Rayo Vallecano
Attack—
Defense risk—
Rayo Vallecano
18th · 1 pts · 3 played
LDL
3–2Full time
Racing Santander
11th · 4 pts · 3 played
DLW
Our take
Rayo Vallecano were slight favourites.
Rayo Vallecano were the stronger side on L90 Strength (56 vs 45). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Racing Santander. Rayo Vallecano had 4.9 days of rest, Racing Santander 8 and had to travel 339 km. Weather to note: heat stress.
Away travel339 kmRest days4.9 · 8Matches / 14d1 · 2
Rayo Vallecano47%
Draw24%
Racing Santander29%
Rayo Vallecano51%
Draw25%
Racing Santander25%
Rayo Vallecano48%
Draw23%
Racing Santander29%
Rayo Vallecano40%
Draw24%
Racing Santander36%
Rayo Vallecano47%
Draw24%
Racing Santander29%
Over 2.5 58%
Both score 60%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Madrid)
Heat stress
34°COvercast
- Precipitation 0.0 mm
- Wind 11 km/h
- Humidity 20%
Referee · SpainAlejandro Quintero Gonzalez
- Cards per match 5.1
- Penalties per match 0.57
- Matches 23
Team strength
Rayo VallecanoRacing Santander
56
L90 StrengthIn forecast
45
58
Current StrengthIn forecast
41
61
AttackIn forecast
42
60
DefenceIn forecast
22
31
Form indexContext
49
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisRacing Santander
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Rayo VallecanoRacing Santander
1.33
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.67
2.67
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.67
1.17
xGVia Att/Def
1.63
2.41
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.98
+0.16
Goals minus xGContext
+0.04
100%
Scored inContext
67%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
8.33
ShotsContext
12.00
3.67
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.00
44%
On target shareContext
33%
5.67
Shots in the boxContext
8.00
70%
Box shareContext
69%
16%
ConversionContext
14%
2.00
OffsidesContext
2.00
18.00
Shots allowedContext
14.00
5.33
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.00
4.33
BlocksContext
3.33
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
5.00
56%
Save rateContext
71%
43%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
315
PassesContext
409
237
Accurate passesContext
332
75%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.56
Team ratingContext
6.76
14.33
FoulsContext
16.00
11.67
Fouls sufferedContext
15.67
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
2.33
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.30
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
1.16
xGVia Att/Def
1.72
1.69
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.16
+0.14
Goals minus xGContext
+0.58
90%
Scored inContext
80%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
11.80
ShotsContext
15.70
4.70
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
7.20
40%
On target shareContext
46%
7.22
Shots in the boxContext
10.80
59%
Box shareContext
69%
11%
ConversionContext
15%
1.89
OffsidesContext
2.38
14.00
Shots allowedContext
12.40
4.60
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.11
4.20
BlocksContext
3.40
3.40
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
74%
Save rateContext
67%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
378
PassesContext
431
301
Accurate passesContext
357
80%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.85
Team ratingContext
7.02
15.50
FoulsContext
14.60
10.30
Fouls sufferedContext
15.50
2.70
Yellow cardsContext
2.10
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Rayo Vallecano
LDL
Rest4.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km1,008 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 31 · 1 pts vs 3.3 for an average club · -2.3 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Rayo Vallecano |
Racing Santander |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 4.9La Liga 2026-2027, 31 Aug | 8La Liga 2026-2027, 28 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 339 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,008 km | 703 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 3 | 0 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.1 | 6.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Rayo Vallecano
Confirmed XI
1Dani Cárdenas(G)
17Adrià Pedrosa
6P. Ciss
24F. Lejeune
2A. Rațiu
4Pedro Díaz
23Óscar Valentín
8Unai López
18Álvaro García
10Sergio Camello
19Jorge de Frutos
Racing Santander
Confirmed XI
13Julen Agirrezabala(G)
17Jorge Salinas
16F. González
4Manu Hernando
2Álvaro Mantilla
18M. Prati
23Iván Martín
10Iñigo Vicente
20Sergio Canales
15Pablo García
21M. Zabiri
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Rayo Vallecano
Absences are shown before kick-off
Racing Santander
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Rayo Vallecano-0.6 pp
- Draw+0.2 pp
- Racing Santander+0.4 pp
Home / Away this season
Rayo Vallecano · Home
1.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-0
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Racing Santander · Away
0.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-1
- Scored
- 0.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Rayo Vallecano | Racing Santander | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.33 | 1.67 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.67 | 1.67 | |
| Match goals | 4.00 | 3.33 | 3.03 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 67% | |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 67% | 58% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 67% | |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 67% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 33% | |
| Games | 3 | 3 |
| Rayo Vallecano | Racing Santander | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.60 | 1.67 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.40 | 1.67 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 3.33 | 3.03 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 67% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 67% | 58% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 67% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 67% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 33% | |
| Games | 10 | 3 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Rayo Vallecano | Racing Santander | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.33 | 5.67 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.67 | 9.33 | |
| Match total | 11.00 | 15.00 | 10.71 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 2/3 | 100% 3/3 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 2/3 | 100% 3/3 | |
| Over 10.5 | 67% 2/3 | 100% 3/3 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 2.33 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.33 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 4.33 | 4.33 | 4.42 |
| Over 3.5 | 33% 1/3 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Over 4.5 | 33% 1/3 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Rayo Vallecano | Racing Santander | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.00 | 5.90 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.80 | 4.90 | |
| Match total | 9.80 | 10.80 | 10.71 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.70 | 2.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 2.60 | |
| Match total | 4.70 | 4.70 | 4.42 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Alejandro Quintero Gonzalez Spain · 23 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.70league 4.24
Red cards0.43league 0.18
Cards 5+57%league 45%
Fouls25.4league 25.1
Penalties0.57league 0.33
Home wins35%league 55%
Rayo Vallecano3 with this referee
Record0-3-0
Cards · opp.2.3 · 1.3
Pens for · against2 · 0
Reds1
- D14 May 26A · Valencia1–11
- D23 Nov 25A · Oviedo0–03
- D19 Apr 25H · Valencia1–13
Racing SantanderNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Rayo Vallecano3 games · scored 4 · conceded 8
2
0-15
2
16-30
31-45
2
2
46-60
1
61-75
3
76-90
Racing Santander3 games · scored 5 · conceded 5
1
0-15
2
16-30
2
2
31-45
46-60
61-75
3
76-90
Rayo Vallecano10 games · scored 13 · conceded 12
2
1
0-15
2
2
16-30
2
1
31-45
3
3
46-60
2
1
61-75
2
4
76-90
Racing Santander10 games · scored 23 · conceded 12
4
2
0-15
4
16-30
4
3
31-45
3
1
46-60
5
1
61-75
3
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
