Rayo Vallecano
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Rayo Vallecano51.4%fair odds 1.95
Draw25.5%fair odds 3.93
Girona23.2%fair odds 4.32
Expected goals1.68 – 1.05total 2.73
Likeliest score1–112.1%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Girona
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Rayo Vallecano ↓ · Girona → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 6.3 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 12.1 | 6.1 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.7 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 5.4 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Rayo Vallecano goals, columns Girona goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–112.1%8.24
- 1–010.3%9.66
- 2–19.7%10.36
- 2–09.2%10.89
- 0–07.1%13.99
- 0–16.3%15.97
- 1–26.1%16.51
- 3–15.4%18.53
- 3–05.1%19.48
- 2–25.1%19.70
Winning margin
12.2%
Rayo Vallecano by 3+
fair 8.22
15.9%
Rayo Vallecano by 2
fair 6.28
23.3%
Rayo Vallecano by 1
fair 4.29
25.5%
Draw
fair 3.93
14.4%
Girona by 1
fair 6.95
6.3%
Girona by 2
fair 15.97
2.5%
Girona by 3+
fair 39.80
Goal distribution
Total goals
7%0
17%1
25%2
22%3
15%4
14%5+
Rayo Vallecano goals
19%0
31%1
26%2
15%3
9%4+
Girona goals
35%0
37%1
19%2
7%3
2%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rayo Vallecano win | 51.4% | 52.3% | -0.9 pp |
| Draw | 25.5% | 24.6% | +0.9 pp |
| Girona win | 23.2% | 23.1% | +0.0 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 51.3% | 54.8% | -3.4 pp |
| Both teams score | 53.5% | 56.0% | -2.5 pp |
| Expected goals Rayo Vallecano | 1.68 | 1.77 | -0.09 |
| Expected goals Girona | 1.05 | 1.10 | -0.05 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Rayo Vallecano win51.4%1.95
- Draw25.5%3.93
- Girona win23.2%4.32
- Double chance Rayo Vallecano or draw76.8%1.30
- Double chance Rayo Vallecano or Girona74.5%1.34
- Double chance Girona or draw48.6%2.06
- Draw no bet Rayo Vallecano68.9%1.45
- Draw no bet Girona31.1%3.22
Goals
- Over 0.592.9%1.08
- Over 1.576.2%1.31
- Over 2.551.3%1.95
- Over 3.529.2%3.42
- Over 4.514.1%7.08
- Under 1.523.8%4.21
- Under 2.548.7%2.05
- Under 3.570.8%1.41
Both teams to score
- Yes53.5%1.87
- No46.5%2.15
- Yes and over 2.541.4%2.42
- Rayo Vallecano win and yes23.6%4.24
- Draw and yes18.3%5.46
- Girona win and yes11.6%8.62
Team goals
- Rayo Vallecano over 0.581.3%1.23
- Rayo Vallecano over 1.549.9%2.00
- Rayo Vallecano over 2.523.7%4.23
- Girona over 0.565.1%1.54
- Girona over 1.528.3%3.53
- Girona over 2.59.0%11.11
- Rayo Vallecano clean sheet34.9%2.86
- Girona clean sheet18.7%5.35
- Rayo Vallecano win to nil27.8%3.60
- Girona win to nil11.6%8.65
Handicap
- Rayo Vallecano −1.528.1%3.56
- Rayo Vallecano −2.512.2%8.22
- Girona +1.571.9%1.39
- Girona +2.587.8%1.14
- Girona −1.58.8%11.40
- Rayo Vallecano +1.591.2%1.10
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record La Liga 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored349
Favourite won51.9%
Avg chance given to result41.0%
1X2 Brier0.578
Over 2.5 called right57.6%
BTTS called right57.3%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 72 | 37.9% | 30.6% |
| 40–50% | 139 | 44.5% | 46.0% |
| 50–60% | 69 | 54.7% | 62.3% |
| 60–70% | 35 | 63.9% | 62.9% |
| 70–80% | 27 | 74.5% | 85.2% |
| 80%+ | 7 | 82.8% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 278 of 349 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5764 | 0.5705 |
| Avg chance given to result | 41.1% | 41.7% |
| Favourite won | 52.9% | 54.7% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 278 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 349 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.