Real Betis
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Real Madrid were slight favourites.
Real Madrid were the stronger side on L90 Strength (88 vs 65). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Real Betis. Real Betis had 3 days of rest, Real Madrid 3 and had to travel 390 km.
Away travel390 kmRest days3 · 3Matches / 14d3 · 2
Real Betis29%
Draw26%
Real Madrid45%
Real Betis25%
Draw26%
Real Madrid49%
Real Betis28%
Draw26%
Real Madrid46%
Real Betis23%
Draw25%
Real Madrid53%
Real Betis29%
Draw25%
Real Madrid45%
Over 2.5 53%
Both score 57%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Sevilla)
No weather data yet
Referee · SpainCesar Soto Grado
- Cards per match 4.9
- Penalties per match 0.31
- Matches 42
Team strength
Real Betis
Real Madrid
65
L90 StrengthIn forecast
88
71
Current StrengthIn forecast
89
79
AttackIn forecast
89
59
DefenceIn forecast
85
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisReal Madrid
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Real BetisReal Madrid
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.09
1.25
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.94
1.38
xGVia Att/Def
1.99
1.07
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.04
+0.12
Goals minus xGContext
+0.10
88%
Scored inContext
91%
28%
Clean sheetsContext
34%
13.91
ShotsContext
17.84
4.66
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.78
34%
On target shareContext
38%
8.28
Shots in the boxContext
11.13
58%
Box shareContext
62%
11%
ConversionContext
12%
2.17
OffsidesContext
2.32
11.75
Shots allowedContext
10.00
4.09
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.32
3.10
BlocksContext
3.24
3.10
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.33
73%
Save rateContext
69%
51%
PossessionIn forecast
59%
462
PassesContext
582
391
Accurate passesContext
523
85%
Pass accuracyContext
90%
6.88
Team ratingContext
7.11
10.63
FoulsContext
10.28
13.25
Fouls sufferedContext
13.16
1.94
Yellow cardsContext
1.69
0.03
Red cardsContext
0.09
1.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.20
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
1.16
xGVia Att/Def
1.84
0.89
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.38
+0.14
Goals minus xGContext
+0.36
70%
Scored inContext
100%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
12.70
ShotsContext
16.30
5.10
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.90
40%
On target shareContext
42%
7.00
Shots in the boxContext
10.10
53%
Box shareContext
62%
10%
ConversionContext
14%
2.11
OffsidesContext
2.33
7.90
Shots allowedContext
13.50
3.20
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.80
2.30
BlocksContext
4.00
2.38
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.67
76%
Save rateContext
72%
56%
PossessionIn forecast
52%
519
PassesContext
522
445
Accurate passesContext
466
86%
Pass accuracyContext
89%
6.81
Team ratingContext
7.05
11.10
FoulsContext
10.20
13.70
Fouls sufferedContext
11.90
2.40
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Real Betis
Rest3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel0 km3,234 km in 14d
Schedule load33%Moderate
Real Madrid
Rest3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel390 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load14%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Real Betis |
Real Madrid |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Moderate · 33 | Low · 14 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 3La Liga 2025-2026, 21 Apr | 3La Liga 2025-2026, 21 Apr |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 390 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 3,234 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 3 / 5 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 8.9 | 9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Real Betis
Confirmed XI
1Álvaro Vallés(G)
12R. Rodríguez
4Natan
5Marc Bartra
2Héctor Bellerín
15Álvaro Fidalgo
14S. Amrabat
10A. Ezzalzouli
8Pablo Fornals
7Antony
11C. Bakambu
Real Madrid
Confirmed XI
13A. Lunin(G)
23F. Mendy
24D. Huijsen
22A. Rüdiger
12T. Alexander-Arnold
45Thiago Pitarch
8F. Valverde
5J. Bellingham
21Brahim Díaz
7Vinícius
10K. Mbappé
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Real Betis
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Real Madrid
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Real Betis+0.8 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- Real Madrid-0.6 pp
Home / Away this season
Real Betis · Home
1.73points per game · 15 home games
- W-D-L
- 7-5-3
- Scored
- 1.73
- Conceded
- 1.07
Real Madrid · Away
