Real Madrid
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Real Madrid were clear favourites.
Real Madrid were the stronger side on L90 Strength (89 vs 49). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Girona. Real Madrid had 6.2 days of rest, Girona 4 and had to travel 573 km.
Away travel573 kmRest days6.2 · 4Matches / 14d1 · 1
Real Madrid70%
Draw18%
Girona11%
Real Madrid74%
Draw17%
Girona9%
Real Madrid70%
Draw19%
Girona12%
Real Madrid63%
Draw21%
Girona16%
Real Madrid71%
Draw18%
Girona11%
Over 2.5 62%
Both score 52%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Madrid)
No weather data yet
Referee · SpainFrancisco Hernandez Maeso
- Cards per match 4.2
- Penalties per match 0.41
- Matches 32
Team strength
Real Madrid
Girona
89
L90 StrengthIn forecast
49
89
Current StrengthIn forecast
45
89
AttackIn forecast
49
85
DefenceIn forecast
64
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisGirona
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Real MadridGirona
2.13
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.07
0.93
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.47
1.99
xGVia Att/Def
1.15
1.02
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.53
+0.14
Goals minus xGContext
-0.08
90%
Scored inContext
73%
37%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
17.50
ShotsContext
10.20
6.67
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.00
38%
On target shareContext
38%
10.87
Shots in the boxContext
6.70
62%
Box shareContext
66%
12%
ConversionContext
11%
2.22
OffsidesContext
2.52
9.70
Shots allowedContext
14.87
3.31
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.04
3.11
BlocksContext
3.63
2.32
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.68
69%
Save rateContext
73%
59%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
580
PassesContext
458
521
Accurate passesContext
392
90%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
7.10
Team ratingContext
6.80
10.20
FoulsContext
10.53
13.20
Fouls sufferedContext
14.03
1.70
Yellow cardsContext
2.03
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.13
1.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.20
1.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
1.66
xGVia Att/Def
1.35
1.36
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.29
+0.24
Goals minus xGContext
-0.15
90%
Scored inContext
80%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
15.20
ShotsContext
12.40
6.30
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.00
41%
On target shareContext
36%
9.60
Shots in the boxContext
8.30
63%
Box shareContext
67%
13%
ConversionContext
10%
2.13
OffsidesContext
2.38
11.90
Shots allowedContext
13.60
4.10
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.11
3.67
BlocksContext
4.00
3.33
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.22
77%
Save rateContext
83%
56%
PossessionIn forecast
55%
552
PassesContext
514
495
Accurate passesContext
448
90%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.96
Team ratingContext
6.87
10.30
FoulsContext
9.80
13.10
Fouls sufferedContext
12.90
1.90
Yellow cardsContext
1.80
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Real Madrid
Rest6.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km1,098 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Girona
Rest4 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel573 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Real Madrid |
Girona |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.2La Liga 2025-2026, 4 Apr | 4La Liga 2025-2026, 6 Apr |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 573 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,098 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 3 | 1 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 11 | 11 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Real Madrid
Confirmed XI
13A. Lunin(G)
20Fran García
17Raúl Asencio
3Éder Militão
2Dani Carvajal
21Brahim Díaz
6E. Camavinga
5J. Bellingham
8F. Valverde
7Vinícius
10K. Mbappé
Girona
Confirmed XI
13P. Gazzaniga(G)
24Álex Moreno
12Vitor Reis
16Alejandro Francés
4Arnau Martínez
20A. Witsel
23Iván Martín
18A. Ounahi
11T. Lemar
15V. Tsyhankov
14C. Echeverri
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Real Madrid
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Girona
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Real Madrid+0.7 pp
- Draw-0.4 pp
- Girona-0.3 pp
Home / Away this season
Real Madrid · Home
2.60points per game · 15 home games
- W-D-L
- 13-0-2
- Scored
- 2.40
- Conceded
- 0.80
