Real Madrid
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Real Madrid were clear favourites.
Real Madrid were the stronger side on L90 Strength (89 vs 52). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Real Madrid. Real Madrid had 4 days of rest, Real Sociedad 5 and had to travel 352 km. Conditions were neutral.
Away travel352 kmRest days4 · 5Matches / 14d1 · 1
Real Madrid75%
Draw15%
Real Sociedad10%
Real Madrid73%
Draw17%
Real Sociedad10%
Real Madrid76%
Draw15%
Real Sociedad9%
Real Madrid68%
Draw18%
Real Sociedad14%
Real Madrid74%
Draw16%
Real Sociedad10%
Over 2.5 67%
Both score 53%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Madrid)
24°COvercast
- Precipitation 0.0 mm
- Wind 12 km/h
- Humidity 40%
Referee · SpainMateo Busquets Ferrer
- Cards per match 5.8
- Penalties per match 0.29
- Matches 41
Team strength
Real Madrid
Real Sociedad
89
L90 StrengthIn forecast
52
89
Current StrengthIn forecast
58
89
AttackIn forecast
62
85
DefenceIn forecast
48
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisReal Sociedad
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Real MadridReal Sociedad
—
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
—
—
Goals concededVia Att/Def
—
—
xGVia Att/Def
—
—
xG allowedVia Att/Def
—
—
Goals minus xGContext
—
—
Scored inContext
—
—
Clean sheetsContext
—
—
ShotsContext
—
—
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
—
—
On target shareContext
—
—
Shots in the boxContext
—
—
Box shareContext
—
—
ConversionContext
—
—
OffsidesContext
—
—
Shots allowedContext
—
—
On target allowedVia Att/Def
—
—
BlocksContext
—
—
Goalkeeper savesContext
—
—
Save rateContext
—
—
PossessionIn forecast
—
—
PassesContext
—
—
Accurate passesContext
—
—
Pass accuracyContext
—
—
Team ratingContext
—
—
FoulsContext
—
—
Fouls sufferedContext
—
—
Yellow cardsContext
—
—
Red cardsContext
—
1.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.70
1.68
xGVia Att/Def
1.36
1.08
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.46
+0.12
Goals minus xGContext
+0.14
90%
Scored inContext
70%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
15.60
ShotsContext
10.30
6.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.22
39%
On target shareContext
37%
10.70
Shots in the boxContext
6.50
71%
Box shareContext
64%
12%
ConversionContext
15%
2.89
OffsidesContext
3.38
13.00
Shots allowedContext
15.70
3.90
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.44
3.50
BlocksContext
4.00
3.11
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.38
76%
Save rateContext
75%
57%
PossessionIn forecast
54%
541
PassesContext
461
484
Accurate passesContext
388
89%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
7.06
Team ratingContext
6.79
9.70
FoulsContext
12.50
15.00
Fouls sufferedContext
13.70
1.90
Yellow cardsContext
3.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Real Madrid
W
Rest4 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km995 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 66 · 3 pts vs 1.2 for an average club · +1.0 vs expected
- W22 AugA · Espanyol2–12.0 xPts
Real Sociedad
L
Rest5 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel352 km1,482 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Form 42 · 0 pts vs 0.9 for an average club · -0.9 vs expected
- L21 AugA · Real Betis0–10.9 xPts
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Real Madrid |
Real Sociedad |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 4La Liga 2026-2027, 22 Aug | 5La Liga 2026-2027, 21 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 352 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 995 km | 1,482 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 1 | 1 / 1 / 1 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 3.8 | 2.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Real Madrid
Confirmed XI
1T. Courtois(G)
18Álvaro Fernández
4D. Huijsen
16I. Konaté
24D. Dumfries
20Bernardo Silva
8F. Valverde
7Vinícius
5J. Bellingham
15A. Güler
10K. Mbappé
Real Sociedad
Confirmed XI
1Álex Remiro(G)
17Sergio Gómez
31Jon Martín
34Luken Beitia
2J. Aramburu
8Beñat Turrientes
21Y. Herrera
12Job Ochieng
24L. Sučić
14T. Kubo
10Mikel Oyarzabal
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Real Madrid
Absences are shown before kick-off
Real Sociedad
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Real Madrid-1.1 pp
- Draw+0.5 pp
- Real Sociedad+0.6 pp
Home / Away this season
Real Madrid · Home
No home games yet this season.
