Bundesliga Gameweek 33 Sat, May 9 2026 · 14:30 Red Bull Arena, Leipzig
RB Leipzig
2–1 Full time · HT 1–0 xG 1.35 – 0.70
FC St. Pauli
  • X. Schlager 45’
  • V. Orbán 55’
  • 86’ A. Ceesay
Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Match story · our forecast vs the result iModel is our forecast, published before the match and locked at kick-off: expected goals for each side and the probability of every outcome.

xG after the match measures the quality of the chances each side actually created. It is known only after the final whistle, so it is not a forecast.

RB Leipzig beat FC St. Pauli

RB Leipzig entered as clear favourites and won 2–1 through goals from Schlager and Orbán. FC St. Pauli replied through a Ceesay goal. RB Leipzig finished with the higher xG (1.35 vs 0.70). On the chances created, FC St. Pauli deserved more: 0.9 expected points against the 0 points they took.

RB Leipzig ✓80%
Draw12%
FC St. Pauli8%

Model vs reality

RB Leipzig goals
2
Model 3.14 · xG 1.35
FC St. Pauli goals
1
Model 0.95 · xG 0.70
Total goals
3
Model 4.09 · xG 2.05
Score 2–1
8%
Most likely 3–0 (9%)
Over 2.5
Yes
Model 77%
Both scored
Yes
Model 59%
Match facts
★ Player of the matchV. OrbánRB Leipzig · 1 goal
9.0
  • RefereeBenjamin Brand
  • Coaches— · A. Blessin
  • VenueRed Bull Arena
  • Table before kick-offRB Leipzig 3rd · FC St. Pauli 17th

Timeline

  1. C. LukebaYellow card · Tripping
    20’
  2. X. Schlager 1–0Assist C. Baumgartner
    45’
  3. Half time · 1–0
  4. C. BaumgartnerYellow card · Roughing
    51’
  5. V. Orbán 2–0Assist D. Raum
    55’
  6. ⇄ H. WahlFor L. Ritzka
    64’
  7. ⇄ F. StevensFor Louis Oppie
    64’
  8. ⇄ N. SeiwaldFor F. Ouédraogo
    69’
  9. ⇄ M. FinkgräfeFor D. Raum
    69’
  10. ⇄ A. CeesayFor A. Hountondji
    72’
  11. ⇄ A. NusaFor B. Gruda
    80’
  12. A. Ceesay 2–1Assist J. Irvine
    86’
  13. ⇄ M. RasmussenFor E. Smith
    89’
  14. ⇄ D. SinaniFor C. Metcalfe
    89’
  15. ⇄ B. HenrichsFor R. Baku
    90+2’
  16. Full time · 2–1

Team stats

RB Leipzig12 shots · 8 in box, 4 outside
FC St. Pauli6 shots · 3 in box, 3 outside
RB LeipzigFC St. Pauli
72% Possession 28%
1.35 Expected goals (xG) 0.70
1.85 Expected points (xPts) 0.86
12 Shots 6
4 Shots on target 2
6 Shots off target 2
2 Blocked shots 2
8 Shots inside the box 3
4 Shots outside the box 3
723 Passes 279
89% Pass accuracy 71%
3 Corners 5
1 Goalkeeper saves 2
5 Fouls 9
2 Offsides 0
2 Yellow cards 0
0 Red cards 0
7.15 Team rating 6.61

Line-ups

RB Leipzig 4-3-3

266.5 M. Vandevoordt(G)
227.5 D. Raum A↓69’ 237.2 C. Lukeba 49.0★ V. Orbán 176.9 R. Baku ↓90’
146.7 C. Baumgartner A 247.9 X. Schlager 206.7 F. Ouédraogo ↓69’
497.2 Y. Diomande 406.5 Rômulo 107.0 B. Gruda ↓80’
  • 26M. Vandevoordt (G)6.5
  • 22D. RaumA↓69’7.5
  • 23C. Lukeba7.2
  • 4V. Orbán ★9.0
  • 17R. Baku↓90’6.9
  • 14C. BaumgartnerA6.7
  • 24X. Schlager7.9
  • 20F. Ouédraogo↓69’6.7
  • 49Y. Diomande7.2
  • 40Rômulo6.5
  • 10B. Gruda↓80’7.0

Substitutes used

  • 35M. Finkgräfe↑69’6.2
  • 39B. Henrichs↑90’
  • 13N. Seiwald↑69’6.5
  • 7A. Nusa↑80’6.3

