Rayo Vallecano
Attack—
Defense risk—
Rayo Vallecano
13th · 17 pts · 15 played
LDDDL
0–0Full time
Real Betis
6th · 24 pts · 15 played
WDDWL
Our take
It was too close to call.
Real Betis were the stronger side on L90 Strength (71 vs 53). Rayo Vallecano had 8.1 days of rest, Real Betis 4.1 and had to travel 390 km.
Away travel390 kmRest days8.1 · 4.1Matches / 14d2 · 2
Rayo Vallecano33%
Draw28%
Real Betis39%
Rayo Vallecano33%
Draw27%
Real Betis40%
Rayo Vallecano33%
Draw28%
Real Betis39%
Rayo Vallecano27%
Draw27%
Real Betis46%
Rayo Vallecano33%
Draw27%
Real Betis40%
Over 2.5 47%
Both score 53%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Madrid)
No weather data yet
Referee · SpainRicardo De Burgos Bengoetxea
- Cards per match 3.9
- Penalties per match 0.25
- Matches 40
Team strength
Rayo VallecanoReal Betis
53
L90 StrengthIn forecast
71
58
Current StrengthIn forecast
71
61
AttackIn forecast
79
60
DefenceIn forecast
59
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisReal Betis
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Rayo VallecanoReal Betis
0.87
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.67
1.07
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.27
1.20
xGVia Att/Def
1.46
1.25
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.01
-0.33
Goals minus xGContext
+0.21
53%
Scored inContext
93%
33%
Clean sheetsContext
27%
12.13
ShotsContext
14.73
3.93
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.73
32%
On target shareContext
32%
7.20
Shots in the boxContext
9.20
58%
Box shareContext
62%
7%
ConversionContext
11%
2.17
OffsidesContext
2.08
11.13
Shots allowedContext
11.13
3.87
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.80
3.60
BlocksContext
2.64
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.79
71%
Save rateContext
71%
54%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
435
PassesContext
472
366
Accurate passesContext
401
84%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.79
Team ratingContext
6.92
13.20
FoulsContext
10.47
10.80
Fouls sufferedContext
13.00
2.40
Yellow cardsContext
2.07
0.07
Red cardsContext
0.07
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.70
1.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.10
1.14
xGVia Att/Def
1.46
1.15
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.90
-0.14
Goals minus xGContext
+0.24
60%
Scored inContext
80%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
13.80
ShotsContext
13.70
3.70
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.20
27%
On target shareContext
38%
7.40
Shots in the boxContext
8.00
52%
Box shareContext
60%
7%
ConversionContext
12%
1.63
OffsidesContext
2.29
11.30
Shots allowedContext
10.10
3.30
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.30
3.70
BlocksContext
2.67
2.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.10
58%
Save rateContext
64%
56%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
433
PassesContext
484
367
Accurate passesContext
413
85%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.73
Team ratingContext
6.90
14.60
FoulsContext
11.40
10.60
Fouls sufferedContext
12.20
3.10
Yellow cardsContext
2.50
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Rayo Vallecano
Rest8.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km995 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Real Betis
Rest4.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel390 km4,085 km in 14d
Schedule load16%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Rayo Vallecano |
Real Betis |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 16 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 8.1La Liga 2025-2026, 7 Dec | 4.1UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 11 Dec |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 390 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 995 km | 4,085 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 5 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 5.9 | 6 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Rayo Vallecano
Confirmed XI
13A. Batalla(G)
3Pep Chavarría
32N. Mendy
24F. Lejeune
2A. Rațiu
23Óscar Valentín
6P. Ciss
22A. Espino
7Isi Palazón
19Jorge de Frutos
18Álvaro García
Real Betis
Confirmed XI
1Álvaro Vallés(G)
12R. Rodríguez
4Natan
3Diego Llorente
24Aitor Ruibal
21Marc Roca
18Nelson Alexander Deossa Suarez
17Rodrigo Riquelme
8Pablo Fornals
7Antony
19C. Hernández
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Rayo Vallecano
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Real Betis
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Rayo Vallecano+0.3 pp
- Draw+0.1 pp
- Real Betis-0.4 pp
Home / Away this season