Real Sociedad · Away
0.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-1
- Scored
- 0.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 10 of 12 meetings
8 Real Madrid wins1 draws1 Real Sociedad wins
Goals per game1.90 – 0.60
Over 2.540%
Both scored40%
Clean sheets50% · 20%
- 14 Feb 2026Real Madrid4–1Real Sociedad
- 13 Sep 2025Real Sociedad1–2Real Madrid
- 24 May 2025Real Madrid2–0Real Sociedad
- 14 Sep 2024Real Sociedad0–2Real Madrid
- 26 Apr 2024Real Sociedad0–1Real Madrid
- 17 Sep 2023Real Madrid2–1Real Sociedad
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Real Madrid | Real Sociedad | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.00 | 0.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 1.00 | 3.44 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 0% | |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 0% | 67% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 0% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 100% | |
| Games | 1 | 1 |
| Real Madrid | Real Sociedad | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.60 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.70 | |
| Match goals | 2.60 | 3.20 | 3.44 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 40% | 67% |
| Over 3.5 | 10% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Real Madrid | Real Sociedad | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | — | 5.00 | |
| Corners conceded | — | 4.00 | |
| Match total | — | 9.00 | 9.53 |
| Over 8.5 | — | 100% 1/1 | |
| Over 9.5 | — | 0% 0/1 | |
| Over 10.5 | — | 0% 0/1 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.00 | 3.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 5.00 | 3.00 | |
| Match total | 6.00 | 6.00 | 5.07 |
| Over 3.5 | 100% 1/1 | 100% 1/1 | |
| Over 4.5 | 100% 1/1 | 100% 1/1 | |
| Real Madrid | Real Sociedad | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.67 | 5.20 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.56 | 4.00 | |
| Match total | 10.23 | 9.20 | 9.53 |
| Over 8.5 | 78% 7/9 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 6/9 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 67% 6/9 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 3.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.90 | 2.90 | |
| Match total | 3.90 | 6.00 | 5.07 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 100% 10/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Mateo Busquets Ferrer Spain · 41 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards5.39league 4.76
Red cards0.37league 0.24
Cards 5+68%league 59%
Fouls24.3league 26.8
Penalties0.29league 0.47
Home wins39%league 35%
Real Madrid3 with this referee
Record3-0-0
Cards · opp.1.0 · 1.3
Pens for · against2 · 0
- W1 Nov 25H · Valencia4–01
- W18 May 25A · Sevilla2–01
- W14 May 24H · Alaves5–01
Real Sociedad7 with this referee
Record1-2-4
Cards · opp.3.3 · 3.3
Pens for · against3 · 0
- L22 Apr 26H · Getafe0–13
- W22 Nov 25A · Osasuna3–12
- L19 Sep 25A · Real Betis1–36
- L23 Apr 25A · Alaves0–15
- L2 Mar 24A · Sevilla2–32
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Real Madrid1 games · scored 2 · conceded 1
1
0-15
1
16-30
31-45
46-60
61-75
1
76-90
Real Sociedad1 games · scored 0 · conceded 1
0-15
16-30
31-45
46-60
1
61-75
76-90
Real Madrid10 games · scored 18 · conceded 12
4
2
0-15
3
2
16-30
3
2
31-45
4
46-60
1
1
61-75
3
5
76-90
Real Sociedad10 games · scored 15 · conceded 17
2
2
0-15
5
4
16-30
1
31-45
2
2
46-60
2
3
61-75
4
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
