Real Madrid
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Real Madrid were clear favourites.
Real Madrid were the stronger side on L90 Strength (88 vs 44). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Alaves. Real Madrid had 11 days of rest, Alaves 10.3 and had to travel 284 km.
Away travel284 kmRest days11 · 10.3Matches / 14d1 · 1
Real Madrid73%
Draw17%
Alaves10%
Real Madrid75%
Draw16%
Alaves8%
Real Madrid73%
Draw17%
Alaves10%
Real Madrid66%
Draw20%
Alaves14%
Real Madrid73%
Draw16%
Alaves10%
Over 2.5 65%
Both score 53%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Madrid)
No weather data yet
Referee · SpainJuan Martinez Munuera
- Cards per match 4.6
- Penalties per match 0.40
- Matches 43
Team strength
Real Madrid
Alaves
88
L90 StrengthIn forecast
44
89
Current StrengthIn forecast
48
89
AttackIn forecast
48
85
DefenceIn forecast
55
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAlaves
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Real MadridAlaves
2.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.13
0.94
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.48
2.00
xGVia Att/Def
1.17
1.00
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.24
+0.10
Goals minus xGContext
-0.04
90%
Scored inContext
68%
35%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
17.65
ShotsContext
11.87
6.74
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.10
38%
On target shareContext
32%
11.10
Shots in the boxContext
7.83
63%
Box shareContext
65%
12%
ConversionContext
10%
2.25
OffsidesContext
2.36
9.71
Shots allowedContext
12.23
3.26
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.97
3.11
BlocksContext
4.10
2.27
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.57
69%
Save rateContext
63%
59%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
580
PassesContext
419
521
Accurate passesContext
339
90%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
7.10
Team ratingContext
6.74
10.16
FoulsContext
15.00
13.19
Fouls sufferedContext
13.48
1.71
Yellow cardsContext
2.23
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
2.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.70
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.00
1.83
xGVia Att/Def
1.38
1.22
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.39
+0.17
Goals minus xGContext
+0.32
90%
Scored inContext
80%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
15.70
ShotsContext
12.90
6.80
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.67
43%
On target shareContext
33%
10.40
Shots in the boxContext
8.90
66%
Box shareContext
67%
13%
ConversionContext
13%
2.13
OffsidesContext
1.33
12.40
Shots allowedContext
12.10
4.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.40
3.67
BlocksContext
4.10
3.33
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.50
70%
Save rateContext
57%
54%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
526
PassesContext
406
470
Accurate passesContext
327
89%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.98
Team ratingContext
6.73
9.90
FoulsContext
15.70
12.40
Fouls sufferedContext
13.20
1.80
Yellow cardsContext
2.50
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Real Madrid
Rest11 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Alaves
Rest10.3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel284 km153 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Real Madrid |
Alaves |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 11La Liga 2025-2026, 10 Apr | 10.3La Liga 2025-2026, 11 Apr |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 284 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 153 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 2 | 0 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 3 | 3.7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Real Madrid
Confirmed XI
13A. Lunin(G)
18Álvaro Fernández
24D. Huijsen
3Éder Militão
12T. Alexander-Arnold
15A. Güler
14A. Tchouaméni
5J. Bellingham
8F. Valverde
7Vinícius
10K. Mbappé
Alaves
Confirmed XI
1Antonio Sivera(G)
3Youssef Lekhedim
24Víctor Parada
14F. Tenaglia
17Jonny
7Ángel Pérez
4Denis Suárez
8Antonio Blanco
18Jon Guridi
15L. Boyé
11Toni Martínez
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Real Madrid
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Alaves
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Real Madrid-0.2 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Alaves+0.2 pp
Home / Away this season
Real Madrid · Home
2.50points per game · 16 home games
- W-D-L
- 13-1-2
- Scored
- 2.31
- Conceded
- 0.81
Alaves · Away
