	10.00	9.20	9.58
Over 8.5	70% 7/10	50% 5/10
Over 9.5	60% 6/10	50% 5/10
Over 10.5	50% 5/10	50% 5/10
Cards
Cards	3.20	1.70
Opponent cards	3.10	2.10
Match total	6.30	3.80	4.57
Over 3.5	100% 10/10	70% 7/10
Over 4.5	90% 9/10	20% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Guillermo Cuadra Fernandez Spain · 43 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.53league 4.30

Red cards0.33league 0.28

Cards 5+60%league 48%

Fouls25.8league 24.5

Penalties0.40league 0.36

Home wins47%league 48%

Rayo Vallecano

No previous matches with this referee.

Girona2 with this referee

Record1-1-0 Cards · opp.1.0 · 2.5 Pens for · against0 · 1

D7 Mar 26A · Levante1–12
W19 May 24A · Valencia3–10

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.