Real Madrid vs Espanyol – 20 Sep 2025

La Liga Gameweek 5 Sat, Sep 20 · 15:15 Estadio Santiago Bernabéu, Madrid

Real Madrid 1st · 12 pts · 4 played WWWW

2–0Full time

Espanyol 3rd · 10 pts · 4 played WDWW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Real Madrid were clear favourites.

Real Madrid were the stronger side on L90 Strength (89 vs 53). Real Madrid usually keep the ball (56% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. Real Madrid had 7 days of rest, Espanyol 4.8 and had to travel 497 km.

Away travel497 kmRest days7 · 4.8Matches / 14d1 · 1

Real Madrid72%

Draw18%

Espanyol10%

Expected goals 2.26 – 0.71

Real Madrid73%

Draw17%

Espanyol10%

Expected goals 2.38 – 0.75

Real Madrid72%

Draw18%

Espanyol9%

Expected goals 2.24 – 0.69

Real Madrid65%

Draw21%

Espanyol13%

Expected goals 2.02 – 0.79

Real Madrid73%

Draw17%

Espanyol10%

Expected goals 2.40 – 0.77

Over 2.5 57% Both score 46% Likeliest score 2–0

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Madrid)

No weather data yet

Referee · SpainJuan Martinez Munuera

Cards per match 4.6
Penalties per match 0.46
Matches 26

Team strength

Real Madrid

Espanyol

89 L90 StrengthIn forecast 53

89 Current StrengthIn forecast 44

89 AttackIn forecast 36

85 DefenceIn forecast 51

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Real Madrid

Attack—

Defense risk—

Espanyol

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Real Madrid

Espanyol

2.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.00

0.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.25

2.01 xGVia Att/Def 1.66

0.95 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.30

-0.01 Goals minus xGContext +0.34

100% Scored inContext 100%

50% Clean sheetsContext 25%

19.00 ShotsContext 10.50

6.75 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.75

36% On target shareContext 36%

11.00 Shots in the boxContext 6.00

59% Box shareContext 60%

11% ConversionContext 19%

2.33 OffsidesContext 1.50

10.00 Shots allowedContext 15.25

4.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 6.00

7.00 BlocksContext 4.00

2.67 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.75

67% Save rateContext 79%

58% PossessionIn forecast 41%

567 PassesContext 349

507 Accurate passesContext 274

89% Pass accuracyContext 79%

7.22 Team ratingContext 6.88

9.00 FoulsContext 12.75

10.75 Fouls sufferedContext 14.25

1.25 Yellow cardsContext 2.25

0.25 Red cardsContext 0.25

This league season, per match · 4 and 4 games

2.20 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.30

1.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.50

2.35 xGVia Att/Def 1.44

1.22 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.19

-0.15 Goals minus xGContext -0.14

100% Scored inContext 70%

40% Clean sheetsContext 20%

20.10 ShotsContext 10.50

8.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.30

40% On target shareContext 31%

11.90 Shots in the boxContext 6.20

61% Box shareContext 62%

11% ConversionContext 12%

2.25 OffsidesContext 2.43

10.90 Shots allowedContext 14.60

4.11 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.50

4.29 BlocksContext 4.20

2.78 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.20

68% Save rateContext 76%

56% PossessionIn forecast 43%

551 PassesContext 349

495 Accurate passesContext 279

90% Pass accuracyContext 80%

7.26 Team ratingContext 6.85

8.40 FoulsContext 12.20

11.30 Fouls sufferedContext 13.10

1.40 Yellow cardsContext 1.90

0.20 Red cardsContext 0.20

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Real Madrid

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km705 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Espanyol

Rest4.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel497 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Real Madrid	Espanyol
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7La Liga 2025-2026, 13 Sep	4.8La Liga 2025-2026, 15 Sep
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	497 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	705 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 1 / 3	1 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	3.2	3.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Real Madrid Confirmed XI

4-4-2

1T. Courtois(G)

