RB Leipzig
Attack—
Defense risk—
RB Leipzig
2nd · 26 pts · 12 played
WWLWD
6–0Full time
Eintracht Frankfurt
7th · 21 pts · 12 played
WDWWD
Our take
RB Leipzig were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. RB Leipzig had 7.9 days of rest, Eintracht Frankfurt 6 and had to travel 293 km.
Away travel293 kmRest days7.9 · 6Matches / 14d2 · 2
RB Leipzig48%
Draw25%
Eintracht Frankfurt27%
RB Leipzig48%
Draw26%
Eintracht Frankfurt26%
RB Leipzig49%
Draw25%
Eintracht Frankfurt26%
RB Leipzig40%
Draw26%
Eintracht Frankfurt34%
RB Leipzig47%
Draw26%
Eintracht Frankfurt27%
Over 2.5 56%
Both score 58%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Leipzig)
No weather data yet
Referee · GermanyDaniel Siebert
- Cards per match 4.7
- Penalties per match 0.26
- Matches 109
Team strength
RB LeipzigEintracht Frankfurt
70
L90 StrengthIn forecast
64
67
Current StrengthIn forecast
48
76
AttackIn forecast
54
53
DefenceIn forecast
37
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisEintracht Frankfurt
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
RB LeipzigEintracht Frankfurt
1.83
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.33
1.08
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.92
1.76
xGVia Att/Def
1.40
1.16
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.13
+0.07
Goals minus xGContext
+0.93
83%
Scored inContext
92%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
17%
16.08
ShotsContext
13.08
5.58
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.75
35%
On target shareContext
36%
10.67
Shots in the boxContext
8.42
66%
Box shareContext
64%
11%
ConversionContext
18%
2.38
OffsidesContext
1.78
13.17
Shots allowedContext
10.83
3.42
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.64
4.33
BlocksContext
2.00
2.78
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.70
71%
Save rateContext
56%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
56%
464
PassesContext
508
392
Accurate passesContext
427
85%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
7.01
Team ratingContext
6.88
9.33
FoulsContext
8.75
10.42
Fouls sufferedContext
10.00
1.67
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
2.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.20
0.70
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.80
1.85
xGVia Att/Def
0.91
1.15
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.47
+0.15
Goals minus xGContext
+0.29
90%
Scored inContext
70%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
16.40
ShotsContext
9.70
6.10
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.30
37%
On target shareContext
34%
10.60
Shots in the boxContext
6.20
65%
Box shareContext
65%
12%
ConversionContext
12%
2.57
OffsidesContext
2.00
13.40
Shots allowedContext
11.40
2.80
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.44
4.60
BlocksContext
2.90
2.57
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.88
82%
Save rateContext
62%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
466
PassesContext
477
394
Accurate passesContext
396
84%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
7.05
Team ratingContext
6.75
9.20
FoulsContext
7.90
9.90
Fouls sufferedContext
8.60
1.70
Yellow cardsContext
0.90
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
RB Leipzig
Rest7.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km826 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Eintracht Frankfurt
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel293 km305 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| RB Leipzig |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.9Bundesliga 2025-2026, 28 Nov | 6Bundesliga 2025-2026, 30 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 293 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 826 km | 305 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 2 / 2 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.1 | 6.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
RB Leipzig
Confirmed XI
1P. Gulácsi(G)
22D. Raum
23C. Lukeba
4V. Orbán
19K. Nedeljković
24X. Schlager
13N. Seiwald
14C. Baumgartner
7A. Nusa
11C. Harder
49Y. Diomande
Eintracht Frankfurt
Confirmed XI
23M. Zetterer(G)
3A. Theate
4R. Koch
34P. Collins
21N. Brown
18M. Dahoud
8F. Chaïbi
13R. Kristensen
19J. Bahoya
20R. Doan
30M. Batshuayi
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences RB Leipzig
Scores -0.05 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Eintracht Frankfurt
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- RB Leipzig-0.9 pp
- Draw+0.3 pp
- Eintracht Frankfurt+0.6 pp
Home / Away this season
RB Leipzig · Home
3.00points per game · 5 home games
- W-D-L
