Real Betis
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Real Betis were clear favourites.
Real Betis were the stronger side on L90 Strength (66 vs 44). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Real Betis. Real Betis had 13 days of rest, Espanyol 14.1 and had to travel 821 km.
Away travel821 kmRest days13 · 14.1Matches / 14d1 · 0
Real Betis64%
Draw21%
Espanyol14%
Real Betis58%
Draw24%
Espanyol19%
Real Betis64%
Draw22%
Espanyol14%
Real Betis57%
Draw24%
Espanyol19%
Real Betis65%
Draw20%
Espanyol14%
Over 2.5 55%
Both score 50%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Sevilla)
No weather data yet
Referee · SpainGuillermo Cuadra Fernandez
- Cards per match 4.9
- Penalties per match 0.39
- Matches 41
Team strength
Real Betis
Espanyol
66
L90 StrengthIn forecast
44
71
Current StrengthIn forecast
44
79
AttackIn forecast
36
59
DefenceIn forecast
51
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisEspanyol
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Real BetisEspanyol
1.52
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.24
1.28
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.52
1.43
xGVia Att/Def
1.28
1.08
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.33
+0.09
Goals minus xGContext
-0.04
90%
Scored inContext
83%
28%
Clean sheetsContext
24%
14.24
ShotsContext
12.62
4.72
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.21
33%
On target shareContext
33%
8.55
Shots in the boxContext
8.07
59%
Box shareContext
64%
11%
ConversionContext
10%
2.24
OffsidesContext
2.24
12.00
Shots allowedContext
12.41
4.28
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.83
3.04
BlocksContext
3.46
3.18
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.52
73%
Save rateContext
70%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
43%
457
PassesContext
354
387
Accurate passesContext
282
85%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.89
Team ratingContext
6.76
10.28
FoulsContext
13.31
13.14
Fouls sufferedContext
12.59
1.86
Yellow cardsContext
2.14
0.03
Red cardsContext
0.07
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.30
1.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.40
1.40
xGVia Att/Def
1.09
0.87
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.78
+0.00
Goals minus xGContext
+0.21
80%
Scored inContext
90%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
13.50
ShotsContext
12.50
4.70
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.80
35%
On target shareContext
30%
7.90
Shots in the boxContext
7.56
58%
Box shareContext
61%
10%
ConversionContext
10%
2.00
OffsidesContext
2.38
10.20
Shots allowedContext
12.60
3.80
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.10
2.50
BlocksContext
2.78
2.80
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.89
74%
Save rateContext
60%
53%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
478
PassesContext
378
411
Accurate passesContext
305
86%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.90
Team ratingContext
6.60
9.80
FoulsContext
13.40
13.20
Fouls sufferedContext
13.60
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
2.90
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Real Betis
Rest13 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km1,406 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Espanyol
Rest14.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel821 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load12%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Real Betis |
Espanyol |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 12 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 13La Liga 2025-2026, 22 Mar | 14.1La Liga 2025-2026, 21 Mar |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 821 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,406 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 5 | 0 / 0 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 4 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Real Betis
Confirmed XI
1Álvaro Vallés(G)
16Valentín Gómez
3Diego Llorente
5Marc Bartra
2Héctor Bellerín
8Pablo Fornals
14S. Amrabat
6Sergi Altimira
24Aitor Ruibal
19C. Hernández
7Antony
Espanyol
Confirmed XI
13M. Dmitrović(G)
22Carlos Romero
6L. Cabrera
38C. Riedel
23O. El Hilali
10Pol Lozano
4Urko González
24T. Dolan
8Edu Expósito
16C. Ngonge
9R. Fernández Jaén
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Real Betis
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Espanyol
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Real Betis+0.2 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- Espanyol-0.1 pp
