Real Sociedad vs Athletic Club – 1 Nov 2025

La Liga Gameweek 11 Sat, Nov 1 · 17:30 Reale Arena, Donostia-San Sebastián

Real Sociedad 17th · 9 pts · 10 played WLLDW

3–2Full time

Athletic Club 9th · 14 pts · 10 played DLWDL

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

It was too close to call.

Athletic Club were the stronger side on L90 Strength (65 vs 50). Absences weigh more on Athletic Club. Real Sociedad had 7.9 days of rest, Athletic Club 7 and had to travel 77 km.

Away travel77 kmRest days7.9 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2

Real Sociedad36%

Draw28%

Athletic Club36%

Expected goals 1.26 – 1.28

Real Sociedad35%

Draw27%

Athletic Club38%

Expected goals 1.31 – 1.36

Real Sociedad35%

Draw28%

Athletic Club37%

Expected goals 1.23 – 1.28

Real Sociedad29%

Draw28%

Athletic Club43%

Expected goals 1.13 – 1.44

Real Sociedad36%

Draw27%

Athletic Club37%

Expected goals 1.34 – 1.36

Over 2.5 47% Both score 52% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Donostia-San Sebastián)

No weather data yet

Referee · SpainJosé Luis Munuera Montero

Cards per match 4.9
Penalties per match 0.14
Matches 29

Team strength

Real Sociedad

Athletic Club

50 L90 StrengthIn forecast 65

58 Current StrengthIn forecast 53

62 AttackIn forecast 51

48 DefenceIn forecast 64

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Real Sociedad

Attack—

Defense risk—

Athletic Club

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Real Sociedad

Athletic Club

1.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.90

1.40 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.00

1.26 xGVia Att/Def 1.23

1.30 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.74

-0.26 Goals minus xGContext -0.33

80% Scored inContext 50%

10% Clean sheetsContext 20%

13.50 ShotsContext 12.40

4.30 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.00

32% On target shareContext 32%

8.70 Shots in the boxContext 8.56

66% Box shareContext 63%

7% ConversionContext 7%

3.29 OffsidesContext 2.00

12.20 Shots allowedContext 9.10

3.70 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.40

4.13 BlocksContext 2.88

3.14 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.60

65% Save rateContext 77%

52% PossessionIn forecast 52%

434 PassesContext 431

361 Accurate passesContext 355

83% Pass accuracyContext 82%

6.75 Team ratingContext 6.80

15.50 FoulsContext 12.10

10.60 Fouls sufferedContext 13.50

2.20 Yellow cardsContext 1.60

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.20

This league season, per match · 10 and 10 games

1.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.70

1.40 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.40

1.26 xGVia Att/Def 1.12

1.30 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.84

-0.26 Goals minus xGContext -0.42

80% Scored inContext 40%

10% Clean sheetsContext 10%

13.50 ShotsContext 12.20

4.30 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.70

32% On target shareContext 30%

8.70 Shots in the boxContext 8.22

66% Box shareContext 62%

7% ConversionContext 6%

3.29 OffsidesContext 2.17

12.20 Shots allowedContext 9.50

3.70 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.20

4.13 BlocksContext 2.63

3.14 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.00

65% Save rateContext 71%

52% PossessionIn forecast 52%

434 PassesContext 440

361 Accurate passesContext 364

83% Pass accuracyContext 83%

6.75 Team ratingContext 6.74

15.50 FoulsContext 13.00

10.60 Fouls sufferedContext 13.40

2.20 Yellow cardsContext 1.60

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Real Sociedad

Rest7.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km1,127 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Athletic Club

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel77 km1,173 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Real Sociedad	Athletic Club
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7.9La Liga 2025-2026, 24 Oct	7La Liga 2025-2026, 25 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	77 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	1,127 km	1,173 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 2 / 3	0 / 2 / 2
Next matchdays after this one	6.1	7.8

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Real Sociedad Confirmed XI

4-1-4-1

1Álex Remiro(G)

17Sergio Gómez 5Zubeldia 31Jon Martín 2J. Aramburu

4Jon Gorrotxategi

7Barrenetxea 18Carlos Soler 23Brais Méndez 11Gonçalo Guedes

10Mikel Oyarzabal

+6 more reported missing outside this XI

Athletic Club Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1Unai Simón(G)