Girona · Away
1.00points per game · 15 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-6-6
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.53
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Real Madrid | Girona |
|---|---|---|
| Mallorca | L 1–2 AW 2–1 H | W 2–1 A |
| Atletico Madrid | W 3–2 HL 2–5 A | L 0–3 H |
| Elche | W 4–1 HD 2–2 A | L 0–3 A |
| Celta Vigo | W 2–1 AL 0–2 H | L 1–2 HD 1–1 A |
| Getafe | L 0–1 HW 1–0 A | D 1–1 HL 1–2 A |
| Osasuna | L 1–2 AW 1–0 H | L 0–1 AW 1–0 H |
| Real Sociedad | W 4–1 HW 2–1 A | W 2–1 A |
| Valencia | W 2–0 AW 4–0 H | W 2–1 H |
| Rayo Vallecano | W 2–1 HD 0–0 A | L 1–3 H |
| Villarreal | W 2–0 AW 3–1 H | W 1–0 HL 0–5 A |
| Levante | W 2–0 HW 4–1 A | D 1–1 AL 0–4 H |
| Real Betis | W 5–1 H | D 1–1 A |
| Sevilla | W 2–0 H | D 1–1 AL 0–2 H |
| Alaves | W 2–1 A | D 2–2 AW 1–0 H |
| Athletic Club | W 3–0 A | W 3–0 HD 1–1 A |
| Barcelona | W 2–1 H | W 2–1 HL 1–2 A |
| Espanyol | W 2–0 H | W 2–0 AD 0–0 H |
| Oviedo | W 3–0 A | L 0–1 AD 3–3 H |
| Points | 68 of 87 · 2.34 per game | 36 of 87 · 1.24 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings
4 Real Madrid wins2 draws1 Girona wins
Goals per game2.29 – 0.86
Over 2.557%
Both scored43%
Clean sheets57% · 0%
- 30 Nov 2025Girona1–1Real Madrid
- 23 Feb 2025Real Madrid2–0Girona
- 7 Dec 2024Girona0–3Real Madrid
- 10 Feb 2024Real Madrid4–0Girona
- 30 Sep 2023Girona0–3Real Madrid
- 25 Apr 2023Girona4–2Real Madrid
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Real Madrid | Girona | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.13 | 1.07 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.93 | 1.47 | |
| Match goals | 3.07 | 2.53 | 3.20 |
| Over 1.5 | 87% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 63% | 50% | 62% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 17% | |
| Both teams scored | 57% | 57% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 37% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 27% | |
| Games | 30 | 30 |
| Real Madrid | Girona | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.10 | 1.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.10 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 3.20 | 2.20 | 3.20 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 40% | 62% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 10% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 60% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Real Madrid | Girona | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.11 | 4.36 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.74 | 4.96 | |
| Match total | 9.85 | 9.32 | 9.52 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 19/27 | 54% 15/28 | |
| Over 9.5 | 56% 15/27 | 43% 12/28 | |
| Over 10.5 | 37% 10/27 | 39% 11/28 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.87 | 2.23 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.70 | 1.83 | |
| Match total | 4.57 | 4.06 | 4.51 |
| Over 3.5 | 53% 16/30 | 40% 12/30 | |
| Over 4.5 | 43% 13/30 | 30% 9/30 | |
| Real Madrid | Girona | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.50 | 4.60 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.20 | 5.40 | |
| Match total | 10.70 | 10.00 | 9.52 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.10 | 1.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 3.00 | 2.20 | |
| Match total | 5.10 | 4.10 | 4.51 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Francisco Hernandez Maeso Spain · 32 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.03league 4.25
Red cards0.13league 0.28
Cards 5+44%league 47%
Fouls23.8league 24.5
Penalties0.41league 0.36
Home wins47%league 49%
Real Madrid3 with this referee
Record2-1-0
Cards · opp.1.3 · 3.7
Pens for · against3 · 1
- W14 Feb 26H · Real Sociedad4–11
- D23 Nov 25A · Elche2–20
- W21 Jan 24H · Almeria3–23
Girona4 with this referee
Record1-2-1
Cards · opp.1.3 · 2.3
Pens for · against1 · 0
- D26 Sep 25H · Espanyol0–00
- L3 Mar 24A · Mallorca0–10
- W18 Dec 23H · Alaves3–00
- D12 Aug 23A · Real Sociedad1–15
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Real Madrid30 games · scored 64 · conceded 28
5
1
0-15
8
3
16-30
14
7
31-45
11
6
46-60
9
5
61-75
17
6
76-90
Girona30 games · scored 32 · conceded 44
4
4
0-15
5
6
16-30
6
6
31-45
1
11
46-60
5
7
61-75
11
10
76-90
Real Madrid10 games · scored 19 · conceded 13
1
1
0-15
4
1
16-30
3
6
31-45
2
1
46-60
4
1
61-75
5
3
76-90
Girona10 games · scored 12 · conceded 10
2
1
0-15
16-30
3
31-45
4
46-60
2
2
61-75
5
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
