Rayo Vallecano vs Mallorca – 11 Jan 2026

La Liga Gameweek 19 Sun, Jan 11 · 13:00 Estadio de Vallecas, Madrid

Rayo Vallecano 15th · 19 pts · 18 played DLDLD

2–1Full time

Mallorca 17th · 18 pts · 18 played DDWDL

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Rayo Vallecano were slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Rayo Vallecano usually keep the ball (57% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. Rayo Vallecano had 8.7 days of rest, Mallorca 6.8 and had to travel 549 km.

Away travel549 kmRest days8.7 · 6.8Matches / 14d1 · 1

Rayo Vallecano46%

Draw27%

Mallorca27%

Expected goals 1.48 – 1.07

Rayo Vallecano46%

Draw26%

Mallorca28%

Expected goals 1.55 – 1.15

Rayo Vallecano46%

Draw27%

Mallorca27%

Expected goals 1.48 – 1.07

Rayo Vallecano39%

Draw28%

Mallorca33%

Expected goals 1.32 – 1.20

Rayo Vallecano46%

Draw26%

Mallorca28%

Expected goals 1.55 – 1.15

Over 2.5 47% Both score 51% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Madrid)

No weather data yet

Referee · SpainJuan Martinez Munuera

Cards per match 4.5
Penalties per match 0.38
Matches 34

Team strength

Rayo Vallecano

Mallorca

50 L90 StrengthIn forecast 46

58 Current StrengthIn forecast 48

61 AttackIn forecast 50

60 DefenceIn forecast 59

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Rayo Vallecano

Attack—

Defense risk—

Mallorca

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Rayo Vallecano

Mallorca

0.78 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.11

1.17 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.44

1.19 xGVia Att/Def 0.94

1.25 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.57

-0.41 Goals minus xGContext +0.17

50% Scored inContext 78%

33% Clean sheetsContext 17%

12.94 ShotsContext 9.83

4.22 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.83

33% On target shareContext 39%

7.22 Shots in the boxContext 5.94

56% Box shareContext 60%

6% ConversionContext 11%

2.60 OffsidesContext 2.50

11.61 Shots allowedContext 13.61

4.06 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.41

3.44 BlocksContext 4.22

3.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.40

69% Save rateContext 73%

55% PossessionIn forecast 44%

433 PassesContext 369

361 Accurate passesContext 294

83% Pass accuracyContext 80%

6.76 Team ratingContext 6.80

12.89 FoulsContext 10.78

10.78 Fouls sufferedContext 12.44

2.56 Yellow cardsContext 2.11

0.06 Red cardsContext 0.06

This league season, per match · 18 and 18 games

0.80 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.30

1.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.30

1.04 xGVia Att/Def 1.10

0.93 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.43

-0.24 Goals minus xGContext +0.20

50% Scored inContext 80%

40% Clean sheetsContext 20%

14.40 ShotsContext 9.70

4.30 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.80

30% On target shareContext 39%

6.90 Shots in the boxContext 5.89

48% Box shareContext 59%

6% ConversionContext 13%

2.33 OffsidesContext 2.50

11.60 Shots allowedContext 12.90

3.40 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.11

3.00 BlocksContext 4.80

2.33 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.13

66% Save rateContext 71%

57% PossessionIn forecast 44%

433 PassesContext 370

363 Accurate passesContext 294

84% Pass accuracyContext 80%

6.77 Team ratingContext 6.82

14.40 FoulsContext 9.60

12.00 Fouls sufferedContext 12.50

3.10 Yellow cardsContext 2.00

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Rayo Vallecano

Rest8.7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Mallorca

Rest6.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel549 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Rayo Vallecano	Mallorca
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	8.7La Liga 2025-2026, 2 Jan	6.8La Liga 2025-2026, 4 Jan
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	549 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 3	1 / 1 / 2
Next matchdays after this one	7.2	6.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Rayo Vallecano Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

13A. Batalla(G)

3Pep Chavarría 32N. Mendy 24F. Lejeune 2A. Rațiu

4Pedro Díaz 23Óscar Valentín

18Álvaro García 7Isi Palazón 14Carlos Martín

19Jorge de Frutos

+1 more reported missing outside this XI

Mallorca Confirmed XI

4-4-2

1Leo Román(G)

22J. Mojica 4M. Kumbulla 24M. Valjent 23Pablo Maffeo

3Toni Lato 5Omar Mascarell 12Samú Costa 6Antonio Sánchez

7V. Muriqi 17J. Virgili

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Rayo Vallecano Absences are shown before kick-off

