RB Leipzig
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
RB Leipzig were clear favourites.
RB Leipzig were the stronger side on L90 Strength (67 vs 35). Absences weigh more on Hamburger SV. RB Leipzig had 14 days of rest, Hamburger SV 12.9 and had to travel 294 km.
Away travel294 kmRest days14 · 12.9Matches / 14d1 · 1
RB Leipzig66%
Draw20%
Hamburger SV14%
RB Leipzig63%
Draw22%
Hamburger SV15%
RB Leipzig65%
Draw21%
Hamburger SV15%
RB Leipzig58%
Draw23%
Hamburger SV19%
RB Leipzig64%
Draw21%
Hamburger SV15%
Over 2.5 61%
Both score 54%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Leipzig)
No weather data yet
Referee · GermanyTobias Welz
- Cards per match 4.2
- Penalties per match 0.27
- Matches 41
Team strength
RB Leipzig
Hamburger SV
67
L90 StrengthIn forecast
35
67
Current StrengthIn forecast
40
76
AttackIn forecast
37
53
DefenceIn forecast
43
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisHamburger SV
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
RB LeipzigHamburger SV
1.33
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
1.33
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.33
1.88
xGVia Att/Def
1.10
1.42
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.62
-0.55
Goals minus xGContext
-0.10
83%
Scored inContext
33%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
16.33
ShotsContext
12.33
4.33
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.00
27%
On target shareContext
41%
11.00
Shots in the boxContext
7.60
67%
Box shareContext
52%
8%
ConversionContext
8%
2.40
OffsidesContext
2.33
14.33
Shots allowedContext
16.17
4.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.00
5.17
BlocksContext
4.00
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.50
68%
Save rateContext
75%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
433
PassesContext
384
360
Accurate passesContext
318
83%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
7.01
Team ratingContext
6.89
10.67
FoulsContext
13.50
11.00
Fouls sufferedContext
13.33
1.50
Yellow cardsContext
2.33
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.17
1.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.88
1.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.25
1.44
xGVia Att/Def
1.10
1.65
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.62
-0.14
Goals minus xGContext
-0.22
70%
Scored inContext
38%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
13.50
ShotsContext
11.75
4.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.38
33%
On target shareContext
37%
8.50
Shots in the boxContext
6.43
61%
Box shareContext
47%
10%
ConversionContext
7%
2.22
OffsidesContext
2.25
15.00
Shots allowedContext
15.00
4.80
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.75
5.20
BlocksContext
3.86
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.50
59%
Save rateContext
78%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
441
PassesContext
406
368
Accurate passesContext
332
84%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.94
Team ratingContext
6.93
10.70
FoulsContext
12.63
9.70
Fouls sufferedContext
13.38
1.70
Yellow cardsContext
1.75
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.13
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
RB Leipzig
Rest14 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km681 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Hamburger SV
Rest12.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel294 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| RB Leipzig |
Hamburger SV |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 14Bundesliga 2025-2026, 4 Oct | 12.9Bundesliga 2025-2026, 5 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 294 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 681 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
RB Leipzig
Confirmed XI
1P. Gulácsi(G)
22D. Raum
23C. Lukeba
4V. Orbán
17R. Baku
14C. Baumgartner
13N. Seiwald
20F. Ouédraogo
7A. Nusa
40Rômulo
9S. Bakayoko
Hamburger SV
Confirmed XI
1D. Heuer Fernandes(G)
8Daniel Elfadli
44L. Vušković
24N. Capaldo
28M. Muheim
21N. Remberg
6A. Sambi Lokonga
2W. Mikelbrencis
7Jean-Luc Dompe
11R. Königsdörffer
14Rayan Philippe
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences RB Leipzig
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Hamburger SV
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- RB Leipzig+1.1 pp
- Draw-0.5 pp
- Hamburger SV-0.6 pp
Home / Away this season
RB Leipzig · Home
3.00points per game · 2 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-0-0
- Scored
- 2.50
- Conceded
- 0.50
Hamburger SV · Away
0.67points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-2-1
- Scored
- 0.00
- Conceded
- 1.67
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 3 this season
| Opponent | RB Leipzig | Hamburger SV |
|---|---|---|
| FSV Mainz 05 | W 1–0 A | W 4–0 H |
| 1. FC Heidenheim | W 2–0 H | W 2–1 H |
| Bayern München | L 0–6 A | L 0–5 A |
| Points | 6 of 9 · 2.00 per game | 6 of 9 · 2.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| RB Leipzig | Hamburger SV | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.33 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.33 | 1.33 | |
| Match goals | 2.67 | 2.33 | 3.13 |
| Over 1.5 | 67% | 67% | |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 50% | 61% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 33% | |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 17% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 17% | 67% | |
| Games | 6 | 6 |
| RB Leipzig | Hamburger SV | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.33 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.33 | 1.33 | |
| Match goals | 2.67 | 2.33 | 3.13 |
| Over 1.5 | 67% | 67% | |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 50% | 61% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 33% | |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 17% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 17% | 67% | |
| Games | 6 | 6 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| RB Leipzig | Hamburger SV | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.67 | 2.67 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.83 | 6.00 | |
| Match total | 11.50 | 8.67 | 10.20 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 4/6 | 33% 2/6 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 4/6 | 33% 2/6 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 3/6 | 33% 2/6 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.50 | 2.67 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.33 | 2.17 | |
| Match total | 3.83 | 4.84 | 4.49 |
| Over 3.5 | 67% 4/6 | 83% 5/6 | |
| Over 4.5 | 33% 2/6 | 67% 4/6 | |
| RB Leipzig | Hamburger SV | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.40 | 3.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.20 | 5.38 | |
| Match total | 11.60 | 8.38 | 10.20 |
| Over 8.5 | 80% 8/10 | 25% 2/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 70% 7/10 | 25% 2/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 60% 6/10 | 25% 2/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.80 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.70 | 2.50 | |
| Match total | 3.50 | 4.50 | 4.49 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 75% 6/8 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 50% 4/8 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Tobias Welz Germany · 41 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.05league 4.25
Red cards0.17league 0.25
Cards 5+37%league 44%
Fouls23.6league 22.8
Penalties0.27league 0.42
Home wins49%league 42%
RB Leipzig3 with this referee
Record2-0-1
Cards · opp.2.3 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W20 Apr 24A · 1. FC Heidenheim2–11
- W6 May 23A · SC Freiburg1–04
- L20 Nov 21A · 1899 Hoffenheim0–22
Hamburger SVNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
RB Leipzig6 games · scored 8 · conceded 8
3
0-15
3
16-30
3
2
31-45
1
46-60
2
61-75
1
1
76-90
Hamburger SV6 games · scored 6 · conceded 8
2
2
0-15
3
16-30
1
31-45
2
1
46-60
1
1
61-75
1
76-90
RB Leipzig10 games · scored 13 · conceded 18
5
0-15
5
16-30
5
2
31-45
1
2
46-60
6
61-75
2
3
76-90
Hamburger SV8 games · scored 7 · conceded 10
2
3
0-15
3
16-30
1
31-45
3
1
46-60
1
2
61-75
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