0.75points per game · 16 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-3-10
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.75
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Real Madrid | Alaves |
|---|---|---|
| Girona | D 1–1 HD 1–1 A | D 2–2 HL 0–1 A |
| Mallorca | L 1–2 AW 2–1 H | L 0–1 A |
| Atletico Madrid | W 3–2 HL 2–5 A | L 0–1 AD 1–1 H |
| Elche | W 4–1 HD 2–2 A | W 3–1 H |
| Celta Vigo | W 2–1 AL 0–2 H | W 4–3 AL 0–1 H |
| Getafe | L 0–1 HW 1–0 A | L 0–2 HD 1–1 A |
| Osasuna | L 1–2 AW 1–0 H | D 2–2 HL 0–3 A |
| Real Sociedad | W 4–1 HW 2–1 A | D 3–3 AW 1–0 H |
| Valencia | W 2–0 AW 4–0 H | L 2–3 AD 0–0 H |
| Rayo Vallecano | W 2–1 HD 0–0 A | L 0–1 A |
| Villarreal | W 2–0 AW 3–1 H | D 1–1 HL 1–3 A |
| Levante | W 2–0 HW 4–1 A | L 0–2 AW 2–1 H |
| Real Betis | W 5–1 H | W 2–1 HL 0–1 A |
| Sevilla | W 2–0 H | D 1–1 AL 1–2 H |
| Athletic Club | W 3–0 A | W 1–0 A |
| Barcelona | W 2–1 H | L 1–3 A |
| Espanyol | W 2–0 H | W 2–1 AW 2–1 H |
| Oviedo | W 3–0 A | D 1–1 H |
| Points | 67 of 90 · 2.23 per game | 33 of 90 · 1.10 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings
8 Real Madrid wins0 draws1 Alaves wins
Goals per game2.67 – 0.78
Over 2.578%
Both scored56%
Clean sheets44% · 0%
- 14 Dec 2025Alaves1–2Real Madrid
- 13 Apr 2025Alaves0–1Real Madrid
- 24 Sep 2024Real Madrid3–2Alaves
- 14 May 2024Real Madrid5–0Alaves
- 21 Dec 2023Alaves0–1Real Madrid
- 19 Feb 2022Real Madrid3–0Alaves
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Real Madrid | Alaves | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.10 | 1.13 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.94 | 1.48 | |
| Match goals | 3.03 | 2.61 | 3.33 |
| Over 1.5 | 87% | 71% | |
| Over 2.5 | 61% | 48% | 65% |
| Over 3.5 | 29% | 26% | |
| Both teams scored | 58% | 61% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 35% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 32% | |
| Games | 31 | 31 |
| Real Madrid | Alaves | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.00 | 1.70 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.20 | 2.00 | |
| Match goals | 3.20 | 3.70 | 3.33 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 60% | 65% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 80% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Real Madrid | Alaves | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.25 | 4.96 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.64 | 4.86 | |
| Match total | 9.89 | 9.82 | 9.59 |
| Over 8.5 | 71% 20/28 | 61% 17/28 | |
| Over 9.5 | 57% 16/28 | 50% 14/28 | |
| Over 10.5 | 39% 11/28 | 46% 13/28 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.87 | 2.39 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.65 | 2.26 | |
| Match total | 4.52 | 4.65 | 4.55 |
| Over 3.5 | 52% 16/31 | 74% 23/31 | |
| Over 4.5 | 42% 13/31 | 52% 16/31 | |
| Real Madrid | Alaves | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.60 | 4.44 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.30 | 5.22 | |
| Match total | 10.90 | 9.66 | 9.59 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 70% 7/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 60% 6/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.10 | 2.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.90 | 2.80 | |
| Match total | 5.00 | 5.60 | 4.55 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 90% 9/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Juan Martinez Munuera Spain · 43 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.37league 4.28
Red cards0.21league 0.28
Cards 5+44%league 48%
Fouls26.1league 24.5
Penalties0.40league 0.36
Home wins47%league 49%
Real Madrid6 with this referee
Record4-2-0
Cards · opp.1.8 · 2.5
Pens for · against1 · 0
- D9 Nov 25A · Rayo Vallecano0–02
- W20 Sep 25H · Espanyol2–02
- W20 Apr 25H · Athletic Club1–01
- W16 Mar 24A · Osasuna4–22
- W10 Feb 24H · Girona4–01
Alaves5 with this referee
Record0-1-4
Cards · opp.2.2 · 2.4
Pens for · against0 · 3
- L8 Feb 26H · Getafe0–22
- L22 Nov 25H · Celta Vigo0–12
- D3 May 25H · Atletico Madrid0–03
- L3 Feb 24H · Barcelona1–32
- L28 Aug 23A · Getafe0–12
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Real Madrid31 games · scored 65 · conceded 29
5
1
0-15
8
3
16-30
14
7
31-45
12
6
46-60
9
6
61-75
17
6
76-90
Alaves31 games · scored 35 · conceded 46
7
6
0-15
3
7
16-30
6
4
31-45
4
9
46-60
6
7
61-75
9
13
76-90
Real Madrid10 games · scored 20 · conceded 15
2
1
0-15
4
1
16-30
4
6
31-45
3
1
46-60
3
2
61-75
4
4
76-90
Alaves10 games · scored 17 · conceded 20
3
3
0-15
2
3
16-30
3
3
31-45
2
3
46-60
3
2
61-75
4
6
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