2.00points per game · 15 away games
- W-D-L
- 9-3-3
- Scored
- 1.87
- Conceded
- 1.07
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Real Betis | Real Madrid |
|---|---|---|
| Girona | W 3–2 AD 1–1 H | D 1–1 HD 1–1 A |
| Osasuna | D 1–1 AW 2–0 H | L 1–2 AW 1–0 H |
| Espanyol | D 0–0 HW 2–1 A | W 2–0 H |
| Athletic Club | L 1–2 AL 1–2 H | W 3–0 A |
| Celta Vigo | D 1–1 HD 1–1 A | W 2–1 AL 0–2 H |
| Getafe | L 0–2 AW 4–0 H | L 0–1 HW 1–0 A |
| Sevilla | D 2–2 HW 2–0 A | W 2–0 H |
| Rayo Vallecano | D 1–1 HD 0–0 A | W 2–1 HD 0–0 A |
| Mallorca | W 2–1 AW 3–0 H | L 1–2 AW 2–1 H |
| Atletico Madrid | W 1–0 AL 0–2 H | W 3–2 HL 2–5 A |
| Valencia | W 2–1 HD 1–1 A | W 2–0 AW 4–0 H |
| Alaves | L 1–2 AW 1–0 H | W 2–1 HW 2–1 A |
| Villarreal | W 2–0 HD 2–2 A | W 2–0 AW 3–1 H |
| Oviedo | D 1–1 A | W 3–0 A |
| Barcelona | L 3–5 H | W 2–1 H |
| Real Sociedad | W 3–1 H | W 4–1 HW 2–1 A |
| Levante | D 2–2 A | W 2–0 HW 4–1 A |
| Elche | D 1–1 A | W 4–1 HD 2–2 A |
| Points | 49 of 93 · 1.58 per game | 70 of 93 · 2.26 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 10 of 11 meetings
1 Real Betis wins5 draws4 Real Madrid wins
Goals per game0.50 – 1.20
Over 2.530%
Both scored40%
Clean sheets40% · 60%
- 4 Jan 2026Real Madrid5–1Real Betis
- 1 Mar 2025Real Betis2–1Real Madrid
- 1 Sep 2024Real Madrid2–0Real Betis
- 25 May 2024Real Madrid0–0Real Betis
- 9 Dec 2023Real Betis1–1Real Madrid
- 5 Mar 2023Real Betis0–0Real Madrid
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Real Betis | Real Madrid | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.50 | 2.09 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.25 | 0.94 | |
| Match goals | 2.75 | 3.03 | 2.81 |
| Over 1.5 | 88% | 88% | |
| Over 2.5 | 47% | 63% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 25% | 28% | |
| Both teams scored | 66% | 59% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 28% | 34% | |
| Failed to score | 13% | 9% | |
| Games | 32 | 32 |
| Real Betis | Real Madrid | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.30 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.40 | 1.20 | |
| Match goals | 2.70 | 3.20 | 2.81 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 70% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 80% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Real Betis | Real Madrid | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.19 | 6.34 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.06 | 3.72 | |
| Match total | 9.25 | 10.06 | 9.60 |
| Over 8.5 | 55% 17/31 | 72% 21/29 | |
| Over 9.5 | 45% 14/31 | 59% 17/29 | |
| Over 10.5 | 26% 8/31 | 41% 12/29 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.97 | 1.84 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.59 | 2.59 | |
| Match total | 4.56 | 4.43 | 4.55 |
| Over 3.5 | 66% 21/32 | 50% 16/32 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 16/32 | 41% 13/32 | |
| Real Betis | Real Madrid | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.00 | 5.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.50 | 5.70 | |
| Match total | 7.50 | 11.20 | 9.60 |
| Over 8.5 | 30% 3/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 30% 3/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.50 | 1.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.60 | 2.40 | |
| Match total | 5.10 | 4.10 | 4.55 |
| Over 3.5 | 90% 9/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Cesar Soto Grado Spain · 42 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.62league 4.28
Red cards0.29league 0.28
Cards 5+55%league 48%
Fouls23.6league 24.5
Penalties0.31league 0.37
Home wins45%league 49%
Real Betis4 with this referee
Record0-2-2
Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.8
Pens for · against0 · 3
- L3 Mar 24A · Atletico Madrid1–22
- D9 Dec 23H · Real Madrid1–12
- D21 Oct 23A · Getafe1–12
- L27 Aug 23A · Athletic Club2–42
Real Madrid6 with this referee
Record5-1-0
Cards · opp.2.2 · 2.5
Pens for · against3 · 0
- W24 Jan 26A · Villarreal2–01
- W26 Oct 25H · Barcelona2–12
- W21 Apr 24H · Barcelona3–23
- W27 Jan 24A · Las Palmas2–13
- D9 Dec 23A · Real Betis1–11
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Real Betis32 games · scored 48 · conceded 40
4
10
0-15
10
5
16-30
7
8
31-45
8
6
46-60
9
5
61-75
10
6
76-90
Real Madrid32 games · scored 67 · conceded 30
5
1
0-15
9
3
16-30
14
7
31-45
13
6
46-60
9
6
61-75
17
7
76-90
Real Betis10 games · scored 13 · conceded 14
3
3
0-15
2
2
16-30
1
4
31-45
2
2
46-60
4
2
61-75
1
1
76-90
Real Madrid10 games · scored 22 · conceded 15
2
1
0-15
5
1
16-30
4
5
31-45
4
1
46-60
3
2
61-75
4
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