Rayo Vallecano · Home
1.17points per game · 6 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-4-1
- Scored
- 0.67
- Conceded
- 0.67
Real Betis · Away
1.57points per game · 7 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-5-0
- Scored
- 1.57
- Conceded
- 1.14
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 13 this season
| Opponent | Rayo Vallecano | Real Betis |
|---|---|---|
| Espanyol | L 0–1 A | W 2–1 A |
| Valencia | D 1–1 H | D 1–1 A |
| Villarreal | L 0–4 A | D 2–2 A |
| Alaves | W 1–0 H | W 1–0 H |
| Levante | W 3–0 A | D 2–2 A |
| Real Sociedad | W 1–0 A | W 3–1 H |
| Sevilla | L 0–1 H | W 2–0 A |
| Atletico Madrid | L 2–3 A | L 0–2 H |
| Celta Vigo | D 1–1 H | D 1–1 A |
| Osasuna | L 0–2 A | W 2–0 H |
| Barcelona | D 1–1 H | L 3–5 H |
| Athletic Club | L 0–1 A | L 1–2 H |
| Girona | W 3–1 A | D 1–1 H |
| Points | 15 of 39 · 1.15 per game | 20 of 39 · 1.54 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings
1 Rayo Vallecano wins3 draws4 Real Betis wins
Goals per game1.25 – 1.63
Over 2.550%
Both scored75%
Clean sheets13% · 13%
- 15 May 2025Rayo Vallecano2–2Real Betis
- 22 Dec 2024Real Betis1–1Rayo Vallecano
- 17 Mar 2024Rayo Vallecano2–0Real Betis
- 2 Sep 2023Real Betis1–0Rayo Vallecano
- 15 May 2023Real Betis3–1Rayo Vallecano
- 8 Jan 2023Rayo Vallecano1–2Real Betis
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Rayo Vallecano | Real Betis | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.87 | 1.67 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.07 | 1.27 | |
| Match goals | 1.93 | 2.93 | 2.55 |
| Over 1.5 | 53% | 93% | |
| Over 2.5 | 27% | 47% | 47% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 27% | |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 67% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 27% | |
| Failed to score | 47% | 7% | |
| Games | 15 | 15 |
| Rayo Vallecano | Real Betis | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.80 | 1.70 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.10 | |
| Match goals | 1.80 | 2.80 | 2.55 |
| Over 1.5 | 40% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 30% | 40% | 47% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 20% | 50% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Rayo Vallecano | Real Betis | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.07 | 4.64 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.27 | 5.64 | |
| Match total | 11.34 | 10.28 | 9.57 |
| Over 8.5 | 80% 12/15 | 64% 9/14 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 10/15 | 57% 8/14 | |
| Over 10.5 | 60% 9/15 | 36% 5/14 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.60 | 2.13 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.67 | 2.60 | |
| Match total | 4.27 | 4.73 | 4.34 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 9/15 | 60% 9/15 | |
| Over 4.5 | 47% 7/15 | 53% 8/15 | |
| Rayo Vallecano | Real Betis | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.80 | 3.11 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.90 | 4.78 | |
| Match total | 11.70 | 7.89 | 9.57 |
| Over 8.5 | 80% 8/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 80% 8/10 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 60% 6/10 | 11% 1/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.30 | 2.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.50 | 2.30 | |
| Match total | 5.80 | 4.90 | 4.34 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 70% 7/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Ricardo De Burgos Bengoetxea Spain · 40 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.63league 4.08
Red cards0.23league 0.28
Cards 5+33%league 45%
Fouls22.1league 24.6
Penalties0.25league 0.32
Home wins50%league 48%
Rayo Vallecano2 with this referee
Record0-1-1
Cards · opp.3.5 · 2.5
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds1
- D24 May 25H · Mallorca0–02
- L26 Feb 24A · Girona0–35
Real Betis4 with this referee
Record2-2-0
Cards · opp.1.8 · 1.5
Pens for · against0 · 1
- W9 Feb 24A · Cadiz2–01
- D21 Dec 23H · Girona1–12
- W1 Oct 23H · Valencia3–02
- D20 Aug 23H · Atletico Madrid0–02
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Rayo Vallecano15 games · scored 13 · conceded 16
1
2
0-15
3
1
16-30
3
2
31-45
4
46-60
3
3
61-75
3
4
76-90
Real Betis15 games · scored 25 · conceded 19
3
7
0-15
3
1
16-30
5
4
31-45
3
3
46-60
6
1
61-75
5
3
76-90
Rayo Vallecano10 games · scored 10 · conceded 13
2
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
1
4
31-45
1
5
46-60
1
2
61-75
4
76-90
Real Betis10 games · scored 17 · conceded 11
2
3
0-15
1
1
16-30
7
3
31-45
2
2
46-60
3
61-75
2
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
