Real Madrid
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Real Madrid77.8%fair odds 1.28
Draw13.8%fair odds 7.25
Rayo Vallecano8.4%fair odds 11.97
Expected goals2.90 – 0.90total 3.80
Likeliest score2–09.4%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Rayo Vallecano
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Real Madrid ↓ · Rayo Vallecano → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.6 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 8.5 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 9.1 | 8.2 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 6.6 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 3.8 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 3.0 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Real Madrid goals, columns Rayo Vallecano goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 2–09.4%10.60
- 3–09.1%10.97
- 2–18.5%11.81
- 3–18.2%12.22
- 4–06.6%15.13
- 1–06.2%16.13
- 1–16.1%16.26
- 4–15.9%16.86
- 5–03.8%26.09
- 2–23.8%26.32
Winning margin
37.8%
Real Madrid by 3+
fair 2.65
20.8%
Real Madrid by 2
fair 4.81
19.2%
Real Madrid by 1
fair 5.20
13.8%
Draw
fair 7.25
5.7%
Rayo Vallecano by 1
fair 17.41
2.0%
Rayo Vallecano by 2
fair 50.20
0.6%
Rayo Vallecano by 3+
fair 161.70
Goal distribution
Total goals
3%0
8%1
16%2
20%3
19%4
33%5+
Real Madrid goals
6%0
16%1
23%2
22%3
33%4+
Rayo Vallecano goals
41%0
37%1
16%2
5%3
1%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid win | 77.8% | 77.3% | +0.6 pp |
| Draw | 13.8% | 14.2% | -0.4 pp |
| Rayo Vallecano win | 8.4% | 8.6% | -0.2 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 73.1% | 72.1% | +0.9 pp |
| Both teams score | 56.3% | 55.9% | +0.4 pp |
| Expected goals Real Madrid | 2.90 | 2.85 | +0.05 |
| Expected goals Rayo Vallecano | 0.90 | 0.89 | +0.01 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Real Madrid win77.8%1.28
- Draw13.8%7.25
- Rayo Vallecano win8.4%11.97
- Double chance Real Madrid or draw91.6%1.09
- Double chance Real Madrid or Rayo Vallecano86.2%1.16
- Double chance Rayo Vallecano or draw22.2%4.51
- Draw no bet Real Madrid90.3%1.11
- Draw no bet Rayo Vallecano9.7%10.32
Goals
- Over 0.597.4%1.03
- Over 1.589.5%1.12
- Over 2.573.1%1.37
- Over 3.552.6%1.90
- Over 4.533.1%3.02
- Under 1.510.5%9.56
- Under 2.526.9%3.71
- Under 3.547.4%2.11
Both teams to score
- Yes56.3%1.78
- No43.7%2.29
- Yes and over 2.550.1%1.99
- Real Madrid win and yes39.6%2.52
- Draw and yes11.2%8.89
- Rayo Vallecano win and yes5.4%18.51
Team goals
- Real Madrid over 0.594.5%1.06
- Real Madrid over 1.578.5%1.27
- Real Madrid over 2.555.4%1.81
- Rayo Vallecano over 0.559.2%1.69
- Rayo Vallecano over 1.522.7%4.41
- Rayo Vallecano over 2.56.2%16.02
- Real Madrid clean sheet40.8%2.45
- Rayo Vallecano clean sheet5.5%18.16
- Real Madrid win to nil38.2%2.62
- Rayo Vallecano win to nil3.0%33.88
Handicap
- Real Madrid −1.558.6%1.71
- Real Madrid −2.537.8%2.65
- Rayo Vallecano +1.541.4%2.42
- Rayo Vallecano +2.562.2%1.61
- Rayo Vallecano −1.52.6%38.31
- Real Madrid +1.597.4%1.03
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record La Liga 2026-2027
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored45
Favourite won42.2%
Avg chance given to result39.8%
1X2 Brier0.603
Over 2.5 called right55.6%
BTTS called right55.6%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 10 | 38.9% | 20.0% |
| 40–50% | 18 | 44.9% | 33.3% |
| 50–60% | 10 | 55.0% | 50.0% |
| 60–70% | 3 | 65.7% | 66.7% |
| 70–80% | 2 | 76.1% | 100.0% |
| 80%+ | 2 | 82.8% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 26 of 45 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.6264 | 0.6278 |
| Avg chance given to result | 38.6% | 38.9% |
| Favourite won | 38.5% | 50.0% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 26 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 45 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.