Real Madrid vs Barcelona – 26 Oct 2025

La Liga Gameweek 10 Sun, Oct 26 · 15:15 Estadio Santiago Bernabéu, Madrid

Real Madrid 1st · 24 pts · 9 played WWLWW

2–1Full time

Barcelona 2nd · 22 pts · 9 played WWWLW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Real Madrid were slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Absences weigh more on Barcelona. Real Madrid had 6.8 days of rest, Barcelona 8 and had to travel 504 km.

Away travel504 kmRest days6.8 · 8Matches / 14d1 · 1

Real Madrid46%

Draw26%

Barcelona28%

Expected goals 1.62 – 1.22

Real Madrid44%

Draw27%

Barcelona29%

Expected goals 1.51 – 1.18

Real Madrid44%

Draw26%

Barcelona30%

Expected goals 1.55 – 1.22

Real Madrid38%

Draw26%

Barcelona35%

Expected goals 1.45 – 1.37

Real Madrid46%

Draw26%

Barcelona28%

Expected goals 1.59 – 1.18

Over 2.5 54% Both score 57% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Madrid)

No weather data yet

Referee · SpainCesar Soto Grado

Cards per match 5.1
Penalties per match 0.21
Matches 29

Team strength

Real Madrid

Barcelona

90 L90 StrengthIn forecast 89

89 Current StrengthIn forecast 93

89 AttackIn forecast 97

85 DefenceIn forecast 92

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Real Madrid

Attack—

Defense risk—

Barcelona

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Real Madrid

Barcelona

2.22 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.67

1.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.11

2.06 xGVia Att/Def 2.14

1.03 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.24

+0.16 Goals minus xGContext +0.53

100% Scored inContext 100%

44% Clean sheetsContext 33%

18.56 ShotsContext 20.67

6.67 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 8.11

36% On target shareContext 39%

11.33 Shots in the boxContext 12.56

61% Box shareContext 62%

12% ConversionContext 13%

1.86 OffsidesContext 2.43

9.33 Shots allowedContext 7.44

3.43 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.33

4.29 BlocksContext 2.29

1.86 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.22

54% Save rateContext 67%

64% PossessionIn forecast 71%

615 PassesContext 634

553 Accurate passesContext 570

90% Pass accuracyContext 90%

7.18 Team ratingContext 7.06

11.11 FoulsContext 11.00

12.78 Fouls sufferedContext 11.89

1.67 Yellow cardsContext 1.22

0.11 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 9 and 9 games

2.40 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.70

1.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.20

2.42 xGVia Att/Def 2.02

1.00 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.26

-0.02 Goals minus xGContext +0.68

100% Scored inContext 100%

40% Clean sheetsContext 20%

19.70 ShotsContext 18.20

8.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 7.10

41% On target shareContext 39%

12.70 Shots in the boxContext 12.00

64% Box shareContext 67%

12% ConversionContext 15%

1.63 OffsidesContext 2.14

11.30 Shots allowedContext 8.30

3.67 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.80

3.90 BlocksContext 2.63

2.33 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.60

64% Save rateContext 68%

62% PossessionIn forecast 67%

573 PassesContext 599

510 Accurate passesContext 534

89% Pass accuracyContext 89%

7.16 Team ratingContext 7.10

11.00 FoulsContext 10.30

13.20 Fouls sufferedContext 12.40

1.70 Yellow cardsContext 1.80

0.20 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Real Madrid

Rest6.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km25 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Barcelona

Rest8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel504 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Real Madrid	Barcelona
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	6.8La Liga 2025-2026, 19 Oct	8La Liga 2025-2026, 18 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	504 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	25 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 1 / 2	0 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	6.2	7.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Real Madrid Confirmed XI

4-1-4-1

1T. Courtois(G)

18Álvaro Fernández 24D. Huijsen 3Éder Militão 8F. Valverde

14A. Tchouaméni

7Vinícius 15A. Güler 6E. Camavinga 5J. Bellingham

10K. Mbappé

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Barcelona Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

25W. Szczęsny(G)

