Rayo Vallecano
Attack—
Defense risk—
Rayo Vallecano
9th · 44 pts · 36 played
WDWDD
2–0Full time
Villarreal
3rd · 69 pts · 36 played
DWWDL
Our take
Rayo Vallecano were slight favourites.
Villarreal were the stronger side on L90 Strength (68 vs 56). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Rayo Vallecano. Rayo Vallecano had 3 days of rest, Villarreal 4 and had to travel 311 km.
Away travel311 kmRest days3 · 4Matches / 14d2 · 2
Rayo Vallecano42%
Draw27%
Villarreal31%
Rayo Vallecano36%
Draw27%
Villarreal37%
Rayo Vallecano42%
Draw27%
Villarreal31%
Rayo Vallecano34%
Draw27%
Villarreal38%
Rayo Vallecano42%
Draw26%
Villarreal32%
Over 2.5 50%
Both score 55%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Madrid)
No weather data yet
Referee · SpainRicardo De Burgos Bengoetxea
- Cards per match 3.9
- Penalties per match 0.33
- Matches 52
Team strength
Rayo VallecanoVillarreal
56
L90 StrengthIn forecast
68
58
Current StrengthIn forecast
65
61
AttackIn forecast
76
60
DefenceIn forecast
73
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisVillarreal
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Rayo VallecanoVillarreal
1.03
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.86
1.19
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.19
1.28
xGVia Att/Def
1.48
1.25
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.13
-0.25
Goals minus xGContext
+0.38
67%
Scored inContext
86%
31%
Clean sheetsContext
22%
13.28
ShotsContext
11.69
4.47
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.57
34%
On target shareContext
38%
7.60
Shots in the boxContext
8.17
56%
Box shareContext
69%
8%
ConversionContext
16%
2.47
OffsidesContext
2.62
11.75
Shots allowedContext
12.19
4.03
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.91
3.60
BlocksContext
4.09
2.82
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.79
68%
Save rateContext
70%
53%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
410
PassesContext
400
337
Accurate passesContext
332
82%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.78
Team ratingContext
6.90
12.92
FoulsContext
11.75
11.08
Fouls sufferedContext
11.78
2.56
Yellow cardsContext
2.17
0.11
Red cardsContext
0.06
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.90
1.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
1.52
xGVia Att/Def
1.45
1.41
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.08
-0.12
Goals minus xGContext
+0.45
90%
Scored inContext
90%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
14.90
ShotsContext
11.90
5.20
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.33
35%
On target shareContext
40%
9.11
Shots in the boxContext
8.70
59%
Box shareContext
72%
9%
ConversionContext
16%
2.67
OffsidesContext
1.63
11.70
Shots allowedContext
12.40
4.44
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.33
3.33
BlocksContext
4.10
2.89
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.44
65%
Save rateContext
80%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
364
PassesContext
419
292
Accurate passesContext
352
80%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.82
Team ratingContext
6.96
15.10
FoulsContext
10.80
11.20
Fouls sufferedContext
12.20
2.90
Yellow cardsContext
1.60
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Rayo Vallecano
Rest3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km604 km in 14d
Schedule load8%Low
Villarreal
Rest4 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel311 km477 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Rayo Vallecano |
Villarreal |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 8 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 3La Liga 2025-2026, 14 May | 4La Liga 2025-2026, 13 May |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 311 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 604 km | 477 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 2 / 2 / 5 | 1 / 2 / 5 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.1 | 7.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Rayo Vallecano
Confirmed XI
13A. Batalla(G)
3Pep Chavarría
24F. Lejeune
6P. Ciss
2A. Rațiu
23Óscar Valentín
17Unai López
10Sergio Camello
8Ó. Trejo
19Jorge de Frutos
9Alemão
Villarreal
Confirmed XI
25Arnau Tenas(G)
23Sergi Cardona
4Rafa Marín
5W. Kambwala
15S. Mouriño
20Alberto Moleiro
18P. Gueye
14Santi Comesaña
17T. Buchanan
21T. Oluwaseyi
22Ayoze Pérez
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Rayo Vallecano
Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Villarreal
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Rayo Vallecano-0.6 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Villarreal+0.6 pp
Home / Away this season
Rayo Vallecano · Home
1.56points per game · 18 home games
- W-D-L
- 6-10-2
- Scored
- 1.22
- Conceded
