Real Madrid
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Real Madrid were clear favourites.
Real Madrid were the stronger side on L90 Strength (89 vs 57). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Real Madrid. Real Madrid had 4 days of rest, Rayo Vallecano 7.1 and had to travel 0 km. Weather to note: warm.
Away travel0 kmRest days4 · 7.1Matches / 14d3 · 2
Real Madrid78%
Draw13%
Rayo Vallecano9%
Real Madrid70%
Draw18%
Rayo Vallecano12%
Real Madrid77%
Draw14%
Rayo Vallecano9%
Real Madrid71%
Draw16%
Rayo Vallecano12%
Real Madrid78%
Draw14%
Rayo Vallecano9%
Over 2.5 73%
Both score 56%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Madrid)
Warm
28°CClear
- Precipitation 0.0 mm
- Wind 3 km/h
- Humidity 23%
Referee · SpainVictor Garcia Verdura
- Cards per match 3.8
- Penalties per match 0.20
- Matches 44
Team strength
Real Madrid
Rayo Vallecano
89
L90 StrengthIn forecast
57
89
Current StrengthIn forecast
58
89
AttackIn forecast
61
85
DefenceIn forecast
60
89
Form indexContext
42
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisRayo Vallecano
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Real MadridRayo Vallecano
2.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.75
0.75
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.50
2.98
xGVia Att/Def
1.28
0.82
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.93
-0.48
Goals minus xGContext
+0.47
75%
Scored inContext
100%
25%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
20.00
ShotsContext
10.25
8.75
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.25
44%
On target shareContext
51%
14.50
Shots in the boxContext
6.50
73%
Box shareContext
66%
13%
ConversionContext
17%
1.67
OffsidesContext
1.75
10.50
Shots allowedContext
15.75
3.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.00
3.25
BlocksContext
3.75
2.25
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.75
75%
Save rateContext
55%
57%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
579
PassesContext
333
531
Accurate passesContext
257
92%
Pass accuracyContext
77%
7.19
Team ratingContext
6.66
9.00
FoulsContext
14.50
11.75
Fouls sufferedContext
11.75
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
2.25
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.50
2.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.40
0.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
2.09
xGVia Att/Def
1.24
0.83
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.61
+0.01
Goals minus xGContext
+0.16
80%
Scored inContext
90%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
16.20
ShotsContext
12.40
6.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.10
40%
On target shareContext
41%
11.80
Shots in the boxContext
7.56
74%
Box shareContext
58%
13%
ConversionContext
11%
2.44
OffsidesContext
1.78
11.90
Shots allowedContext
13.60
3.70
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.70
3.10
BlocksContext
4.20
3.33
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.30
86%
Save rateContext
70%
57%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
550
PassesContext
393
498
Accurate passesContext
317
90%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
7.09
Team ratingContext
6.86
9.50
FoulsContext
14.80
14.40
Fouls sufferedContext
10.80
1.90
Yellow cardsContext
2.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Real Madrid
WWWLW
Rest4 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel0 km781 km in 14d
Schedule load15%Low
Form 89 · 12 pts vs 6.1 for an average club · +1.3 vs expected
Rayo Vallecano
LDLW
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km1,008 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 42 · 4 pts vs 4.9 for an average club · -0.9 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Real Madrid |
Rayo Vallecano |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 15 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 4UEFA Champions League 2026-2027 - League phase, 8 Sep | 7.1La Liga 2026-2027, 5 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 0 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 781 km | 1,008 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 3 / 5 | 0 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 3 | 2.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Real Madrid
Confirmed XI
1T. Courtois(G)
18Álvaro Fernández
22A. Rüdiger
16I. Konaté
24D. Dumfries
