Real Madrid
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Real Madrid were clear favourites.
Real Madrid were the stronger side on L90 Strength (89 vs 46). Real Madrid usually keep the ball (61% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. Real Madrid had 6 days of rest, Mallorca 7.2 and had to travel 549 km.
Away travel549 kmRest days6 · 7.2Matches / 14d2 · 1
Real Madrid76%
Draw16%
Mallorca8%
Real Madrid76%
Draw16%
Mallorca8%
Real Madrid76%
Draw16%
Mallorca8%
Real Madrid69%
Draw20%
Mallorca11%
Real Madrid76%
Draw16%
Mallorca8%
Over 2.5 60%
Both score 45%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Madrid)
No weather data yet
Referee · SpainJose Maria Sanchez Martinez
- Cards per match 4.8
- Penalties per match 0.19
- Matches 37
Team strength
Real Madrid
Mallorca
89
L90 StrengthIn forecast
46
89
Current StrengthIn forecast
48
89
AttackIn forecast
50
85
DefenceIn forecast
59
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisMallorca
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Real MadridMallorca
2.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.50
0.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.00
1.95
xGVia Att/Def
0.49
0.46
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.31
+0.05
Goals minus xGContext
+0.01
100%
Scored inContext
50%
100%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
21.50
ShotsContext
8.00
7.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.50
33%
On target shareContext
31%
11.50
Shots in the boxContext
5.50
55%
Box shareContext
71%
9%
ConversionContext
6%
—
OffsidesContext
—
4.00
Shots allowedContext
15.50
—
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.50
—
BlocksContext
4.50
—
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
100%
Save rateContext
67%
68%
PossessionIn forecast
39%
709
PassesContext
328
653
Accurate passesContext
262
92%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
7.20
Team ratingContext
6.59
8.50
FoulsContext
10.00
10.00
Fouls sufferedContext
14.00
1.00
Yellow cardsContext
3.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.50
1.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.70
0.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.10
2.03
xGVia Att/Def
0.59
1.28
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.72
-0.13
Goals minus xGContext
+0.11
100%
Scored inContext
50%
60%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
19.40
ShotsContext
7.90
6.90
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.11
36%
On target shareContext
24%
11.20
Shots in the boxContext
5.63
60%
Box shareContext
67%
10%
ConversionContext
9%
2.25
OffsidesContext
1.67
9.50
Shots allowedContext
20.40
3.89
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.50
3.67
BlocksContext
6.00
2.89
Goalkeeper savesContext
5.40
74%
Save rateContext
83%
63%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
590
PassesContext
373
532
Accurate passesContext
298
90%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
7.29
Team ratingContext
6.96
8.90
FoulsContext
12.80
12.10
Fouls sufferedContext
11.10
1.30
Yellow cardsContext
2.30
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Real Madrid
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km744 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Mallorca
Rest7.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel549 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Real Madrid |
Mallorca |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6La Liga 2025-2026, 24 Aug | 7.2La Liga 2025-2026, 23 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 549 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 744 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 2 | 0 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 13.8 | 16 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Real Madrid
Confirmed XI
1T. Courtois(G)
18Álvaro Fernández
24D. Huijsen
3Éder Militão
12T. Alexander-Arnold
14A. Tchouaméni
8F. Valverde
7Vinícius
15A. Güler
30Franco Mastantuono
10K. Mbappé
Mallorca
Confirmed XI
1Leo Román(G)
3Toni Lato
4M. Kumbulla
21Raíllo
24M. Valjent
2Mateu Morey
20Pablo Torre
8Manu Morlanes
10Darder
7V. Muriqi
18Mateo Joseph
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Real Madrid
Absences are shown before kick-off
Mallorca
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Real Madrid+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Mallorca+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Real Madrid · Home
3.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-0
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 0.00
Mallorca · Away
No away games yet this season.
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings
6 Real Madrid wins1 draws1 Mallorca wins
Goals per game2.25 – 0.63
Over 2.550%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets38% · 13%
- 14 May 2025Real Madrid2–1Mallorca
- 18 Aug 2024Mallorca1–1Real Madrid
- 13 Apr 2024Mallorca0–1Real Madrid
- 3 Jan 2024Real Madrid1–0Mallorca
- 5 Feb 2023Mallorca1–0Real Madrid
- 11 Sep 2022Real Madrid4–1Mallorca
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Real Madrid | Mallorca | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.00 | 0.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.00 | 2.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.00 | 2.50 | 3.09 |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 50% | 60% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 50% | 45% |
| Clean sheets | 100% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 50% | |
| Games | 2 | 2 |
| Real Madrid | Mallorca | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.00 | 0.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.00 | 2.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.00 | 2.50 | 3.09 |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 50% | 60% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 50% | 45% |
| Clean sheets | 100% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 50% | |
| Games | 2 | 2 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Real Madrid | Mallorca | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 9.00 | 2.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 1.00 | 5.00 | |
| Match total | 10.00 | 7.50 | 9.17 |
| Over 8.5 | 100% 1/1 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Over 9.5 | 100% 1/1 | 0% 0/2 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/1 | 0% 0/2 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.00 | 4.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.50 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 2.50 | 6.50 | 3.67 |
| Over 3.5 | 0% 0/2 | 100% 2/2 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/2 | 100% 2/2 | |
| Real Madrid | Mallorca | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 7.50 | 2.78 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.88 | 7.22 | |
| Match total | 11.38 | 10.00 | 9.17 |
| Over 8.5 | 75% 6/8 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 75% 6/8 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 4/8 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.30 | 2.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 1.30 | |
| Match total | 3.30 | 3.80 | 3.67 |
| Over 3.5 | 30% 3/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Jose Maria Sanchez Martinez Spain · 37 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.43league 3.38
Red cards0.32league 0.23
Cards 5+46%league 27%
Fouls24.0league 23.8
Penalties0.19league 0.35
Home wins49%league 46%
Real Madrid5 with this referee
Record4-1-0
Cards · opp.0.6 · 2.6
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W23 Apr 25A · Getafe1–01
- W13 Apr 24A · Mallorca1–01
- D4 Feb 24H · Atletico Madrid1–10
- W11 Nov 23H · Valencia5–11
- W19 Aug 23A · Almeria3–10
Mallorca1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L13 Apr 24H · Real Madrid0–12
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Real Madrid2 games · scored 4 · conceded 0
0-15
16-30
1
31-45
1
46-60
61-75
2
76-90
Mallorca2 games · scored 1 · conceded 4
1
0-15
1
16-30
1
31-45
46-60
61-75
1
1
76-90
Real Madrid10 games · scored 19 · conceded 9
2
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
4
3
31-45
2
46-60
4
2
61-75
6
2
76-90
Mallorca10 games · scored 7 · conceded 11
1
3
0-15
2
1
16-30
1
31-45
2
2
46-60
2
61-75
2
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