3Alejandro Balde 24Eric García 5Pau Cubarsí 23J. Koundé

8Pedri 21F. de Jong

14M. Rashford 16Fermín López 10Lamine Yamal

7Ferran Torres

+6 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Real Madrid Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Barcelona Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.08 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Real Madrid+1.9 pp
Draw-0.6 pp
Barcelona-1.3 pp

Home / Away this season

Real Madrid · Home 3.00points per game · 4 home games

W-D-L: 4-0-0
Scored: 2.00
Conceded: 0.50

Barcelona · Away 2.00points per game · 5 away games

W-D-L: 3-1-1
Scored: 2.20
Conceded: 1.60

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 5 this season

Opponent	Real Madrid	Barcelona
Getafe	W 1–0 A	W 3–0 H
Levante	W 4–1 A	W 3–2 A
Real Sociedad	W 2–1 A	W 2–1 H
Mallorca	W 2–1 H	W 3–0 A
Oviedo	W 3–0 A	W 3–1 A
Points	15 of 15 · 3.00 per game	15 of 15 · 3.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings

6 Real Madrid wins0 draws4 Barcelona wins

Goals per game1.90 – 2.10 Over 2.5100% Both scored80% Clean sheets0% · 20%

11 May 2025Barcelona4–3Real Madrid
26 Oct 2024Real Madrid0–4Barcelona
21 Apr 2024Real Madrid3–2Barcelona
28 Oct 2023Barcelona1–2Real Madrid
19 Mar 2023Barcelona2–1Real Madrid
16 Oct 2022Real Madrid3–1Barcelona

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Real Madrid	Barcelona	Forecast
Scored per game	2.22	2.67
Conceded per game	1.00	1.11
Match goals	3.22	3.78	2.84
Over 1.5	78%	100%
Over 2.5	67%	89%	54%
Over 3.5	33%	44%
Both teams scored	56%	67%	57%
Clean sheets	44%	33%
Failed to score	0%	0%
Games	9	9

	Real Madrid	Barcelona	Forecast
Scored per game	2.22	2.67
Conceded per game	1.00	1.11
Match goals	3.22	3.78	2.84
Over 1.5	78%	100%
Over 2.5	67%	89%	54%
Over 3.5	33%	44%
Both teams scored	56%	67%	57%
Clean sheets	44%	33%
Failed to score	0%	0%
Games	9	9

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Real Madrid	Barcelona	League
Corners
Corners won	4.71	7.00
Corners conceded	4.14	4.63
Match total	8.85	11.63	9.80
Over 8.5	57% 4/7	88% 7/8
Over 9.5	29% 2/7	63% 5/8
Over 10.5	14% 1/7	63% 5/8
Cards
Cards	1.78	1.22
Opponent cards	2.33	3.22
Match total	4.11	4.44	4.39
Over 3.5	44% 4/9	56% 5/9
Over 4.5	33% 3/9	44% 4/9

	Real Madrid	Barcelona	League
Corners
Corners won	5.78	6.50
Corners conceded	4.11	5.10
Match total	9.89	11.60	9.80
Over 8.5	56% 5/9	90% 9/10
Over 9.5	33% 3/9	70% 7/10
Over 10.5	33% 3/9	60% 6/10
Cards
Cards	1.90	1.80
Opponent cards	2.20	2.80
Match total	4.10	4.60	4.39
Over 3.5	50% 5/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	40% 4/10	60% 6/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Cesar Soto Grado Spain · 29 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.86league 4.11

Red cards0.28league 0.27

Cards 5+62%league 46%

Fouls24.0league 24.8

Penalties0.21league 0.32

Home wins45%league 45%

Real Madrid4 with this referee

Record3-1-0 Cards · opp.2.5 · 2.3 Pens for · against1 · 0

W21 Apr 24H · Barcelona3–23
W27 Jan 24A · Las Palmas2–13
D9 Dec 23A · Real Betis1–11
W17 Sep 23H · Real Sociedad2–13

Barcelona4 with this referee

Record1-2-1 Cards · opp.2.0 · 4.8 Pens for · against0 · 1 Reds1

W15 May 25A · Espanyol2–02
L21 Apr 24A · Real Madrid2–32
D8 Oct 23A · Granada CF2–21
D13 Aug 23A · Getafe0–03

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.