- 5-0-0
- Scored
- 2.40
- Conceded
- 0.60
Eintracht Frankfurt · Away
1.83points per game · 6 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-2-1
- Scored
- 2.83
- Conceded
- 2.33
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 8 this season
| Opponent | RB Leipzig | Eintracht Frankfurt |
|---|---|---|
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | D 0–0 A | W 6–4 A |
| Werder Bremen | W 2–0 H | W 4–1 H |
| 1899 Hoffenheim | L 1–3 A | W 3–1 A |
| VfL Wolfsburg | W 1–0 A | D 1–1 H |
| 1.FC Köln | W 3–1 H | W 4–3 A |
| FSV Mainz 05 | W 1–0 A | W 1–0 H |
| 1. FC Heidenheim | W 2–0 H | D 1–1 A |
| Bayern München | L 0–6 A | L 0–3 H |
| Points | 16 of 24 · 2.00 per game | 17 of 24 · 2.13 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings
2 RB Leipzig wins3 draws3 Eintracht Frankfurt wins
Goals per game0.88 – 1.75
Over 2.563%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets13% · 50%
- 26 Apr 2025Eintracht Frankfurt4–0RB Leipzig
- 15 Dec 2024RB Leipzig2–1Eintracht Frankfurt
- 18 May 2024Eintracht Frankfurt2–2RB Leipzig
- 13 Jan 2024RB Leipzig0–1Eintracht Frankfurt
- 25 Feb 2023RB Leipzig2–1Eintracht Frankfurt
- 3 Sep 2022Eintracht Frankfurt4–0RB Leipzig
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| RB Leipzig | Eintracht Frankfurt | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.83 | 2.33 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.08 | 1.92 | |
| Match goals | 2.92 | 4.25 | 2.91 |
| Over 1.5 | 75% | 92% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 67% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 42% | 58% | |
| Both teams scored | 42% | 75% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 17% | |
| Failed to score | 17% | 8% | |
| Games | 12 | 12 |
| RB Leipzig | Eintracht Frankfurt | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.00 | 2.10 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.70 | 2.10 | |
| Match goals | 2.70 | 4.20 | 2.91 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 60% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 70% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| RB Leipzig | Eintracht Frankfurt | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.08 | 5.18 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.75 | 2.73 | |
| Match total | 10.83 | 7.91 | 9.79 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 8/12 | 45% 5/11 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 8/12 | 36% 4/11 | |
| Over 10.5 | 42% 5/12 | 18% 2/11 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.67 | 1.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.08 | 2.25 | |
| Match total | 3.75 | 3.75 | 4.12 |
| Over 3.5 | 58% 7/12 | 50% 6/12 | |
| Over 4.5 | 25% 3/12 | 33% 4/12 | |
| RB Leipzig | Eintracht Frankfurt | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.40 | 4.30 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.90 | 3.70 | |
| Match total | 11.30 | 8.00 | 9.79 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 70% 7/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 5/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.70 | 0.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.60 | 1.60 | |
| Match total | 3.30 | 2.50 | 4.12 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 10% 1/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Daniel Siebert Germany · 109 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.50league 3.96
Red cards0.23league 0.21
Cards 5+50%league 42%
Fouls23.5league 21.4
Penalties0.26league 0.33
Home wins41%league 45%
RB Leipzig12 with this referee
Record5-3-4
Cards · opp.2.1 · 1.8
Pens for · against1 · 1
- W25 Oct 25A · FC Augsburg6–01
- L17 May 25H · VfB Stuttgart2–31
- L1 Mar 25H · FSV Mainz 051–21
- L20 Dec 24A · Bayern München1–52
- W28 Sep 24H · FC Augsburg4–01
Eintracht Frankfurt7 with this referee
Record3-1-3
Cards · opp.1.4 · 2.6
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L4 Oct 25H · Bayern München0–31
- L5 Apr 25A · Werder Bremen0–23
- D20 Jan 24A · SV Darmstadt 982–21
- L12 Feb 23A · 1.FC Köln0–32
- W22 Oct 22A · Borussia Mönchengladbach3–12
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
RB Leipzig12 games · scored 22 · conceded 13
5
0-15
2
4
16-30
6
3
31-45
4
1
46-60
2
3
61-75
3
2
76-90
Eintracht Frankfurt12 games · scored 28 · conceded 23
2
5
0-15
5
1
16-30
8
3
31-45
7
3
46-60
2
2
61-75
4
9
76-90
RB Leipzig10 games · scored 20 · conceded 7
5
0-15
2
3
16-30
6
1
31-45
3
1
46-60
2
1
61-75
2
1
76-90
Eintracht Frankfurt10 games · scored 12 · conceded 18
3
0-15
2
1
16-30
4
4
31-45
3
1
46-60
1
5
61-75
2
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
