Rayo Vallecano
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Rayo Vallecano were slight favourites.
Rayo Vallecano were the stronger side on L90 Strength (54 vs 40). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Rayo Vallecano. Rayo Vallecano had 8.1 days of rest, Levante 9.2 and had to travel 302 km.
Away travel302 kmRest days8.1 · 9.2Matches / 14d2 · 1
Rayo Vallecano59%
Draw25%
Levante16%
Rayo Vallecano52%
Draw25%
Levante23%
Rayo Vallecano56%
Draw26%
Levante18%
Rayo Vallecano52%
Draw27%
Levante21%
Rayo Vallecano60%
Draw24%
Levante17%
Over 2.5 46%
Both score 45%
Likeliest score 1–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Madrid)
No weather data yet
Referee · SpainCesar Soto Grado
- Cards per match 4.9
- Penalties per match 0.28
- Matches 39
Team strength
Rayo Vallecano
Levante
54
L90 StrengthIn forecast
40
58
Current StrengthIn forecast
48
61
AttackIn forecast
55
60
DefenceIn forecast
41
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisLevante
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Rayo VallecanoLevante
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.07
1.22
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.67
1.22
xGVia Att/Def
1.14
1.25
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.60
-0.22
Goals minus xGContext
-0.07
63%
Scored inContext
63%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
19%
12.85
ShotsContext
10.52
4.41
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.35
34%
On target shareContext
31%
7.22
Shots in the boxContext
6.81
55%
Box shareContext
63%
8%
ConversionContext
10%
2.39
OffsidesContext
2.18
11.41
Shots allowedContext
16.37
3.93
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.44
3.52
BlocksContext
4.41
2.72
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.92
66%
Save rateContext
70%
54%
PossessionIn forecast
42%
422
PassesContext
349
349
Accurate passesContext
276
83%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.78
Team ratingContext
6.76
12.63
FoulsContext
12.33
11.22
Fouls sufferedContext
12.22
2.52
Yellow cardsContext
2.07
0.15
Red cardsContext
0.11
1.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.90
1.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.60
1.22
xGVia Att/Def
0.99
1.17
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.60
+0.38
Goals minus xGContext
-0.09
90%
Scored inContext
50%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
12.20
ShotsContext
12.20
4.80
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.22
39%
On target shareContext
24%
6.90
Shots in the boxContext
7.40
54%
Box shareContext
57%
13%
ConversionContext
7%
2.11
OffsidesContext
1.78
10.80
Shots allowedContext
15.90
3.80
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.40
3.40
BlocksContext
4.00
2.40
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.00
63%
Save rateContext
69%
51%
PossessionIn forecast
43%
388
PassesContext
364
314
Accurate passesContext
294
81%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.80
Team ratingContext
6.79
11.90
FoulsContext
11.80
12.20
Fouls sufferedContext
12.90
2.40
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.30
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Rayo Vallecano
Rest8.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km781 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Levante
Rest9.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel302 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Rayo Vallecano |
Levante |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 8.1La Liga 2025-2026, 8 Mar | 9.2La Liga 2025-2026, 7 Mar |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 302 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 781 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 2 / 4 | 0 / 1 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 5.7 | 4.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Rayo Vallecano
Confirmed XI
13A. Batalla(G)
22A. Espino
32N. Mendy
24F. Lejeune
20I. Balliu
4Pedro Díaz
23Óscar Valentín
15Gerard Gumbau
21Fran Pérez
9Alemão
19Jorge de Frutos
Levante
Confirmed XI
13M. Ryan(G)
23Manu Sánchez
3A. Matturro
2M. Moreno
22J. Toljan
18Iker Losada
20Oriol Rey
26Kareem Tunde
9Iván Romero
17Víctor García
19Carlos Espí
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Rayo Vallecano
Absences are shown before kick-off
Levante
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.07 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Rayo Vallecano+2.4 pp
- Draw-0.9 pp