18Álvaro Fernández 3Éder Militão 17Raúl Asencio 2Dani Carvajal

7Vinícius 14A. Tchouaméni 8F. Valverde 30Franco Mastantuono

10K. Mbappé 16Gonzalo García

+6 more reported missing outside this XI

Espanyol Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

13M. Dmitrović(G)

22Carlos Romero 6L. Cabrera 5F. Calero Villa 23O. El Hilali

10Pol Lozano 4Urko González

7Javi Puado 8Edu Expósito 24T. Dolan

9R. Fernández Jaén

+2 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Real Madrid Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Espanyol Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Real Madrid-0.2 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Espanyol+0.2 pp

Home / Away this season

Real Madrid · Home 3.00points per game · 2 home games

W-D-L: 2-0-0
Scored: 1.50
Conceded: 0.50

Espanyol · Away 1.00points per game · 1 away games

W-D-L: 0-1-0
Scored: 2.00
Conceded: 2.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 3 this season

Opponent	Real Madrid	Espanyol
Real Sociedad	W 2–1 A	D 2–2 A
Mallorca	W 2–1 H	W 3–2 H
Osasuna	W 1–0 H	W 1–0 H
Points	9 of 9 · 3.00 per game	7 of 9 · 2.33 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings

4 Real Madrid wins0 draws2 Espanyol wins

Goals per game2.50 – 1.00 Over 2.583% Both scored67% Clean sheets17% · 17%

1 Feb 2025Espanyol1–0Real Madrid
21 Sep 2024Real Madrid4–1Espanyol
11 Mar 2023Real Madrid3–1Espanyol
28 Aug 2022Espanyol1–3Real Madrid
30 Apr 2022Real Madrid4–0Espanyol
3 Oct 2021Espanyol2–1Real Madrid

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Real Madrid	Espanyol	Forecast
Scored per game	2.00	2.00
Conceded per game	0.50	1.25
Match goals	2.50	3.25	2.97
Over 1.5	75%	75%
Over 2.5	75%	75%	57%
Over 3.5	0%	50%
Both teams scored	50%	75%	46%
Clean sheets	50%	25%
Failed to score	0%	0%
Games	4	4

	Real Madrid	Espanyol	Forecast
Scored per game	2.00	2.00
Conceded per game	0.50	1.25
Match goals	2.50	3.25	2.97
Over 1.5	75%	75%
Over 2.5	75%	75%	57%
Over 3.5	0%	50%
Both teams scored	50%	75%	46%
Clean sheets	50%	25%
Failed to score	0%	0%
Games	4	4

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Real Madrid	Espanyol	League
Corners
Corners won	5.67	2.00
Corners conceded	6.00	5.00
Match total	11.67	7.00	9.56
Over 8.5	100% 3/3	25% 1/4
Over 9.5	67% 2/3	25% 1/4
Over 10.5	33% 1/3	25% 1/4
Cards
Cards	1.50	2.50
Opponent cards	1.25	2.25
Match total	2.75	4.75	4.24
Over 3.5	25% 1/4	100% 4/4
Over 4.5	0% 0/4	50% 2/4

	Real Madrid	Espanyol	League
Corners
Corners won	6.25	3.50
Corners conceded	5.25	5.50
Match total	11.50	9.00	9.56
Over 8.5	88% 7/8	60% 6/10
Over 9.5	75% 6/8	40% 4/10
Over 10.5	50% 4/8	30% 3/10
Cards
Cards	1.60	2.10
Opponent cards	1.70	1.90
Match total	3.30	4.00	4.24
Over 3.5	30% 3/10	70% 7/10
Over 4.5	20% 2/10	40% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Juan Martinez Munuera Spain · 26 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.42league 3.91

Red cards0.19league 0.28

Cards 5+42%league 40%

Fouls25.3league 24.4

Penalties0.46league 0.33

Home wins54%league 47%

Real Madrid4 with this referee

Record3-1-0 Cards · opp.1.8 · 3.0 Pens for · against1 · 0

W20 Apr 25H · Athletic Club1–01
W16 Mar 24A · Osasuna4–22
W10 Feb 24H · Girona4–01
D5 Nov 23H · Rayo Vallecano0–03

Espanyol

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.