RB Leipzig
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
RB Leipzig were clear favourites.
RB Leipzig were the stronger side on L90 Strength (71 vs 26). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for RB Leipzig. RB Leipzig had 6.9 days of rest, FC St. Pauli 6 and had to travel 294 km.
Away travel294 kmRest days6.9 · 6Matches / 14d1 · 2
RB Leipzig80%
Draw12%
FC St. Pauli8%
RB Leipzig72%
Draw18%
FC St. Pauli10%
RB Leipzig79%
Draw13%
FC St. Pauli8%
RB Leipzig73%
Draw16%
FC St. Pauli11%
RB Leipzig78%
Draw14%
FC St. Pauli8%
Over 2.5 77%
Both score 59%
Likeliest score 3–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Leipzig)
No weather data yet
Referee · GermanyBenjamin Brand
- Cards per match 4.2
- Penalties per match 0.34
- Matches 61
Team strength
RB Leipzig
FC St. Pauli
71
L90 StrengthIn forecast
26
67
Current StrengthIn forecast
24
76
AttackIn forecast
20
53
DefenceIn forecast
23
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisFC St. Pauli
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
RB LeipzigFC St. Pauli
1.97
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.84
1.31
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.72
1.91
xGVia Att/Def
0.82
1.41
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.49
+0.06
Goals minus xGContext
+0.02
91%
Scored inContext
59%
34%
Clean sheetsContext
16%
15.41
ShotsContext
9.91
5.91
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.35
38%
On target shareContext
33%
11.13
Shots in the boxContext
5.84
72%
Box shareContext
57%
13%
ConversionContext
9%
2.21
OffsidesContext
2.52
11.72
Shots allowedContext
11.78
3.81
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.03
3.50
BlocksContext
3.59
2.71
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.53
66%
Save rateContext
68%
54%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
486
PassesContext
421
412
Accurate passesContext
331
85%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
7.04
Team ratingContext
6.71
9.28
FoulsContext
9.31
9.94
Fouls sufferedContext
9.16
1.53
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.03
2.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.70
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.60
2.07
xGVia Att/Def
0.72
1.50
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.73
+0.03
Goals minus xGContext
-0.02
90%
Scored inContext
60%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
14.80
ShotsContext
9.20
6.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.00
43%
On target shareContext
33%
11.10
Shots in the boxContext
5.78
74%
Box shareContext
59%
14%
ConversionContext
8%
2.20
OffsidesContext
2.44
11.70
Shots allowedContext
13.60
3.90
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.20
3.33
BlocksContext
4.00
2.89
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.00
68%
Save rateContext
71%
53%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
449
PassesContext
400
376
Accurate passesContext
308
84%
Pass accuracyContext
77%
7.07
Team ratingContext
6.69
10.10
FoulsContext
7.90
9.60
Fouls sufferedContext
7.60
1.80
Yellow cardsContext
1.90
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
RB Leipzig
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km754 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
FC St. Pauli
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel294 km1,084 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| RB Leipzig |
FC St. Pauli |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.9Bundesliga 2025-2026, 2 May | 6Bundesliga 2025-2026, 3 May |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 294 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 754 km | 1,084 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
RB Leipzig
Confirmed XI
26M. Vandevoordt(G)
22D. Raum
23C. Lukeba
4V. Orbán
17R. Baku
14C. Baumgartner
24X. Schlager
20F. Ouédraogo
49Y. Diomande
40Rômulo
10B. Gruda
FC St. Pauli
Confirmed XI
22N. Vasilj(G)
21L. Ritzka
8E. Smith
15Tomoya Ando
23Louis Oppie
16J. Fujita
7J. Irvine
24C. Metcalfe
11Arkadiusz Pyrka
19M. Kaars
27A. Hountondji
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences RB Leipzig
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
FC St. Pauli
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.12 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- RB Leipzig+0.9 pp
- Draw-0.6 pp
- FC St. Pauli-0.3 pp
Home / Away this season
RB Leipzig · Home
2.19points per game · 16 home games
- W-D-L
- 11-2-3
- Scored
- 2.38
- Conceded
- 1.19
FC St. Pauli · Away
0.56points per game · 16 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-3-11
