Real Betis
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Real Betis were slight favourites.
Real Betis were the stronger side on L90 Strength (71 vs 45). Absences weigh more on Real Betis. Real Betis had 6 days of rest, Getafe 8 and had to travel 378 km.
Away travel378 kmRest days6 · 8Matches / 14d2 · 1
Real Betis58%
Draw25%
Getafe18%
Real Betis60%
Draw23%
Getafe17%
Real Betis58%
Draw24%
Getafe17%
Real Betis50%
Draw27%
Getafe23%
Real Betis59%
Draw23%
Getafe18%
Over 2.5 48%
Both score 48%
Likeliest score 1–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Sevilla)
No weather data yet
Referee · SpainMiguel Sesma Espinosa
- Cards per match 2.8
- Penalties per match 0.00
- Matches 8
Team strength
Real Betis
Getafe
71
L90 StrengthIn forecast
45
71
Current StrengthIn forecast
48
79
AttackIn forecast
27
59
DefenceIn forecast
59
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisGetafe
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Real BetisGetafe
1.56
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.81
1.19
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.13
1.42
xGVia Att/Def
0.70
1.05
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.78
+0.14
Goals minus xGContext
+0.11
88%
Scored inContext
56%
31%
Clean sheetsContext
25%
14.63
ShotsContext
8.94
4.81
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.86
33%
On target shareContext
28%
8.94
Shots in the boxContext
4.71
61%
Box shareContext
49%
11%
ConversionContext
9%
2.08
OffsidesContext
2.64
11.75
Shots allowedContext
9.75
3.94
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.06
2.93
BlocksContext
2.43
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.25
74%
Save rateContext
80%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
41%
462
PassesContext
291
390
Accurate passesContext
204
84%
Pass accuracyContext
70%
6.92
Team ratingContext
6.72
10.25
FoulsContext
13.75
12.81
Fouls sufferedContext
15.25
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
2.88
0.06
Red cardsContext
0.13
1.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.60
1.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
1.47
xGVia Att/Def
0.67
1.04
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.78
+0.23
Goals minus xGContext
-0.07
80%
Scored inContext
50%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
14.20
ShotsContext
9.50
5.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.00
39%
On target shareContext
25%
8.20
Shots in the boxContext
4.56
60%
Box shareContext
46%
12%
ConversionContext
6%
2.33
OffsidesContext
2.67
11.70
Shots allowedContext
9.90
3.80
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.60
3.33
BlocksContext
2.63
2.60
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.80
68%
Save rateContext
83%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
43%
456
PassesContext
297
384
Accurate passesContext
204
84%
Pass accuracyContext
69%
6.91
Team ratingContext
6.71
10.90
FoulsContext
13.30
12.10
Fouls sufferedContext
15.50
2.30
Yellow cardsContext
3.20
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Real Betis
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km4,866 km in 14d
Schedule load10%Low
Getafe
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel378 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Real Betis |
Getafe |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 10 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6La Liga 2025-2026, 15 Dec | 8La Liga 2025-2026, 13 Dec |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 378 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 4,866 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 5 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 13.8 | 12 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Real Betis
Confirmed XI
1Álvaro Vallés(G)
12R. Rodríguez
4Natan
5Marc Bartra
40Ángel Ortiz
21Marc Roca
18Nelson Alexander Deossa Suarez
24Aitor Ruibal
8Pablo Fornals
7Antony
19C. Hernández
Getafe
Confirmed XI
13David Soria(G)
12A. Nyom
2D. Dakonam
22Domingos Duarte
21Juan Iglesias
17Kiko Femenía
8M. Arambarri
5Luis Milla
6Mario Martín
9Borja Mayoral
23Adrian Liso
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Real Betis
Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Getafe
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Real Betis-0.8 pp
