Real Betis
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Real Betis were clear favourites.
Real Betis were the stronger side on L90 Strength (72 vs 48). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Real Betis. Real Betis had 2.9 days of rest, Getafe 4 and had to travel 378 km. Weather to note: warm.
Away travel378 kmRest days2.9 · 4Matches / 14d3 · 2
Real Betis61%
Draw21%
Getafe18%
Real Betis59%
Draw22%
Getafe19%
Real Betis61%
Draw21%
Getafe17%
Real Betis53%
Draw24%
Getafe23%
Real Betis61%
Draw21%
Getafe18%
Over 2.5 57%
Both score 53%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Sevilla)
Warm
29°CClear
- Precipitation 0.0 mm
- Wind 13 km/h
- Humidity 45%
Referee · SpainJose Maria Sanchez Martinez
- Cards per match 4.6
- Penalties per match 0.27
- Matches 63
Team strength
Real Betis
Getafe
72
L90 StrengthIn forecast
48
72
Current StrengthIn forecast
48
79
AttackIn forecast
27
59
DefenceIn forecast
59
93
Form indexContext
32
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisGetafe
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Real BetisGetafe
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.60
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
1.66
xGVia Att/Def
0.72
2.12
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.36
-0.26
Goals minus xGContext
-0.12
100%
Scored inContext
60%
60%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
17.80
ShotsContext
10.80
6.60
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.00
37%
On target shareContext
19%
11.00
Shots in the boxContext
5.80
57%
Box shareContext
54%
8%
ConversionContext
6%
1.40
OffsidesContext
2.33
15.60
Shots allowedContext
12.00
6.40
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.80
3.60
BlocksContext
3.00
4.60
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.60
72%
Save rateContext
68%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
42%
477
PassesContext
332
411
Accurate passesContext
250
86%
Pass accuracyContext
75%
7.14
Team ratingContext
6.68
9.20
FoulsContext
12.60
10.20
Fouls sufferedContext
13.60
1.60
Yellow cardsContext
2.80
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.20
1.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.70
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
1.62
xGVia Att/Def
0.82
1.76
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.93
+0.08
Goals minus xGContext
-0.12
100%
Scored inContext
50%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
16.40
ShotsContext
10.20
6.10
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.67
37%
On target shareContext
24%
9.30
Shots in the boxContext
6.00
54%
Box shareContext
57%
10%
ConversionContext
7%
2.11
OffsidesContext
1.71
13.40
Shots allowedContext
10.60
5.60
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.90
2.90
BlocksContext
2.40
4.33
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.90
72%
Save rateContext
74%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
473
PassesContext
318
410
Accurate passesContext
234
87%
Pass accuracyContext
74%
6.97
Team ratingContext
6.74
10.20
FoulsContext
13.10
10.10
Fouls sufferedContext
15.30
1.70
Yellow cardsContext
2.30
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Real Betis
WLWWW
Rest2.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel0 km4,447 km in 14d
Schedule load33%Moderate
Form 93 · 12 pts vs 4.9 for an average club · +6.2 vs expected
Getafe
LWLDD
Rest4 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel378 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Form 32 · 5 pts vs 7.2 for an average club · -1.7 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Real Betis |
Getafe |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Moderate · 33 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 2.9La Liga 2026-2027, 14 Sep | 4La Liga 2026-2027, 13 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 378 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 4,447 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 3 / 6 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 3 | 2.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Real Betis
Confirmed XI
1Álvaro Vallés(G)
23J. Firpo
16Valentín Gómez
4Natan
12Ángel Ortiz
6F. Bernal
18Nelson Alexander Deossa Suarez
10A. Ezzalzouli
22Isco
7Antony
19T. Parrott
Getafe
Confirmed XI
13David Soria(G)
3Davinchi
24Z. Romero
2D. Dakonam
21Andrés García
8N. Gudelj
10M. Satriano
6Mario Martín
23O. Mangala
16Francho Serrano
20Ivan Azón Monzón
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Real Betis
Absences are shown before kick-off
Getafe
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Real Betis-0.2 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- Getafe+0.3 pp
Home / Away this season
Real Betis · Home
3.00points per game · 2 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-0-0
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 0.00
Getafe · Away
0.00points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-2
- Scored
- 0.00
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 10 of 12 meetings
5 Real Betis wins3 draws2 Getafe wins
Goals per game1.30 – 0.70
Over 2.530%
Both scored40%
Clean sheets40% · 30%
- 8 Mar 2026Getafe2–0Real Betis
- 21 Dec 2025Real Betis4–0Getafe
- 23 Feb 2025Getafe1–2Real Betis
- 18 Sep 2024Real Betis2–1Getafe
- 4 Feb 2024Real Betis1–1Getafe
- 21 Oct 2023Getafe1–1Real Betis
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Real Betis | Getafe | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.40 | 0.60 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.20 | 1.20 | |
| Match goals | 2.60 | 1.80 | 2.95 |
| Over 1.5 | 40% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 20% | 57% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 40% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 60% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 40% | |
| Games | 5 | 5 |
| Real Betis | Getafe | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.70 | 0.70 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 3.20 | 1.70 | 2.95 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 20% | 57% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 10% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 30% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 50% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Real Betis | Getafe | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.80 | 4.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 7.00 | 4.80 | |
| Match total | 11.80 | 8.80 | 9.98 |
| Over 8.5 | 100% 5/5 | 40% 2/5 | |
| Over 9.5 | 80% 4/5 | 40% 2/5 | |
| Over 10.5 | 60% 3/5 | 20% 1/5 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.60 | 3.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.20 | 3.00 | |
| Match total | 3.80 | 6.20 | 4.45 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 2/5 | 100% 5/5 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 2/5 | 60% 3/5 | |
| Real Betis | Getafe | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.70 | 4.33 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.80 | 3.67 | |
| Match total | 10.50 | 8.00 | 9.98 |
| Over 8.5 | 80% 8/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 11% 1/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.80 | 2.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.20 | 3.30 | |
| Match total | 4.00 | 5.90 | 4.45 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 90% 9/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Jose Maria Sanchez Martinez Spain · 63 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.29league 4.19
Red cards0.30league 0.25
Cards 5+48%league 49%
Fouls25.1league 24.5
Penalties0.27league 0.35
Home wins51%league 46%
Real Betis5 with this referee
Record2-2-1
Cards · opp.2.0 · 3.2
Pens for · against2 · 1
- D15 Mar 26H · Celta Vigo1–12
- W1 Feb 26H · Valencia2–10
- D28 Apr 24H · Sevilla1–13
- W29 Oct 23H · Osasuna2–13
- L16 Sep 23A · Barcelona0–52
Getafe4 with this referee
Record1-1-2
Cards · opp.4.3 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 2
Reds1
- W31 Oct 25H · Girona2–11
- L23 Apr 25H · Real Madrid0–13
- L21 Jan 24A · Osasuna2–34
- D8 Oct 23A · Celta Vigo2–29
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Real Betis5 games · scored 7 · conceded 6
0-15
2
16-30
4
1
31-45
1
46-60
1
1
61-75
2
1
76-90
Getafe5 games · scored 3 · conceded 6
0-15
1
16-30
1
31-45
1
46-60
1
1
61-75
1
3
76-90
Real Betis10 games · scored 17 · conceded 15
2
1
0-15
3
16-30
6
4
31-45
3
1
46-60
4
3
61-75
2
3
76-90
Getafe10 games · scored 7 · conceded 10
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
1
2
31-45
1
1
46-60
2
3
61-75
1
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
