Bundesliga Gameweek 7 Sat, Oct 18 2025 · 14:30 Red Bull Arena, Leipzig
RB Leipzig
2–1 Full time · HT 1–0 xG 1.04 – 0.77
Hamburger SV
  • C. Baumgartner 45’, 50’
  • 48’ A. Sambi Lokonga
Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Match story · our forecast vs the result iModel is our forecast, published before the match and locked at kick-off: expected goals for each side and the probability of every outcome.

xG after the match measures the quality of the chances each side actually created. It is known only after the final whistle, so it is not a forecast.

RB Leipzig beat Hamburger SV

RB Leipzig entered as clear favourites and won 2–1 through two Baumgartner goals. Hamburger SV replied through a Lokonga goal. The chances were even, with xG of 1.04 and 0.77. On the chances created, Hamburger SV deserved more: 1.1 expected points against the 0 points they took.

RB Leipzig ✓66%
Draw20%
Hamburger SV14%

Model vs reality

RB Leipzig goals
2
Model 2.20 · xG 1.04
Hamburger SV goals
1
Model 0.93 · xG 0.77
Total goals
3
Model 3.13 · xG 1.81
Score 2–1
10%
Most likely 2–0 (11%)
Over 2.5
Yes
Model 61%
Both scored
Yes
Model 54%
Match facts
★ Player of the matchC. BaumgartnerRB Leipzig · 2 goals
8.6
  • RefereeTobias Welz
  • VenueRed Bull Arena
  • Table before kick-offRB Leipzig 3rd · Hamburger SV 10th

Timeline

  1. N. CapaldoYellow card · Tripping
    18’
  2. C. BaumgartnerYellow card · Tripping
    43’
  3. C. Baumgartner 1–0Assist A. Nusa
    45’
  4. Half time · 1–0
  5. A. Sambi Lokonga 1–1Assist M. Muheim
    48’
  6. C. Baumgartner 2–1Assist Rômulo
    50’
  7. ⇄ E. BanzuziFor S. Bakayoko
    60’
  8. ⇄ Y. DiomandeFor F. Ouédraogo
    61’
  9. ⇄ I. PheraiFor A. Sambi Lokonga
    76’
  10. ⇄ Y. PoulsenFor R. Königsdörffer
    76’
  11. ⇄ X. SchlagerFor C. Baumgartner
    78’
  12. Y. DiomandeYellow card · Foul
    79’
  13. ⇄ F. BaldeFor W. Mikelbrencis
    84’
  14. ⇄ L. KlostermannFor A. Nusa
    90’
  15. ⇄ C. HarderFor Rômulo
    90+1’
  16. ⇄ R. GlatzelFor Rayan Philippe
    90+1’
  17. ⇄ Guilherme RamosFor N. Capaldo
    90+1’
  18. C. HarderYellow card · Unsportsmanlike conduct
    90+6’
  19. Full time · 2–1

Team stats

RB Leipzig9 shots · 5 in box, 4 outside
Hamburger SV13 shots · 8 in box, 5 outside
RB LeipzigHamburger SV
49% Possession 51%
1.04 Expected goals (xG) 0.77
1.56 Expected points (xPts) 1.12
9 Shots 13
4 Shots on target 2
3 Shots off target 8
2 Blocked shots 3
5 Shots inside the box 8
4 Shots outside the box 5
457 Passes 467
84% Pass accuracy 85%
2 Corners 5
1 Goalkeeper saves 2
13 Fouls 12
0 Offsides 1
3 Yellow cards 1
0 Red cards 0
6.93 Team rating 6.80

Line-ups

RB Leipzig 4-3-3

16.7 P. Gulácsi(G)
226.6 D. Raum 236.9 C. Lukeba 46.9 V. Orbán 176.3 R. Baku
148.6★ C. Baumgartner ↓78’ 136.9 N. Seiwald 206.9 F. Ouédraogo ↓61’
77.9 A. Nusa A↓90’ 406.7 Rômulo A↓90’ 96.3 S. Bakayoko ↓60’
  • 1P. Gulácsi (G)6.7
  • 22D. Raum6.6
  • 23C. Lukeba6.9
  • 4V. Orbán6.9
  • 17R. Baku6.3
  • 14C. Baumgartner ★↓78’8.6
  • 13N. Seiwald6.9
  • 20F. Ouédraogo↓61’6.9
  • 7A. NusaA↓90’7.9
  • 40RômuloA↓90’6.7
  • 9S. Bakayoko↓60’6.3

Substitutes used

  • 16L. Klostermann↑90’
  • 6E. Banzuzi↑60’6.3
  • 24X. Schlager↑78’6.2
  • 49Y. Diomande↑61’6.6
  • 11C. Harder↑90’