- Scored
- 0.69
- Conceded
- 1.69
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | RB Leipzig | FC St. Pauli |
|---|---|---|
| Bayer Leverkusen | L 1–4 AL 1–3 H | L 0–4 AL 1–2 H |
| Union Berlin | W 3–1 HL 1–3 A | D 1–1 AL 0–1 H |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | W 3–1 AW 6–0 H | D 0–0 HL 0–2 A |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | W 1–0 HD 0–0 A | L 0–2 AL 0–4 H |
| Werder Bremen | W 2–1 AW 2–0 H | W 2–1 HL 0–1 A |
| 1899 Hoffenheim | W 5–0 HL 1–3 A | W 1–0 AL 0–3 H |
| VfB Stuttgart | L 0–1 AW 3–1 H | W 2–1 HL 0–2 A |
| FC Augsburg | W 2–1 HW 6–0 A | L 1–2 AW 2–1 H |
| Hamburger SV | W 2–1 AW 2–1 H | D 0–0 HW 2–0 A |
| Borussia Dortmund | D 2–2 HD 1–1 A | L 2–3 AD 3–3 H |
| VfL Wolfsburg | D 2–2 HW 1–0 A | L 1–2 A |
| 1.FC Köln | W 2–1 AW 3–1 H | D 1–1 HD 1–1 A |
| FSV Mainz 05 | L 1–2 HW 1–0 A | L 1–2 HD 0–0 A |
| 1. FC Heidenheim | W 3–0 AW 2–0 H | L 0–2 AW 2–1 H |
| Bayern München | L 1–5 HL 0–6 A | L 0–5 HL 1–3 A |
| SC Freiburg | W 2–0 H | L 1–2 HL 1–2 A |
| Points | 61 of 93 · 1.97 per game | 25 of 93 · 0.81 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings
1 RB Leipzig wins2 draws0 FC St. Pauli wins
Goals per game1.00 – 0.33
Over 2.50%
Both scored33%
Clean sheets67% · 33%
- 27 Jan 2026FC St. Pauli1–1RB Leipzig
- 9 Feb 2025RB Leipzig2–0FC St. Pauli
- 22 Sep 2024FC St. Pauli0–0RB Leipzig
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| RB Leipzig | FC St. Pauli | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.97 | 0.84 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.31 | 1.72 | |
| Match goals | 3.28 | 2.56 | 4.09 |
| Over 1.5 | 84% | 81% | |
| Over 2.5 | 69% | 53% | 77% |
| Over 3.5 | 47% | 19% | |
| Both teams scored | 59% | 53% | 59% |
| Clean sheets | 34% | 16% | |
| Failed to score | 9% | 41% | |
| Games | 32 | 32 |
| RB Leipzig | FC St. Pauli | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.10 | 0.70 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.20 | 1.60 | |
| Match goals | 3.30 | 2.30 | 4.09 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 80% | 40% | 77% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 10% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 50% | 59% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| RB Leipzig | FC St. Pauli | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.79 | 4.65 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.52 | 4.77 | |
| Match total | 10.31 | 9.42 | 9.71 |
| Over 8.5 | 69% 20/29 | 68% 21/31 | |
| Over 9.5 | 62% 18/29 | 52% 16/31 | |
| Over 10.5 | 38% 11/29 | 35% 11/31 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.53 | 1.56 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.78 | 1.72 | |
| Match total | 3.31 | 3.28 | 3.87 |
| Over 3.5 | 41% 13/32 | 41% 13/32 | |
| Over 4.5 | 22% 7/32 | 22% 7/32 | |
| RB Leipzig | FC St. Pauli | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.44 | 4.10 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.22 | 4.90 | |
| Match total | 10.66 | 9.00 | 9.71 |
| Over 8.5 | 78% 7/9 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 78% 7/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 56% 5/9 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.80 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.60 | 1.40 | |
| Match total | 3.40 | 3.40 | 3.87 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Benjamin Brand Germany · 61 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.03league 3.71
Red cards0.20league 0.17
Cards 5+43%league 38%
Fouls22.7league 20.2
Penalties0.34league 0.35
Home wins31%league 43%
RB Leipzig8 with this referee
Record4-3-1
Cards · opp.1.6 · 3.3
Pens for · against1 · 0
Reds2
- D21 Feb 26H · Borussia Dortmund2–23
- L20 Dec 25H · Bayer Leverkusen1–31
- W20 Sep 25H · 1.FC Köln3–11
- W15 Dec 24H · Eintracht Frankfurt2–11
- W24 Aug 24H · VfL Bochum1–02
FC St. Pauli4 with this referee
Record2-0-2
Cards · opp.1.8 · 1.8
Pens for · against1 · 1
- W7 Feb 26H · VfB Stuttgart2–10
- L9 Nov 25A · SC Freiburg1–22
- W12 Apr 25A · Holstein Kiel2–14
- L15 Feb 25H · SC Freiburg0–11
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
RB Leipzig32 games · scored 63 · conceded 42
7
0-15
11
6
16-30
12
9
31-45
12
8
46-60
11
5
61-75
10
14
76-90
FC St. Pauli32 games · scored 27 · conceded 55
1
7
0-15
3
3
16-30
7
11
31-45
5
13
46-60
5
9
61-75
6
12
76-90
RB Leipzig10 games · scored 21 · conceded 12
1
0-15
7
2
16-30
3
3
31-45
2
2
46-60
2
61-75
6
5
76-90
FC St. Pauli10 games · scored 7 · conceded 16
3
0-15
2
16-30
1
2
31-45
1
3
46-60
2
4
61-75
1
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
