Real Madrid
Attack—
Defense risk—
Real Madrid
2nd · 51 pts · 21 played
WWWWW
2–1Full time
Rayo Vallecano
16th · 22 pts · 21 played
LDWLL
Our take
Real Madrid were clear favourites.
Real Madrid were the stronger side on L90 Strength (88 vs 46). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Rayo Vallecano. Real Madrid had 7.7 days of rest, Rayo Vallecano 8 and had to travel 0 km.
Away travel0 kmRest days7.7 · 8Matches / 14d1 · 2
Real Madrid76%
Draw15%
Rayo Vallecano9%
Real Madrid75%
Draw16%
Rayo Vallecano9%
Real Madrid75%
Draw16%
Rayo Vallecano9%
Real Madrid69%
Draw18%
Rayo Vallecano12%
Real Madrid76%
Draw15%
Rayo Vallecano9%
Over 2.5 67%
Both score 52%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Madrid)
No weather data yet
Referee · SpainIsidro Diaz de Mera Escuderos
- Cards per match 4.8
- Penalties per match 0.27
- Matches 33
Team strength
Real MadridRayo Vallecano
88
L90 StrengthIn forecast
46
89
Current StrengthIn forecast
58
89
AttackIn forecast
61
85
DefenceIn forecast
60
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisRayo Vallecano
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Real MadridRayo Vallecano
2.14
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.81
0.81
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.33
2.14
xGVia Att/Def
1.22
1.02
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.24
+0.00
Goals minus xGContext
-0.41
90%
Scored inContext
52%
48%
Clean sheetsContext
29%
18.81
ShotsContext
12.86
6.95
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.14
37%
On target shareContext
32%
11.62
Shots in the boxContext
7.29
62%
Box shareContext
57%
11%
ConversionContext
6%
1.94
OffsidesContext
2.44
9.71
Shots allowedContext
11.52
3.44
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.14
3.16
BlocksContext
3.33
2.39
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.89
69%
Save rateContext
66%
59%
PossessionIn forecast
55%
575
PassesContext
431
515
Accurate passesContext
358
90%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
7.17
Team ratingContext
6.75
10.48
FoulsContext
12.86
12.81
Fouls sufferedContext
10.95
1.57
Yellow cardsContext
2.48
0.05
Red cardsContext
0.14
2.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
1.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
2.06
xGVia Att/Def
1.13
1.35
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.09
+0.44
Goals minus xGContext
-0.13
90%
Scored inContext
60%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
17.60
ShotsContext
14.00
6.30
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.40
36%
On target shareContext
31%
11.50
Shots in the boxContext
7.20
66%
Box shareContext
52%
14%
ConversionContext
7%
1.50
OffsidesContext
2.44
11.50
Shots allowedContext
11.30
5.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.70
2.90
BlocksContext
2.70
3.78
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.22
76%
Save rateContext
57%
58%
PossessionIn forecast
59%
553
PassesContext
435
496
Accurate passesContext
360
90%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
7.19
Team ratingContext
6.71
10.30
FoulsContext
13.50
14.20
Fouls sufferedContext
12.40
2.20
Yellow cardsContext
2.80
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Real Madrid
Rest7.7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km621 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Rayo Vallecano
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km930 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Real Madrid |
Rayo Vallecano |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.7La Liga 2025-2026, 24 Jan | 8La Liga 2025-2026, 24 Jan |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 0 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 621 km | 930 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 0 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.3 | 14.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Real Madrid
Confirmed XI
1T. Courtois(G)
6E. Camavinga
24D. Huijsen
17Raúl Asencio
8F. Valverde
5J. Bellingham
14A. Tchouaméni
15A. Güler
30Franco Mastantuono
7Vinícius
10K. Mbappé
Rayo Vallecano
Confirmed XI
13A. Batalla(G)
3Pep Chavarría
32N. Mendy
24F. Lejeune
2A. Rațiu
15Gerard Gumbau
6P. Ciss
18Álvaro García
7Isi Palazón
12I. Akhomach
19Jorge de Frutos
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Real Madrid
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Rayo Vallecano
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.08 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Real Madrid+0.8 pp
- Draw-0.6 pp
- Rayo Vallecano-0.3 pp
Home / Away this season
Real Madrid · Home
2.70points per game · 10 home games