17Yuri 14A. Laporte 3Dani Vivian 2Andoni Gorosabel

16Ruíz de Galarreta 18Mikel Jauregizar

23Robert Navarro 8Oihan Sancet 7Álex Berenguer

11Gorka Guruzeta

+6 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Real Sociedad Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Athletic Club Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Real Sociedad+0.8 pp
Draw-0.2 pp
Athletic Club-0.7 pp

Home / Away this season

Real Sociedad · Home 1.40points per game · 5 home games

W-D-L: 2-1-2
Scored: 1.20
Conceded: 1.20

Athletic Club · Away 1.00points per game · 4 away games

W-D-L: 1-1-2
Scored: 0.50
Conceded: 1.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 5 this season

Opponent	Real Sociedad	Athletic Club
Sevilla	W 2–1 H	W 3–2 H
Rayo Vallecano	L 0–1 H	W 1–0 H
Mallorca	W 1–0 H	W 2–1 H
Real Betis	L 1–3 A	W 2–1 A
Valencia	D 1–1 A	L 0–2 A
Points	7 of 15 · 1.40 per game	12 of 15 · 2.40 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings

3 Real Sociedad wins3 draws4 Athletic Club wins

Goals per game1.00 – 1.20 Over 2.540% Both scored40% Clean sheets30% · 40%

4 May 2025Real Sociedad0–0Athletic Club
24 Nov 2024Athletic Club1–0Real Sociedad
13 Jan 2024Athletic Club2–1Real Sociedad
30 Sep 2023Real Sociedad3–0Athletic Club
15 Apr 2023Athletic Club2–0Real Sociedad
14 Jan 2023Real Sociedad3–1Athletic Club

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Real Sociedad	Athletic Club	Forecast
Scored per game	1.00	0.90
Conceded per game	1.40	1.00
Match goals	2.40	1.90	2.54
Over 1.5	70%	50%
Over 2.5	50%	30%	47%
Over 3.5	20%	10%
Both teams scored	70%	40%	52%
Clean sheets	10%	20%
Failed to score	20%	50%
Games	10	10

	Real Sociedad	Athletic Club	Forecast
Scored per game	1.00	0.90
Conceded per game	1.40	1.00
Match goals	2.40	1.90	2.54
Over 1.5	70%	50%
Over 2.5	50%	30%	47%
Over 3.5	20%	10%
Both teams scored	70%	40%	52%
Clean sheets	10%	20%
Failed to score	20%	50%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Real Sociedad	Athletic Club	League
Corners
Corners won	6.90	5.70
Corners conceded	4.70	4.10
Match total	11.60	9.80	9.86
Over 8.5	80% 8/10	70% 7/10
Over 9.5	80% 8/10	50% 5/10
Over 10.5	70% 7/10	50% 5/10
Cards
Cards	2.20	1.80
Opponent cards	2.20	2.70
Match total	4.40	4.50	4.34
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	20% 2/10	30% 3/10

	Real Sociedad	Athletic Club	League
Corners
Corners won	6.90	5.00
Corners conceded	4.70	3.89
Match total	11.60	8.89	9.86
Over 8.5	80% 8/10	56% 5/9
Over 9.5	80% 8/10	44% 4/9
Over 10.5	70% 7/10	44% 4/9
Cards
Cards	2.20	1.70
Opponent cards	2.20	2.50
Match total	4.40	4.20	4.34
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	50% 5/10
Over 4.5	20% 2/10	30% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · José Luis Munuera Montero Spain · 29 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.59league 4.08

Red cards0.28league 0.26

Cards 5+55%league 45%

Fouls25.4league 24.7

Penalties0.14league 0.35

Home wins34%league 47%

Real Sociedad3 with this referee

Record0-0-3 Cards · opp.3.3 · 2.7 Pens for · against0 · 1

L26 Apr 24H · Real Madrid0–13
L13 Jan 24A · Athletic Club1–24
L8 Oct 23A · Atletico Madrid1–23

Athletic Club5 with this referee

Record4-1-0 Cards · opp.1.6 · 2.0 Pens for · against0 · 0 Reds1

D23 Sep 25H · Girona1–10
W11 May 25H · Alaves1–01
W25 May 24A · Rayo Vallecano1–01
W13 Jan 24H · Real Sociedad2–11
W19 Aug 23A · Osasuna2–05

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.