Real Betis
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Real Betis were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Celta Vigo. Real Betis had 3 days of rest, Celta Vigo 2.9 and had to travel 588 km.
Away travel588 kmRest days3 · 2.9Matches / 14d3 · 3
Real Betis39%
Draw30%
Celta Vigo30%
Real Betis45%
Draw27%
Celta Vigo28%
Real Betis39%
Draw31%
Celta Vigo30%
Real Betis33%
Draw31%
Celta Vigo37%
Real Betis40%
Draw29%
Celta Vigo31%
Over 2.5 38%
Both score 45%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Sevilla)
No weather data yet
Referee · SpainJose Maria Sanchez Martinez
- Cards per match 4.7
- Penalties per match 0.28
- Matches 53
Team strength
Real Betis
Celta Vigo
67
L90 StrengthIn forecast
65
72
Current StrengthIn forecast
54
79
AttackIn forecast
36
59
DefenceIn forecast
61
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisCelta Vigo
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Real BetisCelta Vigo
1.56
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.37
1.26
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.11
1.48
xGVia Att/Def
1.27
1.10
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.14
+0.08
Goals minus xGContext
+0.10
89%
Scored inContext
85%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
14.30
ShotsContext
10.56
4.78
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.00
33%
On target shareContext
38%
8.67
Shots in the boxContext
6.74
60%
Box shareContext
63%
11%
ConversionContext
13%
2.21
OffsidesContext
2.50
12.22
Shots allowedContext
11.56
4.26
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.12
3.15
BlocksContext
3.52
3.15
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.25
73%
Save rateContext
76%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
451
PassesContext
489
381
Accurate passesContext
421
84%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.90
Team ratingContext
6.84
10.41
FoulsContext
10.93
13.22
Fouls sufferedContext
11.56
1.89
Yellow cardsContext
1.70
0.04
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.30
1.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
1.24
xGVia Att/Def
1.29
1.20
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.67
-0.14
Goals minus xGContext
+0.01
70%
Scored inContext
90%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
13.50
ShotsContext
10.00
3.90
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.30
29%
On target shareContext
43%
7.70
Shots in the boxContext
6.90
57%
Box shareContext
68%
8%
ConversionContext
13%
2.29
OffsidesContext
2.43
12.00
Shots allowedContext
9.30
4.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.38
3.30
BlocksContext
3.44
3.20
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.43
71%
Save rateContext
68%
53%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
451
PassesContext
474
381
Accurate passesContext
411
85%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.82
Team ratingContext
6.79
11.10
FoulsContext
10.40
14.00
Fouls sufferedContext
11.10
2.20
Yellow cardsContext
1.60
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Real Betis
Rest3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel0 km5,964 km in 14d
Schedule load33%Moderate
Celta Vigo
Rest2.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel588 km1,905 km in 14d
Schedule load34%Moderate
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Real Betis |
Celta Vigo |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Moderate · 33 | Moderate · 34 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 3UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - Knockout phase, 12 Mar | 2.9UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - Knockout phase, 12 Mar |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 588 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 5,964 km | 1,905 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 3 / 5 | 1 / 3 / 6 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 4.1 | 4 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Real Betis
Confirmed XI
1Álvaro Vallés(G)
23J. Firpo
4Natan
5Marc Bartra
2Héctor Bellerín
15Álvaro Fidalgo
21Marc Roca
10A. Ezzalzouli
8Pablo Fornals
24Aitor Ruibal
19C. Hernández
Celta Vigo
Confirmed XI
13I. Radu(G)
20Marcos Alonso
2C. Starfelt
14Alvaro Núñez
3Óscar Mingueza
22Hugo Sotelo
8Fer López
5Sergio Carreira
23Hugo Álvarez
18Pablo Durán
9Ferran Jutglà
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Real Betis
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Celta Vigo
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Real Betis+0.1 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- Celta Vigo+0.1 pp