- Levante-1.5 pp
Home / Away this season
Rayo Vallecano · Home
1.46points per game · 13 home games
- W-D-L
- 4-7-2
- Scored
- 1.15
- Conceded
- 0.77
Levante · Away
0.85points per game · 13 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-2-8
- Scored
- 1.15
- Conceded
- 1.62
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Rayo Vallecano | Levante |
|---|---|---|
| Sevilla | D 1–1 AL 0–1 H | W 3–0 A |
| Oviedo | W 3–0 HD 0–0 A | W 2–0 A |
| Athletic Club | D 1–1 HL 0–1 A | L 2–4 AL 0–2 H |
| Real Betis | D 1–1 AD 0–0 H | D 2–2 H |
| Atletico Madrid | W 3–0 HL 2–3 A | D 0–0 HL 1–3 A |
| Real Madrid | L 1–2 AD 0–0 H | L 0–2 AL 1–4 H |
| Osasuna | L 1–3 HL 0–2 A | L 0–2 A |
| Celta Vigo | L 0–3 AD 1–1 H | L 1–2 H |
| Mallorca | W 2–1 H | D 1–1 A |
| Getafe | D 1–1 H | D 1–1 A |
| Elche | L 0–4 A | W 3–2 HL 0–2 A |
| Espanyol | L 0–1 A | D 1–1 H |
| Valencia | D 1–1 H | L 0–2 HL 0–1 A |
| Villarreal | L 0–4 A | L 0–1 H |
| Alaves | W 1–0 H | W 2–0 HL 1–2 A |
| Real Sociedad | W 1–0 A | D 1–1 H |
| Barcelona | D 1–1 H | L 0–3 AL 2–3 H |
| Girona | W 3–1 A | D 1–1 HW 4–0 A |
| Points | 28 of 78 · 1.08 per game | 22 of 78 · 0.85 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings
1 Rayo Vallecano wins1 draws1 Levante wins
Goals per game2.00 – 1.67
Over 2.567%
Both scored67%
Clean sheets33% · 0%
- 19 Oct 2025Levante0–3Rayo Vallecano
- 20 May 2022Rayo Vallecano2–4Levante
- 11 Sep 2021Levante1–1Rayo Vallecano
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Rayo Vallecano | Levante | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 1.07 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.22 | 1.67 | |
| Match goals | 2.22 | 2.74 | 2.50 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 89% | |
| Over 2.5 | 41% | 44% | 46% |
| Over 3.5 | 19% | 26% | |
| Both teams scored | 44% | 48% | 45% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 19% | |
| Failed to score | 37% | 37% | |
| Games | 27 | 27 |
| Rayo Vallecano | Levante | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.40 | 0.90 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.30 | 1.60 | |
| Match goals | 2.70 | 2.50 | 2.50 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 30% | 46% |
| Over 3.5 | 10% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 40% | 45% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 50% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Rayo Vallecano | Levante | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.70 | 4.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.93 | 5.92 | |
| Match total | 10.63 | 9.92 | 9.51 |
| Over 8.5 | 74% 20/27 | 50% 12/24 | |
| Over 9.5 | 56% 15/27 | 42% 10/24 | |
| Over 10.5 | 52% 14/27 | 33% 8/24 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.78 | 2.22 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.15 | 2.33 | |
| Match total | 4.93 | 4.55 | 4.45 |
| Over 3.5 | 74% 20/27 | 70% 19/27 | |
| Over 4.5 | 56% 15/27 | 52% 14/27 | |
| Rayo Vallecano | Levante | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.10 | 4.89 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.60 | 4.44 | |
| Match total | 9.70 | 9.33 | 9.51 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 5/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.80 | 1.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 3.00 | 2.50 | |
| Match total | 5.80 | 4.30 | 4.45 |
| Over 3.5 | 90% 9/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Cesar Soto Grado Spain · 39 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.59league 4.20
Red cards0.26league 0.28
Cards 5+54%league 47%
Fouls23.6league 24.5
Penalties0.28league 0.37
Home wins49%league 48%
Rayo Vallecano2 with this referee
Record0-0-2
Cards · opp.2.5 · 1.5
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L14 Sep 25A · Osasuna0–22
- L31 Jan 24A · Atletico Madrid1–23
Levante1 with this referee
Record0-1-0
Cards · opp.0.0 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D11 Jan 26H · Espanyol1–10
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Rayo Vallecano27 games · scored 27 · conceded 33
2
5
0-15
3
4
16-30
10
3
31-45
4
6
46-60
4
5
61-75
4
10
76-90
Levante27 games · scored 29 · conceded 45
3
6
0-15
4
3
16-30
3
9
31-45
5
8
46-60
5
6
61-75
9
13
76-90
Rayo Vallecano10 games · scored 16 · conceded 13
2
2
0-15
4
16-30
7
1
31-45
4
2
46-60
1
61-75
2
4
76-90
Levante10 games · scored 9 · conceded 16
2
0-15
1
16-30
2
31-45
3
3
46-60
1
2
61-75
5
6
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