- Draw+0.2 pp
- Getafe+0.6 pp
Home / Away this season
Real Betis · Home
1.63points per game · 8 home games
- W-D-L
- 4-1-3
- Scored
- 1.75
- Conceded
- 1.38
Getafe · Away
1.13points per game · 8 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-0-5
- Scored
- 0.75
- Conceded
- 1.50
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 14 this season
| Opponent | Real Betis | Getafe |
|---|---|---|
| Barcelona | L 3–5 H | L 0–3 A |
| Sevilla | W 2–0 A | W 2–1 A |
| Girona | D 1–1 H | W 2–1 H |
| Valencia | D 1–1 A | L 0–3 A |
| Mallorca | W 3–0 H | L 0–1 A |
| Atletico Madrid | L 0–2 H | L 0–1 H |
| Villarreal | D 2–2 A | L 0–2 A |
| Espanyol | W 2–1 A | L 0–1 H |
| Osasuna | W 2–0 H | L 1–2 A |
| Levante | D 2–2 A | D 1–1 H |
| Athletic Club | L 1–2 H | W 1–0 A |
| Celta Vigo | D 1–1 A | W 2–0 A |
| Alaves | W 1–0 H | D 1–1 H |
| Elche | D 1–1 A | W 1–0 H |
| Points | 21 of 42 · 1.50 per game | 17 of 42 · 1.21 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings
5 Real Betis wins3 draws2 Getafe wins
Goals per game1.00 – 0.80
Over 2.530%
Both scored40%
Clean sheets40% · 30%
- 23 Feb 2025Getafe1–2Real Betis
- 18 Sep 2024Real Betis2–1Getafe
- 4 Feb 2024Real Betis1–1Getafe
- 21 Oct 2023Getafe1–1Real Betis
- 24 May 2023Real Betis0–1Getafe
- 28 Jan 2023Getafe0–1Real Betis
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Real Betis | Getafe | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.56 | 0.81 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.19 | 1.13 | |
| Match goals | 2.75 | 1.94 | 2.61 |
| Over 1.5 | 88% | 63% | |
| Over 2.5 | 44% | 31% | 48% |
| Over 3.5 | 25% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 63% | 31% | 48% |
| Clean sheets | 31% | 25% | |
| Failed to score | 13% | 44% | |
| Games | 16 | 16 |
| Real Betis | Getafe | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.70 | 0.60 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.10 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.80 | 1.60 | 2.61 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 40% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 20% | 48% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 30% | 48% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 50% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Real Betis | Getafe | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.53 | 4.69 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.67 | 4.06 | |
| Match total | 10.20 | 8.75 | 9.63 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 10/15 | 44% 7/16 | |
| Over 9.5 | 53% 8/15 | 38% 6/16 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 5/15 | 25% 4/16 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.06 | 3.06 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.69 | 2.13 | |
| Match total | 4.75 | 5.19 | 4.36 |
| Over 3.5 | 63% 10/16 | 81% 13/16 | |
| Over 4.5 | 56% 9/16 | 63% 10/16 | |
| Real Betis | Getafe | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.33 | 5.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.22 | 3.20 | |
| Match total | 8.55 | 8.70 | 9.63 |
| Over 8.5 | 56% 5/9 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 22% 2/9 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 11% 1/9 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.40 | 3.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.60 | 1.60 | |
| Match total | 5.00 | 5.10 | 4.36 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 70% 7/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Miguel Sesma Espinosa Spain · 8 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards2.75league 4.10
Red cards0.00league 0.28
Cards 5+25%league 45%
Fouls26.3league 24.6
Penalties0.00league 0.33
Home wins88%league 47%
Real BetisNo previous matches with this referee.
GetafeNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Real Betis16 games · scored 25 · conceded 19
3
7
0-15
3
1
16-30
5
4
31-45
3
3
46-60
6
1
61-75
5
3
76-90
Getafe16 games · scored 13 · conceded 18
1
2
0-15
1
2
16-30
2
4
31-45
4
2
46-60
4
3
61-75
1
5
76-90
Real Betis10 games · scored 17 · conceded 11
2
3
0-15
1
1
16-30
7
3
31-45
2
2
46-60
3
61-75
2
2
76-90
Getafe10 games · scored 6 · conceded 10
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
2
31-45
2
1
46-60
2
1
61-75
1
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
