Real Sociedad vs Atletico Madrid – 13 Sep 2026

La Liga Gameweek 5 Sun, Sep 13 · 20:00 Reale Arena, Donostia-San Sebastián

Real Sociedad 11th · 7 pts · 5 played LLWDW

0–3Full time

Atletico Madrid 8th · 7 pts · 4 played WDWL

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

It was too close to call.

Atletico Madrid were the stronger side on L90 Strength (75 vs 54). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Real Sociedad. Real Sociedad had 6 days of rest, Atletico Madrid 4 and had to travel 352 km. Conditions were neutral.

Away travel352 kmRest days6 · 4Matches / 14d2 · 2

Real Sociedad36%

Draw24%

Atletico Madrid40%

Expected goals 1.45 – 1.53

Real Sociedad31%

Draw26%

Atletico Madrid43%

Expected goals 1.21 – 1.48

Real Sociedad36%

Draw25%

Atletico Madrid39%

Expected goals 1.45 – 1.50

Real Sociedad29%

Draw24%

Atletico Madrid47%

Expected goals 1.30 – 1.72

Real Sociedad36%

Draw24%

Atletico Madrid39%

Expected goals 1.44 – 1.52

Over 2.5 57% Both score 60% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Donostia-San Sebastián)

23°CClear

Precipitation 0.0 mm
Wind 3 km/h
Humidity 79%

Referee · SpainJuan Martinez Munuera

Cards per match 4.5
Penalties per match 0.38
Matches 48

Team strength

Real Sociedad

Atletico Madrid

54 L90 StrengthIn forecast 75

58 Current StrengthIn forecast 81

62 AttackIn forecast 82

48 DefenceIn forecast 87

61 Form indexContext 61

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Real Sociedad

Attack—

Defense risk—

Atletico Madrid

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Real Sociedad

Atletico Madrid

1.20 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.75

1.60 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.50

1.08 xGVia Att/Def 0.91

1.61 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.52

+0.12 Goals minus xGContext +0.84

60% Scored inContext 75%

20% Clean sheetsContext 25%

13.00 ShotsContext 15.25

5.40 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.00

42% On target shareContext 33%

7.80 Shots in the boxContext 8.25

60% Box shareContext 57%

9% ConversionContext 12%

2.00 OffsidesContext 2.00

15.20 Shots allowedContext 12.25

6.60 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.00

3.20 BlocksContext 3.75

5.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.50

76% Save rateContext 63%

49% PossessionIn forecast 56%

476 PassesContext 551

407 Accurate passesContext 485

86% Pass accuracyContext 88%

6.92 Team ratingContext 6.94

12.40 FoulsContext 12.75

10.60 Fouls sufferedContext 13.00

2.20 Yellow cardsContext 2.00

0.20 Red cardsContext 0.25

This league season, per match · 5 and 4 games

1.30 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.20

1.70 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.60

1.07 xGVia Att/Def 1.16

1.77 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.59

+0.23 Goals minus xGContext +0.04

70% Scored inContext 70%

10% Clean sheetsContext 20%

10.50 ShotsContext 12.90

4.67 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.20

40% On target shareContext 33%

6.60 Shots in the boxContext 8.00

64% Box shareContext 64%

12% ConversionContext 9%

3.17 OffsidesContext 2.20

16.80 Shots allowedContext 13.80

6.20 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.70

4.00 BlocksContext 3.80

4.60 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.56

74% Save rateContext 70%

51% PossessionIn forecast 52%

474 PassesContext 496

404 Accurate passesContext 431

85% Pass accuracyContext 87%

6.84 Team ratingContext 6.87

13.20 FoulsContext 11.60

11.30 Fouls sufferedContext 11.10

2.80 Yellow cardsContext 2.10

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Real Sociedad LLWDW

Rest6 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km1,143 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 61 · 7 pts vs 5.8 for an average club · +0.8 vs expected

W7 SepA · Elche3–21.4 xPts
D3 SepH · Celta Vigo0–01.8 xPts
W29 AugH · Espanyol2–11.6 xPts
L26 AugA · Real Madrid1–40.5 xPts
L21 AugA · Real Betis0–10.9 xPts

Atletico Madrid WDWLL

Rest4 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel352 km3,538 km in 14d

Schedule load16%Low

Form 61 · 7 pts vs 5.7 for an average club · -0.4 vs expected

L9 SepA · Liverpool1–20.8 xPts
L5 SepA · Athletic Club0–31.4 xPts
W29 AugA · Sevilla3–11.4 xPts
D23 AugH · Villarreal2–21.7 xPts
W19 AugH · Malaga2–02.0 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Real Sociedad	Atletico Madrid
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 16
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	6La Liga 2026-2027, 7 Sep	4UEFA Champions League 2026-2027 - League phase, 9 Sep
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	352 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	1,143 km	3,538 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 5	1 / 2 / 5
Next matchdays after this one	4	2.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Real Sociedad Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1Álex Remiro(G)