Mallorca Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Rayo Vallecano+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Mallorca+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Rayo Vallecano · Home 1.13points per game · 8 home games

W-D-L: 1-6-1
Scored: 0.63
Conceded: 0.63

Mallorca · Away 0.56points per game · 9 away games

W-D-L: 1-2-6
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 1.67

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 18 this season

Opponent	Rayo Vallecano	Mallorca
Getafe	D 1–1 H	W 1–0 H
Elche	L 0–4 A	W 3–1 H
Real Betis	D 0–0 H	L 0–3 A
Espanyol	L 0–1 A	L 2–3 A
Valencia	D 1–1 H	D 1–1 A
Oviedo	D 0–0 A	D 0–0 A
Real Madrid	D 0–0 H	L 1–2 A
Villarreal	L 0–4 A	L 1–2 A
Alaves	W 1–0 H	W 1–0 H
Levante	W 3–0 A	D 1–1 H
Real Sociedad	W 1–0 A	L 0–1 A
Sevilla	L 0–1 H	W 3–1 A
Atletico Madrid	L 2–3 A	D 1–1 H
Celta Vigo	D 1–1 H	D 1–1 H
Osasuna	L 0–2 A	D 2–2 H
Barcelona	D 1–1 H	L 0–3 H
Athletic Club	L 0–1 A	L 1–2 A
Girona	W 3–1 A	L 1–2 H
Points	19 of 54 · 1.06 per game	18 of 54 · 1.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings

1 Rayo Vallecano wins2 draws5 Mallorca wins

Goals per game0.88 – 1.63 Over 2.563% Both scored50% Clean sheets13% · 50%

24 May 2025Rayo Vallecano0–0Mallorca
20 Oct 2024Mallorca1–0Rayo Vallecano
11 Feb 2024Mallorca2–1Rayo Vallecano
30 Sep 2023Rayo Vallecano2–2Mallorca
4 Jun 2023Mallorca3–0Rayo Vallecano
27 Aug 2022Rayo Vallecano0–2Mallorca

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Rayo Vallecano	Mallorca	Forecast
Scored per game	0.78	1.11
Conceded per game	1.17	1.44
Match goals	1.94	2.56	2.55
Over 1.5	56%	78%
Over 2.5	28%	56%	47%
Over 3.5	22%	22%
Both teams scored	33%	67%	51%
Clean sheets	33%	17%
Failed to score	50%	22%
Games	18	18

	Rayo Vallecano	Mallorca	Forecast
Scored per game	0.60	1.30
Conceded per game	1.10	1.30
Match goals	1.70	2.60	2.55
Over 1.5	50%	80%
Over 2.5	30%	60%	47%
Over 3.5	20%	30%
Both teams scored	20%	70%	51%
Clean sheets	50%	20%
Failed to score	60%	20%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Rayo Vallecano	Mallorca	League
Corners
Corners won	5.83	3.24
Corners conceded	4.89	6.71
Match total	10.72	9.95	9.53
Over 8.5	78% 14/18	76% 13/17
Over 9.5	56% 10/18	41% 7/17
Over 10.5	50% 9/18	41% 7/17
Cards
Cards	2.72	2.28
Opponent cards	1.78	2.00
Match total	4.50	4.28	4.37
Over 3.5	67% 12/18	56% 10/18
Over 4.5	56% 10/18	33% 6/18

	Rayo Vallecano	Mallorca	League
Corners
Corners won	5.10	2.89
Corners conceded	4.70	7.22
Match total	9.80	10.11	9.53
Over 8.5	70% 7/10	78% 7/9
Over 9.5	50% 5/10	44% 4/9
Over 10.5	30% 3/10	44% 4/9
Cards
Cards	3.30	2.00
Opponent cards	2.40	1.70
Match total	5.70	3.70	4.37
Over 3.5	80% 8/10	40% 4/10
Over 4.5	80% 8/10	20% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Juan Martinez Munuera Spain · 34 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.26league 4.12

Red cards0.21league 0.27

Cards 5+41%league 46%

Fouls25.9league 24.5

Penalties0.38league 0.33

Home wins47%league 46%

Rayo Vallecano3 with this referee

Record0-2-1 Cards · opp.4.0 · 1.7 Pens for · against0 · 1

D9 Nov 25H · Real Madrid0–03
L25 Aug 25A · Athletic Club0–14
D5 Nov 23A · Real Madrid0–05

Mallorca2 with this referee

Record1-0-1 Cards · opp.3.0 · 1.0 Pens for · against0 · 0

W11 May 24H · Las Palmas1–06
L25 Nov 23A · Atletico Madrid0–10

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.