20Bernardo Silva
8F. Valverde
7Vinícius
5J. Bellingham
25Y. Diomande
10K. Mbappé
Rayo Vallecano
Confirmed XI
25E. Audero(G)
17Adrià Pedrosa
6P. Ciss
24F. Lejeune
2A. Rațiu
8Unai López
36G. Bouare
18Álvaro García
4Pedro Díaz
14G. Tsitaishvili
10Sergio Camello
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Real Madrid
Absences are shown before kick-off
Rayo Vallecano
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Real Madrid+1.3 pp
- Draw-0.7 pp
- Rayo Vallecano-0.6 pp
Home / Away this season
Real Madrid · Home
3.00points per game · 2 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-0-0
- Scored
- 4.00
- Conceded
- 0.50
Rayo Vallecano · Away
0.00points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-2
- Scored
- 1.50
- Conceded
- 3.50
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings
5 Real Madrid wins4 draws1 Rayo Vallecano wins
Goals per game1.50 – 1.10
Over 2.560%
Both scored70%
Clean sheets30% · 20%
- 1 Feb 2026Real Madrid2–1Rayo Vallecano
- 9 Nov 2025Rayo Vallecano0–0Real Madrid
- 9 Mar 2025Real Madrid2–1Rayo Vallecano
- 14 Dec 2024Rayo Vallecano3–3Real Madrid
- 18 Feb 2024Rayo Vallecano1–1Real Madrid
- 5 Nov 2023Real Madrid0–0Rayo Vallecano
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Real Madrid | Rayo Vallecano | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.50 | 1.75 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.75 | 2.50 | |
| Match goals | 3.25 | 4.25 | 3.80 |
| Over 1.5 | 75% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 75% | 75% | 73% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 100% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 25% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 25% | 0% | |
| Games | 4 | 4 |
| Real Madrid | Rayo Vallecano | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.10 | 1.80 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.80 | 1.60 | |
| Match goals | 2.90 | 3.40 | 3.80 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 50% | 73% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 80% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 0% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Real Madrid | Rayo Vallecano | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 7.67 | 6.25 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.33 | 5.75 | |
| Match total | 14.00 | 12.00 | 10.14 |
| Over 8.5 | 100% 3/3 | 75% 3/4 | |
| Over 9.5 | 100% 3/3 | 75% 3/4 | |
| Over 10.5 | 100% 3/3 | 75% 3/4 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 2.75 | |
| Opponent cards | 3.25 | 2.25 | |
| Match total | 5.25 | 5.00 | 4.63 |
| Over 3.5 | 75% 3/4 | 50% 2/4 | |
| Over 4.5 | 75% 3/4 | 50% 2/4 | |
| Real Madrid | Rayo Vallecano | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.67 | 4.80 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.33 | 6.00 | |
| Match total | 11.00 | 10.80 | 10.14 |
| Over 8.5 | 78% 7/9 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 6/9 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 67% 6/9 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.90 | 2.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.50 | 1.90 | |
| Match total | 4.40 | 4.60 | 4.63 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Victor Garcia Verdura Spain · 44 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.59league 4.36
Red cards0.23league 0.27
Cards 5+39%league 51%
Fouls25.1league 25.0
Penalties0.20league 0.31
Home wins36%league 49%
Real Madrid1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.1.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W14 Dec 25A · Alaves2–11
Rayo Vallecano6 with this referee
Record3-3-0
Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.2
Pens for · against1 · 0
- D28 Feb 26H · Athletic Club1–12
- W26 Oct 25H · Alaves1–01
- D21 Sep 25H · Celta Vigo1–11
- W2 May 25H · Getafe1–03
- D11 Dec 23H · Celta Vigo0–03
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Real Madrid4 games · scored 10 · conceded 3
1
0-15
3
1
16-30
1
1
31-45
1
46-60
1
61-75
3
1
76-90
Rayo Vallecano4 games · scored 7 · conceded 10
2
1
0-15
1
3
16-30
1
31-45
3
2
46-60
1
61-75
3
76-90
Real Madrid10 games · scored 21 · conceded 8
4
1
0-15
4
2
16-30
3
2
31-45
3
46-60
2
61-75
5
3
76-90
Rayo Vallecano10 games · scored 14 · conceded 14
2
2
0-15
3
3
16-30
2
1
31-45
4
3
46-60
1
1
61-75
2
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