17Sergio Gómez 19M. Sarr 34Luken Beitia 2J. Aramburu

18Carlos Soler 21Y. Herrera

11Gonçalo Guedes 24L. Sučić 7Barrenetxea

10Mikel Oyarzabal

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Atletico Madrid Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

13J. Oblak(G)

17D. Hancko 21C. Romero 18Marc Pubill

22Álex Grimaldo 23M. Hjulmand 14Marcos Llorente 20G. Simeone

10Álex Baena 7K. Lee

11A. Lookman

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Real Sociedad Absences are shown before kick-off

Atletico Madrid Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Real Sociedad-0.4 pp
Draw-0.2 pp
Atletico Madrid+0.7 pp

Home / Away this season

Real Sociedad · Home 2.00points per game · 2 home games

W-D-L: 1-1-0
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 0.50

Atletico Madrid · Away 1.50points per game · 2 away games

W-D-L: 1-0-1
Scored: 1.50
Conceded: 2.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 10 of 12 meetings

0 Real Sociedad wins4 draws6 Atletico Madrid wins

Goals per game1.00 – 2.00 Over 2.560% Both scored80% Clean sheets0% · 20%

7 Mar 2026Atletico Madrid3–2Real Sociedad
4 Jan 2026Real Sociedad1–1Atletico Madrid
10 May 2025Atletico Madrid4–0Real Sociedad
6 Oct 2024Real Sociedad1–1Atletico Madrid
25 May 2024Real Sociedad0–2Atletico Madrid
8 Oct 2023Atletico Madrid2–1Real Sociedad

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Real Sociedad	Atletico Madrid	Forecast
Scored per game	1.20	1.75
Conceded per game	1.60	1.50
Match goals	2.80	3.25	2.99
Over 1.5	60%	100%
Over 2.5	60%	75%	57%
Over 3.5	40%	50%
Both teams scored	60%	50%	60%
Clean sheets	20%	25%
Failed to score	40%	25%
Games	5	4

	Real Sociedad	Atletico Madrid	Forecast
Scored per game	1.30	1.40
Conceded per game	1.70	1.50
Match goals	3.00	2.90	2.99
Over 1.5	70%	80%
Over 2.5	50%	60%	57%
Over 3.5	40%	30%
Both teams scored	70%	50%	60%
Clean sheets	10%	30%
Failed to score	30%	20%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Real Sociedad	Atletico Madrid	League
Corners
Corners won	7.40	5.25
Corners conceded	4.00	2.75
Match total	11.40	8.00	10.13
Over 8.5	100% 5/5	25% 1/4
Over 9.5	80% 4/5	25% 1/4
Over 10.5	60% 3/5	25% 1/4
Cards
Cards	2.40	2.25
Opponent cards	3.40	1.75
Match total	5.80	4.00	4.43
Over 3.5	100% 5/5	75% 3/4
Over 4.5	100% 5/5	50% 2/4

	Real Sociedad	Atletico Madrid	League
Corners
Corners won	5.50	5.56
Corners conceded	3.70	4.78
Match total	9.20	10.34	10.13
Over 8.5	60% 6/10	56% 5/9
Over 9.5	40% 4/10	56% 5/9
Over 10.5	30% 3/10	56% 5/9
Cards
Cards	2.90	2.30
Opponent cards	2.70	1.80
Match total	5.60	4.10	4.43
Over 3.5	100% 10/10	50% 5/10
Over 4.5	80% 8/10	40% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Juan Martinez Munuera Spain · 48 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.31league 4.18

Red cards0.19league 0.24

Cards 5+42%league 47%

Fouls26.2league 24.7

Penalties0.38league 0.33

Home wins52%league 47%

Real Sociedad4 with this referee

Record1-2-1 Cards · opp.2.3 · 2.5 Pens for · against0 · 1

L4 May 26A · Sevilla0–11
D4 Jan 26H · Atletico Madrid1–13
D19 Oct 25A · Celta Vigo1–13
W9 Mar 24A · Granada CF3–22

Atletico Madrid7 with this referee

Record5-2-0 Cards · opp.1.7 · 2.3 Pens for · against0 · 0 Reds1

D4 Jan 26A · Real Sociedad1–12
W27 Oct 25A · Real Betis2–01
D3 May 25A · Alaves0–02
W27 Apr 24H · Athletic Club3–13
W22 Jan 24A · Granada CF1–02

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.