Real Sociedad
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Real Sociedad
11th · 7 pts · 5 played
LLWDW
0–3Full time
Atletico Madrid
8th · 7 pts · 4 played
WDWL
Real Sociedad35.4%fair odds 2.82
Draw25.5%fair odds 3.92
Atletico Madrid39.0%fair odds 2.56
Expected goals1.45 – 1.53total 2.99
Likeliest score1–111.8%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Atletico Madrid
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Real Sociedad ↓ · Atletico Madrid → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 7.1 | 5.9 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 11.8 | 8.6 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 8.2 | 6.3 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Real Sociedad goals, columns Atletico Madrid goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–111.8%8.45
- 1–28.6%11.60
- 2–18.2%12.24
- 0–17.1%14.01
- 1–06.7%14.87
- 2–26.3%15.96
- 0–25.9%16.85
- 0–05.6%17.75
- 2–05.3%18.79
- 1–34.4%22.67
Winning margin
6.3%
Real Sociedad by 3+
fair 15.81
10.6%
Real Sociedad by 2
fair 9.47
18.6%
Real Sociedad by 1
fair 5.39
25.5%
Draw
fair 3.92
19.6%
Atletico Madrid by 1
fair 5.09
11.8%
Atletico Madrid by 2
fair 8.49
7.6%
Atletico Madrid by 3+
fair 13.12
Goal distribution
Total goals
6%0
14%1
23%2
22%3
17%4
18%5+
Real Sociedad goals
23%0
34%1
25%2
12%3
6%4+
Atletico Madrid goals
22%0
33%1
25%2
13%3
7%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Real Sociedad win | 35.4% | 35.6% | -0.1 pp |
| Draw | 25.5% | 25.7% | -0.1 pp |
| Atletico Madrid win | 39.0% | 38.8% | +0.3 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 57.4% | 56.8% | +0.6 pp |
| Both teams score | 60.7% | 60.2% | +0.5 pp |
| Expected goals Real Sociedad | 1.45 | 1.44 | +0.01 |
| Expected goals Atletico Madrid | 1.53 | 1.52 | +0.02 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Real Sociedad win35.4%2.82
- Draw25.5%3.92
- Atletico Madrid win39.0%2.56
- Double chance Real Sociedad or draw61.0%1.64
- Double chance Real Sociedad or Atletico Madrid74.5%1.34
- Double chance Atletico Madrid or draw64.6%1.55
- Draw no bet Real Sociedad47.6%2.10
- Draw no bet Atletico Madrid52.4%1.91
Goals
- Over 0.594.4%1.06
- Over 1.580.5%1.24
- Over 2.557.4%1.74
- Over 3.535.0%2.86
- Over 4.518.3%5.47
- Under 1.519.5%5.13
- Under 2.542.6%2.35
- Under 3.565.0%1.54
Both teams to score
- Yes60.7%1.65
- No39.3%2.55
- Yes and over 2.548.9%2.05
- Real Sociedad win and yes19.5%5.12
- Draw and yes19.9%5.03
- Atletico Madrid win and yes21.3%4.70
Team goals
- Real Sociedad over 0.576.6%1.31
- Real Sociedad over 1.542.6%2.34
- Real Sociedad over 2.518.0%5.57
- Atletico Madrid over 0.578.5%1.27
- Atletico Madrid over 1.545.4%2.20
- Atletico Madrid over 2.520.0%5.00
- Real Sociedad clean sheet21.5%4.64
- Atletico Madrid clean sheet23.4%4.28
- Real Sociedad win to nil15.9%6.28
- Atletico Madrid win to nil17.7%5.64
Handicap
- Real Sociedad −1.516.9%5.92
- Real Sociedad −2.56.3%15.81
- Atletico Madrid +1.583.1%1.20
- Atletico Madrid +2.593.7%1.07
- Atletico Madrid −1.519.4%5.16
- Real Sociedad +1.580.6%1.24
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record La Liga 2026-2027
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored49
Favourite won42.9%
Avg chance given to result40.8%
1X2 Brier0.590
Over 2.5 called right59.2%
BTTS called right57.1%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 11 | 38.9% | 18.2% |
| 40–50% | 19 | 44.7% | 31.6% |
| 50–60% | 10 | 55.0% | 50.0% |
| 60–70% | 3 | 65.7% | 66.7% |
| 70–80% | 4 | 76.4% | 100.0% |
| 80%+ | 2 | 82.8% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 30 of 49 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.6018 | 0.5986 |
| Avg chance given to result | 40.4% | 41.3% |
| Favourite won | 40.0% | 50.0% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 30 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 49 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.