- W-D-L
- 9-0-1
- Scored
- 2.30
- Conceded
- 0.60
Rayo Vallecano · Away
0.91points per game · 11 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-1-7
- Scored
- 0.82
- Conceded
- 1.73
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Real Madrid | Rayo Vallecano |
|---|---|---|
| Villarreal | W 2–0 AW 3–1 H | L 0–4 A |
| Levante | W 2–0 HW 4–1 A | W 3–0 A |
| Real Betis | W 5–1 H | D 0–0 H |
| Sevilla | W 2–0 H | L 0–1 H |
| Alaves | W 2–1 A | W 1–0 H |
| Celta Vigo | L 0–2 H | L 0–3 AD 1–1 H |
| Athletic Club | W 3–0 A | L 0–1 A |
| Girona | D 1–1 A | W 3–1 A |
| Elche | D 2–2 A | L 0–4 A |
| Valencia | W 4–0 H | D 1–1 H |
| Barcelona | W 2–1 H | D 1–1 H |
| Getafe | W 1–0 A | D 1–1 H |
| Atletico Madrid | L 2–5 A | L 2–3 A |
| Espanyol | W 2–0 H | L 0–1 A |
| Real Sociedad | W 2–1 A | W 1–0 A |
| Mallorca | W 2–1 H | W 2–1 H |
| Oviedo | W 3–0 A | D 0–0 A |
| Osasuna | W 1–0 H | L 1–3 HL 0–2 A |
| Points | 50 of 60 · 2.50 per game | 21 of 60 · 1.05 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings
4 Real Madrid wins4 draws1 Rayo Vallecano wins
Goals per game1.44 – 1.11
Over 2.556%
Both scored67%
Clean sheets33% · 22%
- 9 Nov 2025Rayo Vallecano0–0Real Madrid
- 9 Mar 2025Real Madrid2–1Rayo Vallecano
- 14 Dec 2024Rayo Vallecano3–3Real Madrid
- 18 Feb 2024Rayo Vallecano1–1Real Madrid
- 5 Nov 2023Real Madrid0–0Rayo Vallecano
- 24 May 2023Real Madrid2–1Rayo Vallecano
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Real Madrid | Rayo Vallecano | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.14 | 0.81 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.81 | 1.33 | |
| Match goals | 2.95 | 2.14 | 3.45 |
| Over 1.5 | 86% | 62% | |
| Over 2.5 | 57% | 38% | 67% |
| Over 3.5 | 29% | 24% | |
| Both teams scored | 48% | 38% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 48% | 29% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 48% | |
| Games | 21 | 21 |
| Real Madrid | Rayo Vallecano | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.90 | 0.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.70 | 1.40 | |
| Match goals | 2.60 | 1.90 | 3.45 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 40% | 67% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 40% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 60% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Real Madrid | Rayo Vallecano | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.00 | 5.81 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.94 | 4.81 | |
| Match total | 9.94 | 10.62 | 9.56 |
| Over 8.5 | 72% 13/18 | 76% 16/21 | |
| Over 9.5 | 56% 10/18 | 57% 12/21 | |
| Over 10.5 | 39% 7/18 | 52% 11/21 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.71 | 2.71 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.43 | 2.05 | |
| Match total | 4.14 | 4.76 | 4.42 |
| Over 3.5 | 48% 10/21 | 71% 15/21 | |
| Over 4.5 | 38% 8/21 | 57% 12/21 | |
| Real Madrid | Rayo Vallecano | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.89 | 5.40 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.56 | 3.80 | |
| Match total | 10.45 | 9.20 | 9.56 |
| Over 8.5 | 89% 8/9 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 78% 7/9 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 67% 6/9 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.60 | 3.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.20 | 2.60 | |
| Match total | 4.80 | 5.70 | 4.42 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Isidro Diaz de Mera Escuderos Spain · 33 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.48league 4.15
Red cards0.27league 0.27
Cards 5+61%league 45%
Fouls26.9league 24.5
Penalties0.27league 0.36
Home wins30%league 47%
Real Madrid5 with this referee
Record4-1-0
Cards · opp.1.8 · 2.0
Pens for · against2 · 0
Reds1
- W23 Sep 25A · Levante4–11
- D25 May 24H · Real Betis0–02
- W25 Feb 24H · Sevilla1–01
- W21 Dec 23A · Alaves1–02
- W25 Aug 23A · Celta Vigo1–03
Rayo Vallecano2 with this referee
Record1-1-0
Cards · opp.3.5 · 4.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds1
- W15 May 24H · Granada CF2–15
- D7 Oct 23A · Sevilla2–22
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Real Madrid21 games · scored 45 · conceded 17
2
1
0-15
7
1
16-30
11
3
31-45
8
5
46-60
5
4
61-75
12
3
76-90
Rayo Vallecano21 games · scored 17 · conceded 28
2
3
0-15
3
3
16-30
5
3
31-45
1
5
46-60
3
5
61-75
3
9
76-90
Real Madrid10 games · scored 25 · conceded 11
2
0-15
5
16-30
2
4
31-45
8
2
46-60
2
3
61-75
6
2
76-90
Rayo Vallecano10 games · scored 10 · conceded 15
2
1
0-15
2
16-30
4
3
31-45
1
1
46-60
2
3
61-75
1
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