Home / Away this season
Real Betis · Home
1.79points per game · 14 home games
- W-D-L
- 7-4-3
- Scored
- 1.86
- Conceded
- 1.14
Espanyol · Away
1.14points per game · 14 away games
- W-D-L
- 4-4-6
- Scored
- 1.29
- Conceded
- 1.64
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Real Betis | Espanyol |
|---|---|---|
| Athletic Club | L 1–2 AL 1–2 H | W 2–1 A |
| Celta Vigo | D 1–1 HD 1–1 A | D 2–2 HW 1–0 A |
| Getafe | L 0–2 AW 4–0 H | L 1–2 HW 1–0 A |
| Sevilla | D 2–2 HW 2–0 A | W 2–1 H |
| Rayo Vallecano | D 1–1 HD 0–0 A | W 1–0 H |
| Mallorca | W 2–1 AW 3–0 H | L 1–2 AW 3–2 H |
| Atletico Madrid | W 1–0 AL 0–2 H | L 2–4 AW 2–1 H |
| Valencia | W 2–1 HD 1–1 A | L 2–3 AD 2–2 H |
| Alaves | L 1–2 AW 1–0 H | L 1–2 HL 1–2 A |
| Villarreal | W 2–0 HD 2–2 A | L 1–4 AL 0–2 H |
| Oviedo | D 1–1 A | D 1–1 HW 2–0 A |
| Real Madrid | L 1–5 A | L 0–2 A |
| Barcelona | L 3–5 H | L 0–2 H |
| Girona | D 1–1 H | L 0–2 HD 0–0 A |
| Osasuna | W 2–0 H | W 1–0 H |
| Real Sociedad | W 3–1 H | D 2–2 A |
| Levante | D 2–2 A | D 1–1 A |
| Elche | D 1–1 A | D 2–2 AW 1–0 H |
| Points | 41 of 84 · 1.46 per game | 37 of 84 · 1.32 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings
5 Real Betis wins1 draws1 Espanyol wins
Goals per game2.00 – 1.00
Over 2.571%
Both scored71%
Clean sheets14% · 14%
- 5 Oct 2025Espanyol1–2Real Betis
- 4 May 2025Espanyol1–2Real Betis
- 29 Sep 2024Real Betis1–0Espanyol
- 15 Apr 2023Real Betis3–1Espanyol
- 21 Jan 2023Espanyol1–0Real Betis
- 21 Jan 2022Espanyol1–4Real Betis
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Real Betis | Espanyol | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.52 | 1.24 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.28 | 1.52 | |
| Match goals | 2.79 | 2.76 | 2.87 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 79% | |
| Over 2.5 | 48% | 55% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 24% | 28% | |
| Both teams scored | 66% | 62% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 28% | 24% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 17% | |
| Games | 29 | 29 |
| Real Betis | Espanyol | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.40 | 1.30 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.10 | 2.40 | |
| Match goals | 2.50 | 3.70 | 2.87 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 80% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 90% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Real Betis | Espanyol | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.36 | 4.57 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.21 | 4.54 | |
| Match total | 9.57 | 9.11 | 9.52 |
| Over 8.5 | 61% 17/28 | 46% 13/28 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 14/28 | 39% 11/28 | |
| Over 10.5 | 29% 8/28 | 32% 9/28 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.90 | 2.28 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.62 | 2.45 | |
| Match total | 4.52 | 4.73 | 4.47 |
| Over 3.5 | 62% 18/29 | 66% 19/29 | |
| Over 4.5 | 52% 15/29 | 59% 17/29 | |
| Real Betis | Espanyol | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.20 | 5.33 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.60 | 4.00 | |
| Match total | 8.80 | 9.33 | 9.52 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.10 | 3.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.90 | 2.40 | |
| Match total | 5.00 | 5.50 | 4.47 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Guillermo Cuadra Fernandez Spain · 41 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.56league 4.22
Red cards0.32league 0.28
Cards 5+61%league 47%
Fouls25.8league 24.5
Penalties0.39league 0.36
Home wins46%league 49%
Real Betis4 with this referee
Record3-1-0
Cards · opp.1.3 · 3.8
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D10 Jan 26A · Oviedo1–11
- W4 May 25A · Espanyol2–10
- W25 Feb 24H · Athletic Club3–11
- W13 Jan 24H · Granada CF1–03
Espanyol3 with this referee
Record0-1-2
Cards · opp.1.7 · 1.3
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D14 Feb 26H · Celta Vigo2–21
- L2 Nov 25A · Alaves1–22
- L4 May 25H · Real Betis1–22
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Real Betis29 games · scored 44 · conceded 37
3
9
0-15
9
5
16-30
7
7
31-45
8
6
46-60
8
4
61-75
9
6
76-90
Espanyol29 games · scored 36 · conceded 44
5
4
0-15
1
3
16-30
6
12
31-45
10
9
46-60
4
8
61-75
10
8
76-90
Real Betis10 games · scored 14 · conceded 11
1
1
0-15
5
3
16-30
3
3
31-45
2
46-60
2
2
61-75
1
2
76-90
Espanyol10 games · scored 13 · conceded 24
3
2
0-15
2
16-30
2
7
31-45
2
5
46-60
2
3
61-75
4
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
