Rayo Vallecano
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Rayo Vallecano
18th · 1 pts · 3 played
LDL
3–2Full time
Racing Santander
11th · 4 pts · 3 played
DLW
Rayo Vallecano46.8%fair odds 2.14
Draw24.7%fair odds 4.04
Racing Santander28.5%fair odds 3.51
Expected goals1.73 – 1.31total 3.03
Likeliest score1–111.4%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Racing Santander
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Rayo Vallecano ↓ · Racing Santander → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 5.7 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 11.4 | 7.1 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 9.4 | 6.1 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 5.4 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Rayo Vallecano goals, columns Racing Santander goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–111.4%8.74
- 2–19.4%10.66
- 1–07.7%12.92
- 2–07.2%13.92
- 1–27.1%14.09
- 2–26.1%16.32
- 0–15.7%17.49
- 3–15.4%18.52
- 0–05.4%18.54
- 3–04.1%24.19
Winning margin
11.0%
Rayo Vallecano by 3+
fair 9.07
14.4%
Rayo Vallecano by 2
fair 6.97
21.4%
Rayo Vallecano by 1
fair 4.67
24.7%
Draw
fair 4.04
16.0%
Racing Santander by 1
fair 6.23
8.2%
Racing Santander by 2
fair 12.17
4.2%
Racing Santander by 3+
fair 23.61
Goal distribution
Total goals
5%0
13%1
23%2
22%3
17%4
19%5+
Rayo Vallecano goals
18%0
31%1
27%2
15%3
10%4+
Racing Santander goals
27%0
35%1
23%2
10%3
4%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rayo Vallecano win | 46.8% | 46.9% | -0.1 pp |
| Draw | 24.7% | 24.7% | +0.1 pp |
| Racing Santander win | 28.5% | 28.5% | +0.0 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 58.4% | 58.7% | -0.3 pp |
| Both teams score | 60.5% | 60.7% | -0.2 pp |
| Expected goals Rayo Vallecano | 1.73 | 1.73 | -0.01 |
| Expected goals Racing Santander | 1.31 | 1.31 | -0.00 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Rayo Vallecano win46.8%2.14
- Draw24.7%4.04
- Racing Santander win28.5%3.51
- Double chance Rayo Vallecano or draw71.5%1.40
- Double chance Rayo Vallecano or Racing Santander75.3%1.33
- Double chance Racing Santander or draw53.2%1.88
- Draw no bet Rayo Vallecano62.1%1.61
- Draw no bet Racing Santander37.9%2.64
Goals
- Over 0.594.6%1.06
- Over 1.581.1%1.23
- Over 2.558.4%1.71
- Over 3.536.0%2.78
- Over 4.519.0%5.26
- Under 1.518.9%5.30
- Under 2.541.6%2.40
- Under 3.564.0%1.56
Both teams to score
- Yes60.5%1.65
- No39.5%2.53
- Yes and over 2.549.1%2.04
- Rayo Vallecano win and yes25.1%3.99
- Draw and yes19.3%5.17
- Racing Santander win and yes16.1%6.21
Team goals
- Rayo Vallecano over 0.582.2%1.22
- Rayo Vallecano over 1.551.5%1.94
- Rayo Vallecano over 2.525.0%4.00
- Racing Santander over 0.572.9%1.37
- Racing Santander over 1.537.5%2.66
- Racing Santander over 2.514.4%6.93
- Rayo Vallecano clean sheet27.1%3.69
- Racing Santander clean sheet17.8%5.62
- Rayo Vallecano win to nil21.7%4.61
- Racing Santander win to nil12.4%8.07
Handicap
- Rayo Vallecano −1.525.4%3.94
- Rayo Vallecano −2.511.0%9.07
- Racing Santander +1.574.6%1.34
- Racing Santander +2.589.0%1.12
- Racing Santander −1.512.5%8.03
- Rayo Vallecano +1.587.5%1.14
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record La Liga 2026-2027
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored33
Favourite won45.5%
Avg chance given to result41.7%
1X2 Brier0.571
Over 2.5 called right51.5%
BTTS called right54.5%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 7 | 38.7% | 28.6% |
| 40–50% | 13 | 45.0% | 23.1% |
| 50–60% | 8 | 54.8% | 62.5% |
| 60–70% | 1 | 62.3% | 100.0% |
| 70–80% | 2 | 76.1% | 100.0% |
| 80%+ | 2 | 82.8% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 14 of 33 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5701 | 0.5963 |
| Avg chance given to result | 41.9% | 41.0% |
| Favourite won | 42.9% | 50.0% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 14 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 33 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.