Unused: P. Gulácsi, E. Bitshiabu, L. Klostermann, S. Bakayoko, C. Harder

FC St. Pauli 3-5-2

227.0 N. Vasilj(G)
216.3 L. Ritzka ↓64’ 86.2 E. Smith ↓89’ 156.9 Tomoya Ando
236.5 Louis Oppie ↓64’ 167.0 J. Fujita 76.9 J. Irvine A 246.2 C. Metcalfe ↓89’ 116.6 Arkadiusz Pyrka
196.3 M. Kaars 276.3 A. Hountondji ↓72’
  • 22N. Vasilj (G)7.0
  • 21L. Ritzka↓64’6.3
  • 8E. Smith↓89’6.2
  • 15Tomoya Ando6.9
  • 23Louis Oppie↓64’6.5
  • 16J. Fujita7.0
  • 7J. IrvineA6.9
  • 24C. Metcalfe↓89’6.2
  • 11Arkadiusz Pyrka6.6
  • 19M. Kaars6.3
  • 27A. Hountondji↓72’6.3

Substitutes used

  • 5H. Wahl↑64’6.9
  • 14F. Stevens↑64’6.9
  • 20M. Rasmussen↑89’
  • 9A. Ceesay↑72’7.3
  • 10D. Sinani↑89’

Unused: B. Voll, T. Hara

Coach: A. Blessin

Player stats

Top rated
V. OrbánRB Leipzig9.0
2nd
X. SchlagerRB Leipzig7.9
3rd
D. RaumRB Leipzig7.5

RB Leipzig

PlayerMinGAShotsKPPassTklIntDrbFoulsRating
M. Vandevoordt G 90 0 0 2 sv 0 77% 35 0 0 0/0 0/0 6.5
D. Raum D 69 0 1 0 (0) 3 95% 63 0 0 0/1 0/0 7.5
C. Lukeba D 90 0 0 0 (0) 0 94% 124 3 1 1/1 1/1 7.2
V. Orbán D 90 1 0 1 (1) 0 97% 146 1 1 0/0 0/0 9.0
R. Baku M 90 0 0 0 (0) 0 84% 83 2 1 0/0 0/2 6.9
C. Baumgartner M 90 0 1 3 (1) 1 80% 60 2 1 0/1 1/0 6.7
X. Schlager M 90 1 0 1 (1) 0 88% 65 2 0 2/2 1/2 7.9
F. Ouédraogo M 69 0 0 1 (0) 2 90% 21 0 0 1/2 0/1 6.7
Y. Diomande F 90 0 0 0 (0) 1 76% 34 1 1 4/6 0/1 7.2
Rômulo F 90 0 0 1 (0) 1 92% 13 2 0 0/1 0/0 6.5
B. Gruda M 80 0 0 2 (0) 1 72% 32 0 0 3/7 2/0 7.0
M. Finkgräfe D 21 0 0 0 (0) 1 92% 25 0 1 0/0 0/1 6.2
B. Henrichs D 1 0 0 0 (0) 0 — 0 0 0 0/0 0/0 —
N. Seiwald M 21 0 0 0 (0) 0 84% 25 0 0 0/0 0/0 6.5
A. Nusa M 10 0 0 2 (2) 0 100% 3 0 0 0/1 0/0 6.3

FC St. Pauli

PlayerMinGAShotsKPPassTklIntDrbFoulsRating
N. Vasilj G 90 0 0 3 sv 0 55% 31 0 0 0/0 0/0 7.0
L. Ritzka D 64 0 0 0 (0) 0 80% 20 2 1 0/0 0/0 6.3
E. Smith M 89 0 0 1 (0) 0 71% 28 1 3 0/0 0/0 6.2
Tomoya Ando 90 0 0 0 (0) 0 82% 38 2 1 2/2 1/2 6.9
Louis Oppie D 64 0 0 1 (1) 0 69% 16 1 2 0/0 1/1 6.5
J. Fujita M 90 0 0 0 (0) 0 83% 30 8 2 2/2 2/1 7.0
J. Irvine M 90 0 1 1 (1) 1 70% 20 7 0 0/0 2/0 6.9
C. Metcalfe M 89 0 0 0 (0) 1 67% 21 0 1 0/0 0/0 6.2
Arkadiusz Pyrka M 90 0 0 0 (0) 0 67% 21 1 0 0/0 2/0 6.6
M. Kaars F 90 0 0 1 (0) 1 67% 24 0 0 0/0 0/0 6.3
A. Hountondji F 72 0 0 0 (0) 2 73% 15 1 0 0/1 0/1 6.3
H. Wahl D 26 0 0 0 (0) 0 70% 10 1 0 0/0 0/0 6.9
F. Stevens D 26 0 0 0 (0) 0 50% 14 1 0 0/0 0/0 6.9
M. Rasmussen M 1 0 0 0 (0) 0 75% 4 0 0 0/0 0/0 —
A. Ceesay F 18 1 0 1 (1) 1 100% 5 0 0 1/1 1/0 7.3
D. Sinani M 1 0 0 0 (0) 0 67% 3 0 0 0/0 0/0 —

Match data from eScored. Ratings are the data provider's 0–10 match ratings; 7.2 and above is a strong game, 8+ is rare.