Unused: M. Vandevoordt, E. Bitshiabu, A. Maksimović, Tidiam Gomis

Hamburger SV 3-4-3

16.3 D. Heuer Fernandes(G)
86.3 Daniel Elfadli 447.0 L. Vušković 246.5 N. Capaldo ↓90’
287.6 M. Muheim A 217.2 N. Remberg 68.3 A. Sambi Lokonga ↓76’ 25.9 W. Mikelbrencis ↓84’
77.2 Jean-Luc Dompe 116.3 R. Königsdörffer ↓76’ 146.3 Rayan Philippe ↓90’
  • 1D. Heuer Fernandes (G)6.3
  • 8Daniel Elfadli6.3
  • 44L. Vušković7.0
  • 24N. Capaldo↓90’6.5
  • 28M. MuheimA7.6
  • 21N. Remberg7.2
  • 6A. Sambi Lokonga↓76’8.3
  • 2W. Mikelbrencis↓84’5.9
  • 7Jean-Luc Dompe7.2
  • 11R. Königsdörffer↓76’6.3
  • 14Rayan Philippe↓90’6.3

Substitutes used

  • 13Guilherme Ramos↑90’
  • 10I. Pherai↑76’6.7
  • 15Y. Poulsen↑76’6.7
  • 9R. Glatzel↑90’

Unused: D. Peretz, J. Torunarigha, Alexander Røssing-Lelesiit, J. Meffert, Fabio Amadu Uri Baldé

Player stats

Top rated
C. BaumgartnerRB Leipzig8.6
2nd
A. Sambi LokongaHamburger SV8.3
3rd
A. NusaRB Leipzig7.9

RB Leipzig

PlayerMinGAShotsKPPassTklIntDrbFoulsRating
P. Gulácsi G 90 0 0 1 sv 0 68% 25 0 0 0/0 0/0 6.7
D. Raum D 90 0 0 1 (0) 1 84% 62 1 3 0/0 4/1 6.6
C. Lukeba D 90 0 0 0 (0) 0 89% 81 1 3 0/0 0/0 6.9
V. Orbán D 90 0 0 0 (0) 0 93% 69 0 0 1/1 0/0 6.9
R. Baku M 90 0 0 0 (0) 1 85% 61 3 1 0/3 2/0 6.3
C. Baumgartner M 78 2 0 3 (3) 1 79% 14 0 0 0/2 2/2 8.6
N. Seiwald M 90 0 0 0 (0) 0 86% 42 2 7 0/0 1/1 6.9
F. Ouédraogo M 61 0 0 0 (0) 2 74% 23 1 0 1/1 0/1 6.9
A. Nusa M 90 0 1 2 (1) 1 78% 18 0 0 3/6 3/6 7.9
Rômulo F 90 0 1 1 (0) 1 64% 22 2 0 0/0 0/1 6.7
S. Bakayoko F 60 0 0 0 (0) 1 90% 20 0 0 0/1 0/0 6.3
L. Klostermann D 1 0 0 0 (0) 0 — 0 0 0 0/0 0/0 —
E. Banzuzi M 30 0 0 0 (0) 0 100% 6 2 0 0/0 1/0 6.3
X. Schlager M 12 0 0 0 (0) 0 80% 5 0 0 0/0 0/0 6.2
Y. Diomande F 29 0 0 0 (0) 0 78% 9 0 1 2/3 0/0 6.6
C. Harder F 1 0 0 0 (0) 0 — 0 0 0 0/0 0/0 —

Hamburger SV

PlayerMinGAShotsKPPassTklIntDrbFoulsRating
D. Heuer Fernandes G 90 0 0 2 sv 0 92% 39 0 0 0/0 0/0 6.3
Daniel Elfadli D 90 0 0 0 (0) 0 98% 56 2 2 0/0 0/0 6.3
L. Vušković D 90 0 0 0 (0) 0 89% 80 3 1 0/0 1/0 7.0
N. Capaldo M 90 0 0 0 (0) 2 80% 60 1 1 0/0 3/5 6.5
M. Muheim D 90 0 1 1 (0) 2 80% 55 3 1 1/1 1/2 7.6
N. Remberg M 90 0 0 0 (0) 1 93% 42 3 0 0/0 2/0 7.2
A. Sambi Lokonga M 76 1 0 1 (1) 2 88% 32 1 0 0/1 1/1 8.3
W. Mikelbrencis D 84 0 0 1 (0) 0 78% 27 3 0 1/2 2/0 5.9
Jean-Luc Dompe F 90 0 0 2 (0) 2 76% 25 1 0 4/5 0/1 7.2
R. Königsdörffer F 76 0 0 4 (0) 0 68% 19 0 0 0/0 1/1 6.3
Rayan Philippe F 90 0 0 1 (1) 0 70% 20 1 0 0/0 1/1 6.3
Guilherme Ramos D 1 0 0 0 (0) 0 — 0 0 0 0/0 0/0 —
I. Pherai M 14 0 0 0 (0) 0 100% 5 0 0 0/0 0/1 6.7
Y. Poulsen F 14 0 0 0 (0) 0 80% 5 1 0 0/0 0/0 6.7
R. Glatzel F 1 0 0 0 (0) 0 — 0 0 0 0/0 0/0 —

Match data from eScored. Ratings are the data provider's 0–10 match ratings; 7.2 and above is a strong game, 8+ is rare.