Home / Away this season
Real Betis · Home
1.85points per game · 13 home games
- W-D-L
- 7-3-3
- Scored
- 1.92
- Conceded
- 1.15
Celta Vigo · Away
1.77points per game · 13 away games
- W-D-L
- 6-5-2
- Scored
- 1.31
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Real Betis | Celta Vigo |
|---|---|---|
| Getafe | L 0–2 AW 4–0 H | D 0–0 AL 0–2 H |
| Sevilla | D 2–2 HW 2–0 A | W 1–0 A |
| Rayo Vallecano | D 1–1 HD 0–0 A | W 3–0 HD 1–1 A |
| Mallorca | W 2–1 AW 3–0 H | W 2–0 HD 1–1 A |
| Atletico Madrid | W 1–0 AL 0–2 H | D 1–1 H |
| Valencia | W 2–1 HD 1–1 A | W 4–1 H |
| Alaves | L 1–2 AW 1–0 H | W 1–0 A |
| Villarreal | W 2–0 HD 2–2 A | D 1–1 H |
| Oviedo | D 1–1 A | D 0–0 A |
| Real Madrid | L 1–5 A | L 1–2 HW 2–0 A |
| Barcelona | L 3–5 H | L 2–4 H |
| Girona | D 1–1 H | W 2–1 AD 1–1 H |
| Espanyol | W 2–1 A | D 2–2 AL 0–1 H |
| Osasuna | W 2–0 H | L 1–2 HW 3–2 A |
| Real Sociedad | W 3–1 H | L 1–3 AD 1–1 H |
| Levante | D 2–2 A | W 2–1 A |
| Athletic Club | L 1–2 H | W 2–0 H |
| Elche | D 1–1 A | L 1–2 A |
| Points | 42 of 78 · 1.62 per game | 39 of 78 · 1.50 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 10 of 11 meetings
2 Real Betis wins3 draws5 Celta Vigo wins
Goals per game1.40 – 1.80
Over 2.560%
Both scored70%
Clean sheets10% · 30%
- 27 Aug 2025Celta Vigo1–1Real Betis
- 8 Feb 2025Celta Vigo3–2Real Betis
- 10 Nov 2024Real Betis2–2Celta Vigo
- 12 Apr 2024Real Betis2–1Celta Vigo
- 3 Jan 2024Celta Vigo2–1Real Betis
- 4 Feb 2023Real Betis3–4Celta Vigo
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Real Betis | Celta Vigo | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.56 | 1.37 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.26 | 1.11 | |
| Match goals | 2.81 | 2.48 | 2.20 |
| Over 1.5 | 89% | 81% | |
| Over 2.5 | 48% | 41% | 38% |
| Over 3.5 | 26% | 19% | |
| Both teams scored | 63% | 63% | 45% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 11% | 15% | |
| Games | 27 | 27 |
| Real Betis | Celta Vigo | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.10 | 1.30 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.30 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.40 | 2.30 | 2.20 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 50% | 38% |
| Over 3.5 | 10% | 10% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 70% | 45% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Real Betis | Celta Vigo | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.38 | 4.07 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.23 | 4.74 | |
| Match total | 9.61 | 8.81 | 9.53 |
| Over 8.5 | 62% 16/26 | 48% 13/27 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 13/26 | 33% 9/27 | |
| Over 10.5 | 27% 7/26 | 26% 7/27 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.93 | 1.74 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.67 | 2.63 | |
| Match total | 4.60 | 4.37 | 4.46 |
| Over 3.5 | 63% 17/27 | 59% 16/27 | |
| Over 4.5 | 52% 14/27 | 41% 11/27 | |
| Real Betis | Celta Vigo | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.40 | 4.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.00 | 4.11 | |
| Match total | 9.40 | 8.11 | 9.53 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 11% 1/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.30 | 1.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 3.00 | 1.90 | |
| Match total | 5.30 | 3.60 | 4.46 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 70% 7/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Jose Maria Sanchez Martinez Spain · 53 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.40league 4.20
Red cards0.34league 0.28
Cards 5+49%league 47%
Fouls24.6league 24.5
Penalties0.28league 0.37
Home wins49%league 48%
Real Betis4 with this referee
Record2-1-1
Cards · opp.2.0 · 3.3
Pens for · against2 · 1
- W1 Feb 26H · Valencia2–10
- D28 Apr 24H · Sevilla1–13
- W29 Oct 23H · Osasuna2–13
- L16 Sep 23A · Barcelona0–52
Celta Vigo4 with this referee
Record3-1-0
Cards · opp.3.0 · 4.3
Pens for · against2 · 0
Reds1
- W12 Jan 26A · Sevilla1–03
- W1 Mar 24H · Almeria1–01
- W16 Dec 23H · Granada CF1–07
- D8 Oct 23H · Getafe2–21
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Real Betis27 games · scored 42 · conceded 34
3
8
0-15
9
4
16-30
7
6
31-45
7
6
46-60
7
4
61-75
9
6
76-90
Celta Vigo26 games · scored 35 · conceded 30
1
4
0-15
4
2
16-30
6
7
31-45
8
2
46-60
4
8
61-75
12
7
76-90
Real Betis10 games · scored 11 · conceded 13
1
0-15
6
2
16-30
3
2
31-45
1
46-60
3
61-75
2
4
76-90
Celta Vigo10 games · scored 13 · conceded 10
1
0-15
2
16-30
3
2
31-45
2
46-60
2
1
61-75
4
6
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