- 0.83
Villarreal · Away
1.44points per game · 18 away games
- W-D-L
- 7-5-6
- Scored
- 1.33
- Conceded
- 1.39
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Rayo Vallecano | Villarreal |
|---|---|---|
| Valencia | D 1–1 AD 1–1 H | W 2–1 HW 2–0 A |
| Girona | D 1–1 HW 3–1 A | L 0–1 AW 5–0 H |
| Getafe | W 2–0 AD 1–1 H | L 1–2 AW 2–0 H |
| Real Sociedad | D 3–3 HW 1–0 A | W 3–1 HW 3–2 A |
| Espanyol | W 1–0 HL 0–1 A | W 4–1 HW 2–0 A |
| Mallorca | L 0–3 AW 2–1 H | D 1–1 AW 2–1 H |
| Elche | W 1–0 HL 0–4 A | W 2–1 HW 3–1 A |
| Barcelona | L 0–1 AD 1–1 H | L 1–4 AL 0–2 H |
| Levante | D 1–1 HW 3–0 A | W 5–1 HW 1–0 A |
| Sevilla | D 1–1 AL 0–1 H | L 2–3 HW 2–1 A |
| Oviedo | W 3–0 HD 0–0 A | D 1–1 AW 2–0 H |
| Athletic Club | D 1–1 HL 0–1 A | W 2–1 AW 1–0 H |
| Real Betis | D 1–1 AD 0–0 H | L 0–2 AD 2–2 H |
| Atletico Madrid | W 3–0 HL 2–3 A | L 0–2 A |
| Real Madrid | L 1–2 AD 0–0 H | L 0–2 HL 1–3 A |
| Osasuna | L 1–3 HL 0–2 A | D 2–2 AW 2–1 H |
| Celta Vigo | L 0–3 AD 1–1 H | W 2–1 HD 1–1 A |
| Alaves | W 1–0 H | D 1–1 AW 3–1 H |
| Points | 44 of 105 · 1.26 per game | 66 of 105 · 1.89 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings
2 Rayo Vallecano wins2 draws5 Villarreal wins
Goals per game0.67 – 2.00
Over 2.544%
Both scored44%
Clean sheets11% · 44%
- 1 Nov 2025Villarreal4–0Rayo Vallecano
- 22 Feb 2025Rayo Vallecano0–1Villarreal
- 18 Dec 2024Villarreal1–1Rayo Vallecano
- 28 Apr 2024Villarreal3–0Rayo Vallecano
- 24 Sep 2023Rayo Vallecano1–1Villarreal
- 28 May 2023Rayo Vallecano2–1Villarreal
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Rayo Vallecano | Villarreal | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.03 | 1.86 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.19 | 1.19 | |
| Match goals | 2.22 | 3.06 | 2.68 |
| Over 1.5 | 69% | 92% | |
| Over 2.5 | 36% | 58% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | 17% | 36% | |
| Both teams scored | 44% | 64% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 31% | 22% | |
| Failed to score | 33% | 14% | |
| Games | 36 | 36 |
| Rayo Vallecano | Villarreal | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.10 | 1.90 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.10 | 1.20 | |
| Match goals | 2.20 | 3.10 | 2.68 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 20% | 60% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | 10% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 90% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Rayo Vallecano | Villarreal | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.75 | 4.06 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.92 | 4.88 | |
| Match total | 10.67 | 8.94 | 9.58 |
| Over 8.5 | 75% 27/36 | 53% 17/32 | |
| Over 9.5 | 61% 22/36 | 38% 12/32 | |
| Over 10.5 | 56% 20/36 | 31% 10/32 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.81 | 2.25 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.28 | 2.11 | |
| Match total | 5.09 | 4.36 | 4.55 |
| Over 3.5 | 75% 27/36 | 61% 22/36 | |
| Over 4.5 | 58% 21/36 | 44% 16/36 | |
| Rayo Vallecano | Villarreal | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.30 | 4.44 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.80 | 5.78 | |
| Match total | 9.10 | 10.22 | 9.58 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 89% 8/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.00 | 1.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.50 | 2.10 | |
| Match total | 5.50 | 3.70 | 4.55 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 80% 8/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Ricardo De Burgos Bengoetxea Spain · 52 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.62league 4.29
Red cards0.23league 0.27
Cards 5+31%league 47%
Fouls22.0league 24.5
Penalties0.33league 0.36
Home wins50%league 48%
Rayo Vallecano4 with this referee
Record1-2-1
Cards · opp.3.0 · 2.3
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds1
- W15 Feb 26H · Atletico Madrid3–01
- D15 Dec 25H · Real Betis0–04
- D24 May 25H · Mallorca0–02
- L26 Feb 24A · Girona0–35
Villarreal4 with this referee
Record2-2-0
Cards · opp.1.0 · 1.0
Pens for · against2 · 0
- D23 Apr 26A · Oviedo1–11
- D31 Jan 26A · Osasuna2–22
- W14 May 25H · Leganes3–01
- W26 Nov 23H · Osasuna3–10
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Rayo Vallecano36 games · scored 37 · conceded 43
2
5
0-15
5
6
16-30
11
7
31-45
4
6
46-60
6
7
61-75
9
12
76-90
Villarreal36 games · scored 67 · conceded 43
9
3
0-15
11
4
16-30
15
9
31-45
12
8
46-60
10
8
61-75
10
11
76-90
Rayo Vallecano10 games · scored 14 · conceded 11
1
1
0-15
2
1
16-30
3
4
31-45
2
1
46-60
2
2
61-75
4
2
76-90
Villarreal10 games · scored 19 · conceded 12
5
0-15
4
16-30
5
5
31-45
2
46-60
2
3
61-75
3
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
