RB Leipzig
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
RB Leipzig were clear favourites.
RB Leipzig were the stronger side on L90 Strength (66 vs 35). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for RB Leipzig. RB Leipzig had 2.8 days of rest, Hamburger SV 7 and had to travel 294 km. Conditions were neutral.
Away travel294 kmRest days2.8 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 1
RB Leipzig69%
Draw17%
Hamburger SV14%
RB Leipzig63%
Draw21%
Hamburger SV16%
RB Leipzig68%
Draw18%
Hamburger SV14%
RB Leipzig62%
Draw20%
Hamburger SV18%
RB Leipzig68%
Draw18%
Hamburger SV14%
Over 2.5 67%
Both score 57%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Leipzig)
20°COvercast
- Precipitation 0.0 mm
- Wind 11 km/h
- Humidity 76%
Referee · GermanyFlorian Badstubner
- Cards per match 3.6
- Penalties per match 0.29
- Matches 76
Team strength
RB Leipzig
Hamburger SV
66
L90 StrengthIn forecast
35
67
Current StrengthIn forecast
40
76
AttackIn forecast
37
53
DefenceIn forecast
43
42
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisHamburger SV
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
RB LeipzigHamburger SV
2.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.00
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
3.50
2.73
xGVia Att/Def
0.55
1.02
xG allowedVia Att/Def
2.15
-0.73
Goals minus xGContext
-0.55
100%
Scored inContext
0%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
22.00
ShotsContext
8.00
8.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.00
36%
On target shareContext
25%
16.50
Shots in the boxContext
3.50
75%
Box shareContext
44%
9%
ConversionContext
0%
—
OffsidesContext
1.50
13.50
Shots allowedContext
18.50
5.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
7.00
4.00
BlocksContext
3.00
4.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.00
73%
Save rateContext
57%
59%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
559
PassesContext
420
485
Accurate passesContext
343
87%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
7.15
Team ratingContext
6.39
9.00
FoulsContext
16.50
13.00
Fouls sufferedContext
16.00
0.50
Yellow cardsContext
1.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.10
1.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.40
2.03
xGVia Att/Def
1.02
1.46
xG allowedVia Att/Def
2.30
-0.23
Goals minus xGContext
+0.08
100%
Scored inContext
70%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
16.50
ShotsContext
10.80
6.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.80
39%
On target shareContext
35%
11.80
Shots in the boxContext
6.40
70%
Box shareContext
59%
11%
ConversionContext
10%
1.50
OffsidesContext
1.43
12.50
Shots allowedContext
16.80
4.60
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.40
3.33
BlocksContext
3.56
2.78
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.10
56%
Save rateContext
64%
56%
PossessionIn forecast
43%
503
PassesContext
351
434
Accurate passesContext
279
86%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.91
Team ratingContext
6.74
8.70
FoulsContext
12.00
9.90
Fouls sufferedContext
12.00
1.70
Yellow cardsContext
1.80
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
RB Leipzig
WLL
Rest2.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km1,942 km in 14d
Schedule load13%Low
Form 42 · 3 pts vs 3.9 for an average club · -2.0 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| RB Leipzig |
Hamburger SV |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 13 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 2.8UEFA Champions League 2026-2027 - League phase, 10 Sep | 7Bundesliga 2026-2027, 6 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 294 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,942 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 6 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
RB Leipzig
Confirmed XI
26M. Vandevoordt(G)
22D. Raum
23C. Lukeba
4V. Orbán
39B. Henrichs
8F. Ouédraogo
21N. El Aynaoui
6E. Banzuzi
7A. Nusa
27Tidiam Gomis
10B. Gruda
Hamburger SV
Confirmed XI
1D. Heuer Fernandes(G)
24N. Capaldo
23J. Torunarigha
43S. Nandja
3D. Møller Wolfe
21N. Remberg
6A. Sambi Lokonga
7Z. El Ouahdi
11A. Grønbæk
27P. Daka
15Y. Poulsen
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences RB Leipzig
Absences are shown before kick-off
Hamburger SV
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- RB Leipzig+1.1 pp
- Draw-0.5 pp
- Hamburger SV-0.6 pp
Home / Away this season
RB Leipzig · Home
3.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-0
- Scored
- 3.00
- Conceded
- 0.00
Hamburger SV · Away
0.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-1
- Scored
- 0.00
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
2 RB Leipzig wins0 draws0 Hamburger SV wins
Goals per game2.00 – 1.00
Over 2.5100%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 1 Mar 2026Hamburger SV1–2RB Leipzig
- 18 Oct 2025RB Leipzig2–1Hamburger SV
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| RB Leipzig | Hamburger SV | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.00 | 0.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 3.50 | |
| Match goals | 3.50 | 3.50 | 3.43 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 50% | 67% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 0% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 100% | |
| Games | 2 | 2 |
| RB Leipzig | Hamburger SV | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.80 | 1.10 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.90 | 2.40 | |
| Match goals | 3.70 | 3.50 | 3.43 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 90% | 70% | 67% |
| Over 3.5 | 60% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 70% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| RB Leipzig | Hamburger SV | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 7.00 | 2.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.00 | 4.00 | |
| Match total | 11.00 | 6.50 | 11.29 |
| Over 8.5 | 100% 2/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 1/2 | 0% 0/2 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 1/2 | 0% 0/2 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 0.50 | 1.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 0.50 | 3.00 | |
| Match total | 1.00 | 4.00 | 3.29 |
| Over 3.5 | 0% 0/2 | 100% 2/2 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/2 | 0% 0/2 | |
| RB Leipzig | Hamburger SV | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.00 | 3.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.56 | 6.30 | |
| Match total | 9.56 | 9.80 | 11.29 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 6/9 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 56% 5/9 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 3/9 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.70 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 0.80 | 3.00 | |
| Match total | 2.50 | 5.00 | 3.29 |
| Over 3.5 | 30% 3/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Florian Badstubner Germany · 76 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.39league 3.20
Red cards0.17league 0.12
Cards 5+29%league 20%
Fouls22.3league 22.6
Penalties0.29league 0.12
Home wins49%league 52%
RB Leipzig9 with this referee
Record7-1-1
Cards · opp.1.3 · 2.8
Pens for · against3 · 1
Reds1
- L22 Aug 25A · Bayern München0–61
- W9 Feb 25H · FC St. Pauli2–03
- W7 Dec 24A · Holstein Kiel2–03
- W15 Mar 24A · 1.FC Köln5–12
- W14 May 23H · Werder Bremen2–12
Hamburger SV1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.3.0 · 0.0
Pens for · against0 · 1
- W14 Feb 26H · Union Berlin3–23
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
RB Leipzig2 games · scored 4 · conceded 3
1
0-15
1
16-30
31-45
1
46-60
1
1
61-75
1
1
76-90
Hamburger SV2 games · scored 0 · conceded 7
1
0-15
1
16-30
2
31-45
1
46-60
61-75
2
76-90
RB Leipzig10 games · scored 18 · conceded 19
1
2
0-15
4
3
16-30
2
3
31-45
4
2
46-60
3
2
61-75
4
7
76-90
Hamburger SV10 games · scored 11 · conceded 24
1
1
0-15
1
5
16-30
3
5
31-45
3
4
46-60
3
1
61-75
8
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
